This week’s Sunday night game will be the Denver Broncos’ 174th home contest, including the playoffs, since the start of the 1995 season, and for only the 24th time in that span, the Orange and Blue are a Mile High City underdog.
Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers opened Sunday in Las Vegas as 1.5-point favorites in the post-Halloween Week 8 clash of 6-0 unbeatens and quickly have been bet up to field-goal favorites.
It’s also only the second time since Peyton Manning’s arrival in 2012 that Denver is a home underdog, according to Pro Football Reference.com data. On Sept. 23, the 2-0 Houston Texans, coached by Gary Kubiak, were 1.5-point favorites at Sports Authority Field against the 1-1 Broncos and emerged with a 31-25 win.
Note that of the 24 times the Broncos have been home ‘dogs over the last 20 years, a full 15 of them took place during the infamous Josh McDaniels/Tim Tebow era of 2009-11 when the Broncos were a combined 21-29.
Again, going backward through the Pro Football Reference database, here are the last 10 times the Broncos were home underdogs and how they fared:
- 2012 Week 3: +1.5 vs. Texans, L 25-31
- 2011 Wild-card round: +7.5 vs. Steelers, W 29-23 (OT)
- 2011 Week 15: +7.5 vs. Patriots, L 23-41
- 2011 Week 11: +6.5 vs. Jets, W 17-13
- 2011 Week 8: +3.5 vs. Lions, L 10-45
- 2011 Week 5: +3.5 vs. Chargers, L 24-29
- 2010 Week 17: +3.5 vs. Chargers, L 28-33
- 2010 Week 16: +2.5 vs. Texans, W 24-23
- 2010 Week 10: +1 vs. Chiefs, W 49-29
- 2010 Week 6: +3.5 vs. Jets, L 20-24
Overall, the Broncos have gone 12-11 straight-up and against the spread as home underdogs – including 10-8 as underdogs as field goal or more – which gives the Orange and Blue some value this week considering they’re 4-2 against the pointspread so far, failing to cover as a 7-point favorite versus the Vikings (W 23-20) and a 3.5 road favorite in Cleveland (W 26-23 in overtime).
The Packers, meanwhile, are 5-1 vs. the line this year, only failing to cover at 10.5-point home favorites over the Chargers in Week 6 (W 27-20).
Overall, including the postseason, the Broncos are 124-49 (.717) at home since ’95, and that winning percentage trails only the Patriots (143-40, .781) and Packers (135-42-1, .761). During the Manning era, Denver is 26-4 at home and its .867 winning percentage ranks behind only the Seahawks (28-3, .903) and Patriots (28-4, .875).
Finally, taking Denver’s already factored-in 3-point homefield edge out of Sunday night’s line, that means the Packers would roughly be 6-point favorites over the Broncos on a neutral field and 9-point favorites at Lambeau Field.
Place your bets.
4 Comments (3 conversations)
Just go to the shotgun & let Peyton do his thing.
Throw interceptions?
If they go back to the 2013 and 2014 systems, the route runners and “O” line know the system better and will do much better using it! Although, the “O” line has to make better adjustments “on the fly” to keep the opposing “D” out of their backfield, IMHO!
The Offensive Line needs to be doing a better job of protecting the QB. The organization made a huge mistake in the off season, letting a lot of the line go to other teams; we were solid last year. Right now, we have a group of guys who haven’t quite hit their stride as a group. They need to get it together. Fortunately for us, GB isn’t the greatest against the pass. If we throw under the zone coverage we’ll be okay. Their LB Corps are weak against the pass. We need to cross the middle of the field and not rely so much on the outside routes. WR Screens aren’t going to be sold against the DB’s of the Packers. A few Half Back passes might even throw them completely off balance, so I wouldn’t put it past Kubiak to do that.