Little about the Broncos defense this season is what they hoped or expected, and never was that in greater evidence than last Sunday in Atlanta.
Denver played without six starters: defensive linemen Shelby Harris, Mike Purcell and Jurrell Casey, outside linebacker Von Miller and cornerbacks A.J. Bouye and Bryce Callahan. The two cornerbacks should be back in Las Vegas on Sunday; the others will remain sidelined.
With Purcell and Casey guaranteed to miss the rest of the season, the Broncos have lost 27 man-games from starters or players projected to replace starters. Miller is also expected to miss at least the next three weeks and Harris will be out Sunday because of COVID-19.
This means that the Broncos’ season-long total of man-games lost by starters will be no lower than 47. For all of last year, the total of defensive starters’ man-games lost to injury was 46, paced by Callahan missing 16 games and Chubb 12.
What the Broncos have accomplished on defense has been the epitome of what Fangio asks of his entire team in this pandemic-altered season: to improvise and adjust.
At this moment, the defense is leaking points, accounting for 31.0 points per game surrendered to opposing offenses in the last three weeks. But in the first five games, the Broncos held their opponents to an average of 1.8 points below their season-long pace.
Denver will have to keep adapting, but if it can stop the scoreboard bleeding of the last three weeks, its defense should once again settle as a unit in the league’s top half — as long as it doesn’t have any more key players lost to significant injuries.
DEFENSIVE LINE: NOW WHAT?
The patchwork defensive line held up better against the run in Atlanta last week than initially expected, but Las Vegas offers a sterner challenge.
Still, the line of Dre’Mont Jones, DeShawn Williams and DeMarcus Walker can take hope from the fact that the Broncos have managed to maintain their pass rush since losing Purcell. According to Pro Football Focus, the Broncos’ defensive linemen accounted for 7 pressures on Matt Ryan last week, coming after mounting 9 pressures on Justin Herbert a week earlier. That pace of 8 pressures per game exceeds the pace of the first six contests this season (5 pressures per week).
Harris’ expected return in the coming weeks will be a welcome jolt, even though he will likely receive more attention from opposing blocking schemes than ever before. That’s why it will be wise to evaluate Harris not on numbers-centric production, but in the work of the entire defensive line. If he draws double-teams, he will set up Jones, Walker, Williams and McTelvin Agim for pass-rush opportunities.
LINEBACKERS: GETTING A GRASP ON THE TALENT
While the inside-linebacker duo of Alexander Johnson and Josey Jewell has found cohesion, the long-term story is at outside linebacker, where Bradley Chubb and Malik Reed have emerged as one of the NFL’s better edge-rushing duos in the last 5 games, combining for 10.5 sacks in that span — 5.5 for Chubb and 5 for Reed.
Barring injury, Chubb appears poised to have the Broncos pick up his fifth-year option; the team must choose whether to guarantee that option for injury by next spring. The questions then revolve around Miller, who could be back in December, and whether Reed’s production compels the Broncos to attempt to restructure Miller’s deal to keep him around in 2021 and take some sting out of his $22,125,000 cap hit for next year.
The work of Chubb, Reed, Jewell and Johnson is also tied to the issues on the defensive line. If the front three can’t generate the same kind of pressure and ability to occupy blockers as they did before — particularly prior to Purcell’s season-ending injury — then Denver’s second line of defense could find itself forced to operate in heavier traffic while taking on guards at the second level more often.
The linebackers also must get a grasp on what this reshuffled line can do.
“You always have to have chemistry, especially in this defense where you have different stunts up front with them,” Jewell said. “If you’re playing a bunch of run teams, you have to be able to play off them and understand what they can and can’t do, or what they like to do, whether they like to jump gaps or if they like to anchor in there.”
SECONDARY: LET’S SEE WHAT IT IS AT FULL STRENGTH
Through eight games, safety Justin Simmons has three interceptions. Two or three decades ago, that was a good tally for a team leader halfway through the season. In 2020, with interception rates lower, it has him tied for fifth in the NFL and on pace for the club’s first 6-pick season since Champ Bailey in 2006.
But the big stories have been at cornerback: Callahan becoming one of the NFL’s best cornerbacks, Michael Ojemudia showing some promise through some rookie difficulties, and two injuries that have limited Bouye to three starts.
The Broncos have allowed opponents to have a better passer rating with Bouye (97.3) than without him (92.8), although that is deceptive. With Bouye on the field, the Broncos faced teams quarterbacked by Ryan Tannehill, Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert, all of whom are among the NFL’s top 10 in passer rating. Take out the Broncos’ work without Bouye against Cam Newton and Sam Darnold, and the passer rating allowed by Denver while Bouye dealt with injuries rockets to 105.0. So, there is a tangible impact to having their prized trade acquisition on the field.
Bouye has been effective in limited action, but with the rough equivalent of fewer than two and a half games of work, the Broncos are still learning what he can do in their scheme and how the rest of their secondary can play off of their No. 1 cornerback.
“I think Coach Vic [Fangio] has done a great job of just letting us know how teams are starting to attack us, what we’re seeing in certain coverages, and what we can play and where I can help,” Bouye said. “That’s the biggest thing. It’s early—well it’s not really early, but it’s still kind of early. Without preseason games guys are still getting a feel to it. The biggest thing we can do right now is learn from the mistakes we’ve made so far and don’t repeat them.”
The same can be said for the defense as a whole.
