There will probably never be another Denver Broncos team quite like the one that won Super Bowl 50. A hard-nosed defensive juggernaut with a veteran offense willing to do whatever it took to get Peyton Manning his second ring.

From stealing wins when they seemed all but dead in the water to beating Tom Brady and Cam Newton to a pulp, that team would out will opponents all while keeping fans on the edge of their seats right until the very end.

In the summer of 2016, the Broncos were seemingly playing with house money, who cared if they couldn’t lock down Brock Osweiler as their QB of the future. That Broncos team was going to win for a long time, because they didn’t need a stinking quarterback, after all, they’d just hoisted the Lombardi with an aging Peyton Manning who was a shell of himself.

The more intriguing part of that offseason was that if the Broncos did find a QB of the future, it was over, they’d never lose the AFC West again.

Little did we know then, that summer would be the fork in the road of John Elway’s successful tenure as a GM.

After making a move for Mark Sanchez in what was deemed “the first step in the process,” No. 7 identified his quarterback of the future as Paxton Lynch, trading up to get the big-armed, athletic gunslinger. A move that was lauded by most analysts as a terrific maneuver by Elway, who, after being pushed into a corner due to losing Osweiler, got his quarterback of the future with plenty of upside.

Lynch seemed to have it all on paper—a cannon for an arm, accuracy, athleticism, a prototypical frame. Everything. Well, except for that internal fire and desire that separates all-time greats from prospects.

John swung and missed, and he’s kept on swinging ever since, mostly on veterans like Case Keenum and Joe Flacco, not exactly long-term solutions at the position. 

Finding a young quarterback on a rookie contract—arguably the most valuable asset in sports—still eludes the Broncos, and it’s legitimate to wonder if Elway, a legendary QB with the ultimate cannon for an arm who was never afraid to throw darts in tight windows, has become a bit gun shy in nabbing a successor under center.

Lynch specifically seems to have made Elway almost shell shocked as he passed on a similarly-talented, small-school quarterback in Josh Allen, along with Josh Rosen, in the loaded class of 2018.

Once again, in 2019, Denver’s front office may be faced with a tough decision if Drew Lock, a strong-armed athletic quarterback from the SEC, or Dwayne Haskins fall to Denver at 10th overall.

A tough decision in a loaded defensive draft but the opportunity cost of passing on Lock, and especially Haskins, could be quite damaging to the Broncos future.

Some think that going after a young quarterback would go against Elway’s win-now approach. Especially with rampant speculation that Elway won’t be in his current position for the long haul. However, passing on a quarterback in the interest of Elway’s GM legacy would be a mistake, as historically pro sports franchises make moves based on a decision maker’s short-term success are doomed to pay the consequences long term.

With Flacco on the roster, Elway can compete now and still groom his passer of the future, similarly to how the Kansas City Chiefs did with Patrick Mahomes developing behind Alex Smith.

Waiting for the much-hyped 2020 quarterback class may also be an option but it’ll be a risky proposition as projecting quarterbacks a year out is never easy. Even if Tua Tagovailoa is who we think he is a year from now, we may find that he’s well out of Denver’s reach. It’s also entirely possible that no QB after Tua guarantees any greater assurance of success than Haskins or Lock do now.

With quarterbacks, you’re darned if you do and darned if you don’t, passing on a good one is as costly as taking a bad one, if not more.

Haskins, for all his athletic flaws and lack of experience, gave Kyler Murray and Tagovailoa a run for their money as the best quarterback in college football last year, ending the season on a hot streak that was better than either of his fellow Heisman finalists.

Lock,  on his end, showed growth against pressure while also developing his ability to read defenses, showing poise and high IQ against some of the top units he faced in Kentucky and Florida, leading Missouri to two huge upsets and a nationally-ranked season. You couldn’t say that about two other big names in the 2020 class, as Justin Herbert fell apart by the end of 2018 and Jake Fromm, who remained inconsistent and uninspiring while having nowhere close to the arm talent Lock possess.

Both Fromm and Herbert, like Lock did this past season, can improve and change those narratives, or they could fall apart and never reach the first round. Like Haskins or Murray did this year, someone could emerge to be the second-best quarterback behind Tua, but there are certainly no guarantees, it is all a big gamble on the unknown.

Passing on a quarterback this season doesn’t give the Broncos any assurances, only more doubt as to what they’ll do to fill the long-term void behind center. Not to mention, the 10th-overall selection in 2019 might prove to be more valuable than picking in the top 20 a year from now, just as picking in the top five in 2018 was. 

If Elway has learned his lesson, he’ll first look beyond the traits of all these prospects and try to find the ones who, unlike Lynch, have that inner fire that can lead them to be stars. If that guy isn’t there this year, so be it, but the Broncos better have searched far and wide before they turn their attention to 2020.

If a big-armed, vertical passer is what Elway craves, then Haskins and Lock fit the bill.

The man who brought in Peyton Manning is also the one who missed on Lynch and Keenum, who he chooses next as his long-term plan at the position will define Elway’s legacy as a GM. Those are the stakes the next two drafts—the fate of a legend’s legacy and the future of the franchise.

Previous mistakes won’t define Elway’s legacy as a GM unless he lets them. Moving on from missing on Lynch is key, but it can’t mean being scared to take the next big-armed, athletic quarterback just because that’s what Paxton was. Take that approach, and you just might miss out on the next Mahomes.