DENVER — The more details that come out about Case Keenum’s contract, the better it gets.
For the Denver Broncos, that is.
In an unfair quarterback market where teams get fleeced by quarterbacks demanding and receiving nearly any contract they want, the Broncos appear to have struck gold with their new “big” quarterback contract with Keenum.
The first detail of the contract that emerged was that it is for two years. Great for the Broncos.
Then, it came out that the deal is for a total of $36 million. Even better.
Finally, it was revealed that the contract includes $25 million in guaranteed dollar bills. The best news of yet.
You see, those numbers on the surface don’t seem like a great deal. Heck, Keenum instantly becomes the second-highest paid player on the team on a per year basis—only making one million less than the great Von Miller—and with Von’s restructure, Keenum has the largest cap hit on the team in 2018.
But for a QB, he’s a steal of a deal.
Coming off what many classified as an MVP-type season, Keenum’s $18 million per year salary is set to make him the 19th-highest paid quarterback in the league in 2018.
Last season, however, Keenum was among the top-third in nearly every statical category and second in the entire league in completion percentage (67.6) and QBR (71.3). Yet, the Broncos will get him on a bottom-half-of-the-league-type contract.
In fact, Keenum is making the same salary as the infamous Blake Bortles in Jacksonville. What’s incredible about that is, many thought Bortles got the going rate.
While Bortles brought his team to a conference championship game last year, as Case also did, he had a worse record in 2017—10-6 compared to Keenum’s 11-3—one fewer touchdown and six more interceptions. On top of that, Bortles’ 21-40 career record is a far cry from Keenum’s 20-18 record.
Yet he and Keenum will clock in at the same annual price tag for the next two seasons.
On top of the incredibly reasonable salary, John Elway was able to get his quarterback on his timeframe. Typically, starting quarterback contracts are long-term deals that tie down the organization to that player for four to five years.
While it’s possible Keenum will be Denver’s long-term answer at the position, there is also still very much a chance the team drafts a young quarterback and plans for him be the future. With Keenum on a two-year deal, that allows Elway and Co. more avenues to find the most important position in all of sports.
If that’s Keenum, great, sign him up to a long-term deal in two years. If not, no sweat, it’s only two years.
Additionally, if Denver decides after just one year that Keenum isn’t their man, they could move on from him and only incur $7 million in dead cap in 2019—a small price to pay in today’s $28 million quarterback market.
What could end up being the biggest steal of Case’s contract, in the eyes of the Broncos, is the guaranteed money.
Less than 24 hours after Keenum and Denver agreed to $25 million guaranteed, Kirk Cousins became the first NFL player to ever receive a massive contract fully guaranteed. At the moment of signing, the Minnesota Vikings were on the hook for $84 million over three years with every penny guaranteed.
Moving forward, every quarterback contract could end up being fully guaranteed, but since Elway agreed with Keenum before the precedent was set, he was able to keep 11 of the $36 million in Case’s contract from being fully guaranteed.
Don’t get this wrong, though, it’s not a bad deal for Case. In fact, speaking in NFL quarterback lingo, this will be his first big payday.
Up to this point in the undrafted signal caller’s career, he’s earned $6.68 million dollars. That figure isn’t bad for a person working through their 20’s—albeit for anyone in their entire lifetime—but it’s chump change for a quarterback entering his seventh year in the National Football League.
However, when Keenum signed this contract on Thursday, he nearly doubled his career earnings with a $6 million signing bonus. When he officially makes the 53-man squad in September, he’ll earn another $4 million in roster bonuses.
By the end of the year, he’ll have nearly tripled his career earnings, raking in a smooth $18 million. Not too shabby of a raise for one year’s worth of work.
For the Broncos, in the end, Keenum’s deal is low risk, high reward—a phrase not often associated with established quarterbacks and their big contracts. While Keenum won his case, Elway won for the Broncos.

0 Comments (8 conversations)
michaelkiken
Wow ?
Zac Stevens
AuthorKiken, huh?! haha.
Ryan Koenigsberg
“Keenum’s $18 million per year salary is set to make him the 19th-highest paid quarterback in the league in 2018.”
That’s a really crazy perspective to put on it.
Zac Stevens
AuthorIt certainly blew my mind!
Spacebar
Lets just hope he doesn’t play like the 19th best QB. But after everything you guys have reported on, what Andre has brought to the film room, and what other research I have done on Keenum, I now really believe we do have a short term (2-5 year) QB answer. If it turns out to be longer and Keenum keeps improving then great.
Zac Stevens
AuthorWhat’s crazy is even if he plays as the 19th-best QB, the team didn’t overpay. But I do think he’ll play better than that.
RyanClaymon
Great article Zac. Sounds like moneyball to me.
Zac Stevens
AuthorThank you, Ryan! One thing we know about Elway is he rarely over pays players. This is another example, but not an easy one to see on the surface.
Dutches
Seemed like it worked out better than getting Kirk ?
Zac Stevens
AuthorIf the two play similar than it certainly did!
Mark in Hawaii
Great points Zac! I’m with you that the value of this deal really became more apparent after the ink dried. I’ve been watching a lot of Keenum highlights from last year and prior years and I am left with more optimism that he will live up the the $25M guaranteed, if not the entire $36M agreement.
No question from me today, but just wanted to share something I came across. I found a clip of Keenum on “Gruden’s QB Camp” 2012. Regardless of what you think of Gruden, it was a great opportunity to glimpse Cases’ confidence and cool demeanor at the very beginning coming out of college. Grudent called it when he said something to Case to the effect that “…being drafted doesn’t matter, and to just be ready for your shot. All it’s going to take is one coach to take you and someone will. You’re going to be ok.”
Zac Stevens
AuthorThat’s awesome insight, Mark! Great find, I’ll have to watch it. I think it will actually be difficult for Case not to live up to the $25M guaranteed considering that’s not actually a lot for a QB.
As always, I really appreciate the positive feedback. Thank you!
Noreik
Hey Spacebar – I’d take 19th best QB over 30th (Siemian)! I would be surprised if Keenum was outside the top 10 (although with Wentz, Watson and Rodgers healthy all season, that won’t be easy) and the number 11 QB went to the AFC Championship game!
PS.
Any UK burrito recommendations ??
Zac Stevens
AuthorI remember the day Chipotle–a Colorado company!–made it’s way to the UK! haha.
Gulol
Glad Case was able to rebound last year after having Jeff Fisher as his coach. Let’s hope last year wasn’t a fluke
Zac Stevens
AuthorI think it’s difficult to have a flukey year. Not impossible, but 15 games is a good sample size. But certainly no guarantees!
jdeppey
With the big 4 QB prospects, who slots in the best in relief this season? Allen is more of a gunslinger, Mayfield runs the option, Darnold seems far from ready, and I haven’t heard much connecting Rosen to Denver.