Teddy Bridgewater could be considered a hedge quarterback at a discount — especially when compared with the Bears’ $10-million outlay for Andy Dalton or the Washington Football Team’s $10.537-million figure — including bonus — for Ryan Fitzpatrick.
At $3 million with the ability to go up to $4.5 million after the Panthers assumed a $7 million chunk of the remaining contract, Bridgewater is a bargain.
So, for the price of a sixth-round pick, Broncos got their competition.
What happens Thursday will determine with whom the competition takes place.
COMPETITION FOR DREW LOCK
If you believe the betting odds, this is the most likely outcome. Bridgewater enters and pushes the third-year veteran, with the Broncos either trading down or standing pat and picking from a group that could include offensive tackles Penei Sewell and Rashawn Slater, cornerbacks Patrick Surtain II and Jaycee Horn or linebacker Micah Parsons.
In a Lock-Bridgewater competition, Bridgewater specifically neutralizes one advantage Lock would have had: knowledge of the scheme and the coaches. Broncos offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur worked with the Minnesota Vikings in the 2016 and 2017 seasons after being dismissed by the Philadelphia Eagles following the 2015 season.
Lock obviously has the edge in terms of timing with the incumbent receivers, but if the Broncos opt for a true competition in which both quarterbacks split the time with the first-team offense, Bridgewater would have the opportunity to close that gap in a hurry.
At that point, Lock would need to show improvement in accuracy and in avoiding giveaways. These are areas in which Bridgewater has an objective advantage.
Among the 62 quarterbacks with at least 250 total plays — passes, rushing attempts and times sacked — in the last four seasons, here is where Bridgewater and Lock stack up in key metrics:
COMPLETION PERCENTAGE
Bridgewater: 68.3 percent, 2nd
Lock: 59.1 percent, 54th
INTERCEPTION RATE
Bridgewater: One every 47.5 attempts, 23rd
Lock: One every 33.3 attempts, 50th
FUMBLE RATE
Bridgewater: One every 121.9 plays, 10th
Lock: One every 62.3 plays, 43rd
TOTAL-GIVEAWAY (INT + FUMBLE) RATE
Bridgewater: One every 38.8 plays, 9th
Lock: One every 23.6 plays, 50th
TOUCHDOWN RATE
Bridgewater: One every 28.5 attempts, 48th
Lock: One every 26.0 attempts, 36th
SACK RATE
Bridgewater: One every 16.8 pass plays, 20th
Lock: One every 26.0 pass plays, 5th
YARDS PER ATTEMPT
Bridgewater: 7.34 yards, 23rd
Lock: 6.69 yards, 44th
PASSER RATING
Bridgewater: 92.5, 22nd
Lock: 79.1, 53rd
Lock has to make a significant level jump to even match Bridgewater’s play last year, Bridgewater is average, a fact I noted in this April 6 analysis:
In the end sum, his performance last year in Carolina was average. He ranked 17th of 33 eligible quarterbacks in ESPN’s QBR metric, and his season-long passer rating of 92.1 was 1.5 rating points below the league-wide mean. But average might be good enough for the Broncos to win.
That said, Bridgewater faded late last year when he returned after missing one game due to a sprained medial collateral ligament.
His completion percentage in the last five games dropped to 63 percent, which was lower than his rookie figure (although he still finished 2020 with a percentage of 69.1 despite the late fade). He also had at least one fumble or interception every 21.3 plays in those five games to close the year.
If Bridgewater looks like he did down the stretch, even moderate improvement for Lock would be enough to make him the Broncos’ starter heading into the 2021 season. But if Bridgewater’s form is more like it was before the MCL injury, Lock will have to make a dramatic leap in efficiency and accuracy to secure the job.
COMPETITION FOR A ROOKIE?
This is where projections come into play. If the Broncos determine that one of Justin Fields, Trey Lance or Mac Jones are likely to be better in two years than Lock would be, then the call becomes easy: pick a QB and have Bridgewater serve as the “bridge” — yes, pun intended — to the rookie quarterback.
Fields or Jones would provide an immediate push, and could even do enough to win the job by September or within the first two months of the season.
But Lance, a rookie from North Dakota State with just one full season of college experience, would be a logical fit with Bridgewater as the veteran mentor being the clear No. 1 quarterback for 2021.
If Bridgewater maintains his status as a league-average quarterback in terms of overall efficiency, that alone would be an upgrade for the Broncos.
With players returning from injuries and a fourth-place schedule that also includes four games against the tattered NFC East, Bridgewater playing to his career averages could elevate the Broncos to the 9-to-11-win range, placing them firmly in playoff contention.
The Broncos’ future would then be in place, with what would likely be a graceful transition to a young quarterback who would still have four more years of cost control when the 2022 campaign begins. They wouldn’t have to worry about trading up in the 2022 NFL Draft.
