Midseason brings frustration, but hope as well.
And hope starts with comparing the landscape now with just after the Broncos’ 43-16 thumping at the hands of the Kansas City Chiefs.
A fortnight ago, it was fair to fret over the collective lack of production from the offense, particularly in games that Drew Lock started and finished. Dating back to Week 17 of last year, the Broncos’ offensive output in Lock’s four complete games through the Chiefs loss was 16, 14, 18 and 16 points.
Now? The early games are a concern, and there is the potential for a false positive in the offense rolling to touchdowns when trailing by two or more scores in the final third of the game. All but one of Denver’s seven touchdowns in the past two games came in that exact scenario, with the Broncos trailing by 21, 14, 10, 6, 21, 21 and 14 points when they found the end zone.
But the Broncos’ 58-point offensive output in Weeks 8 and 9 is their best two-week stretch in 46 games, since their offense accounted for 59 points in the first two weeks of the 2017 season. (The Broncos scored 61 points in Weeks 13 and 14 of last year, but the offense accounted for 54 of those, with seven coming via a Kareem Jackson defensive touchdown after a lateral from Jeremiah Attaochu.)
Furthermore, the late surges of the last two weeks combined with a 37-point outburst in Week 4 with Brett Rypien at quarterback against the New York Jets provide the primary thrust to a 21.8-points-per-game average that has the Broncos on pace for their best season-long point total since Super Bowl 50.
In league rankings, that total won’t raise eyebrows; the Broncos rank 27th in average points per game, ahead of only the Giants, Patriots, Bears, the Football Team and the Jets.
But for the Broncos, it’s a step forward.
Imagine if they can take some of their late-game form and apply it to the rest of each contest. That’s what Lock knows to be essential, starting with having a greater sense of urgency.
“As far as our story goes, I guess urgency goes with the first half. It starts with [Wednesday’s] practice,” he said. “There needs to be a sense of urgency, a sense of pressure and a sense of, ‘Let’s go and get this thing done early.’ Whatever we were doing last week and the week before, let’s keep building our prep, but let’s find something more to add on to it, whether it’s this or that in practice, or this or that in your personal studies at home.
“There are certain things we might be able to get done and keep pushing to make this go forward a little bit.”
The number to watch: 60 percent
It is generally considered the baseline completion percentage for quarterbacks today. It is the primary metric that Lock needs to improve, and with more consistent footwork, he should see this rise in the balance of the season.
The league average is 65.8 percent. Lock’s current rate of 56.5 percent ranks last among 37 quarterbacks with at least 80 attempts so far this season, and makes him one of just five quarterbacks to not hit the 60-percent baseline. (Mitchell Trubisky, Sam Darnold, Carson Wentz and Joe Flacco are the others.)
A high yards-per-attempt figure can compensate for this, but here, too, Lock comes up short; his average of 6.49 yards per attempt is 30th among those 37 QBs.
So, what of the impact of dropped passes? Lock has endured a drop rate of one every 10.8 catchable passes that is 33rd among 37 QBs with 80-plus attempts, according to the drop statistics compiled by Pro Football Focus. Only Baker Mayfield, Daniel Jones, Wentz and Andy Dalton have dealt with drops more frequently.
The league-wide drop rate is one drop every 14.8 catchable passes. So to have a drop rate roughly in line with the league average, Broncos receiving targets would need to have caught three more passes over the course of the season.
Three more receptions would have modest-but-noticeable impact on Lock’s completion percentage, taking it from 56.5 to 58.1 percent. That would take him from 37th to 36th, ahead of only Flacco.
That isn’t going to be good enough, especially when compared with second-year quarterbacks over the last decade.
Of the 43 second-year quarterbacks from 2010-19 who attempted at least 200 passes in their second NFL seasons, 19 failed to hit the 60-percent threshold. Of those 19, only four eventually established themselves as at least mid-level NFL starters: Cam Newton, Sam Bradford, Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield (and the jury is out on the last two, although signs are encouraging). The other quarterbacks in that group are either out of the NFL or eventually settled as backups.
Get to 60 percent, and Lock reaches a tier that yields increased odds of success.
The contract status to watch: Garett Bolles
A selection to Pro Football Focus’ midseason All-NFL first team came as no surprise given his outstanding play in seven of eight games. Only a penalty-marred Week 8 game against the Los Angeles Chargers — a game he played without offensive-line coach Mike Munchak on the sideline due to COVID-19 — is worthy of the dustbin.
His PFF value is likely to be a bullet point in contract discussions, as it often is for players ranked highly by the service. It ensures that if the Broncos do not re-sign him, someone on the market will likely be willing to meet a price that would place Bolles among the highest-paid tackles in the sport. The Broncos have the franchise tag in their back pocket that they can use to keep Bolles in 2021 if no deal can be reached.
But for the long term, it has become clear that with every outstanding game Bolles has, his price tag rises.
The stars in the making: Noah Fant and Jerry Jeudy
Fant has persevered through an ankle injury, showing his explosiveness once again on a 32-yard catch-and-run last Sunday in Atlanta.
But he is also playing cleaner football. His drop rate (as compiled by Pro Football Focus) has improved, from one every 14.3 catchable passes last year to one every 17.0 this season. He also has just one penalty this year — a false start against Tampa Bay — compared with eight last season, including five in the first eight games.
His improvement as a run blocker, particularly since returning from an ankle injury suffered against the Jets, is turning him into a dependable every-down contributor.
But Fant will make his career as a receiving target. If he plays the rest of the season at his current per-game pace of 4.57 catches and 49.9 yards per game, he will finish with 69 catches for 749 yards — which would be the best season for a Broncos tight end since Julius Thomas in 2013.
Jeudy could be poised to complement Fant perfectly.
With Fant flourishing on short-to-intermediate routes outside the numbers, Jeudy can capitalize vertically, as he did last Sunday in Atlanta. His drop rate of one every 7.0 catchable passes must improve, but he’s headed in the right direction; after three drops in Weeks 1 and 2, he has just two drops since then, giving him a drop rate of one every 12.0 catchable passes from Week 3 onward.
Their growth could also help Lock, as well. Even if the Broncos can’t get back into viable playoff contention, the progress of Lock, Jeudy and Fant will ensure that the last eight games provides value for the future.
