ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — As the Denver Broncos enter the final quarter of the 2017 season, their goals have drastically shifted from the beginning of the season—when they had their eyes on the playoffs—to now eyeing a top-five draft pick.
Sunday’s game against the New York Jets could likely go a long way in determining the Broncos’ most recent goal. Currently sitting at 5-7, the Jets have a two-game lead on the Broncos. If Denver beats the Jets, then the two teams will move within one game of each other with Denver owning the tiebreaker. If they lose to New York, however, then the Jets will be guaranteed to finish above the Broncos in the standings.
Here are the four numbers that will determine not only Sunday’s game, but will go a long way in determining how close Denver will be to drafting No. 1 overall in April.
92
When the Jets find success rushing the ball, they typically win. Unfortunately for the Jets, they are in the middle of the pack in terms of running the ball—averaging 106.8 yards per game, putting them at 18th in the league.
In four of the Jets five wins, they’ve had more than 92 yards on the ground. In their five wins, they’ve averaged 148.8 yards per game, including monster performances of 256 and 194 yards in individual games.
However, in their seven losses, it’s been a completely different story, as they’ve only had more than 92 rushing yards just twice. In their seven losses, their 76.9 rushing yards per game is nearly half of what they average in their wins.
One of the Broncos’ greatest strengths this season has in fact been their ability to run the ball as they’ve had more than 92 rushing yards in eight of their twelve games.
21
When it comes to winning and losing games, only one number truly matters: the final score. Through the first 13 weeks of the NFL season, the Jets’ success directly correlated with one number: 21. In the Jets’ five wins, they’ve only allowed an opponent to score more than 21 points once—in their most recent 38-31 win over the Kansas City Chiefs.
However, in their seven losses, they’ve only held an opponent under 21 points just once. In fact, in their losses, they’ve given up an average of 28 points per game. Yet in their victories, they’ve allowed only 18.4 points per game.
Denver, on the other hand, has scored more than 21 points just three times this season and only once since Week 2.
1.5
It’s often said that games come down to winning the turnover battle. For the Jets, nothing could be more true.
On the defensive side, the Jets have proven that they can take the ball away from opposing teams, their 17 turnovers are the 12th-most in the league. However, over half of those have come in the team’s five victories.
In their five wins, they’ve forced nine turnovers—an average of 1.8 per game. In their seven losses, they’ve only forced eight turnovers—an average of only 1.14 per game.
The Broncos’ 27 turnovers on the season is the second-most in the league, only behind the Cleveland Browns.
1
On the other side of the ball, turnovers have been just as important to the Jets’ success. While the Jets don’t turn the ball over as much as the Broncos, their 17 turnovers on offense put them in the bottom-half of the league.
In their five wins, they average less than just one turnover per game. However, in their seven losses, they have 13 total turnovers, nearly two per game including five multiple turnover games.
The Jets catch another break facing the Broncos as Denver has the third-fewest takeaways in the entire league, only falling short to the Oakland Raiders, Atlanta Falcons and Cincinnati Bengals.
