Since 2013, Pat Shurmur as an OC and HC has had at QB: Foles, Mark Sanchez, Sam Bradford, Case Keenum, Eli Manning in his final season, and Daniel Jones in his first season. I went to pro football focus to look a little deeper into this motley crew of misfit toys.

2013: Nick Foles, QB rating of 119.2. By far best of his career.
2014: Split between Foles and Mark Sanchez. Foles had a rating of 81.4, and Sanchez 88.4, which was Mark Sanchez’s best of his career.
2015: Sam Bradford after missing all of 2014 had a QB rating of 86.4, but…
2016: Sam Bradford had a rating of 99.3, the best of his career.
2017: Case Keenum had a rating of 98.3, which was the best of his career. Elway took notice and started his thrift store, bargain bin shopping epoch. Signed Keenum, but didn’t bring Shurmur along.
2018: Arthritic Eli Manning, final year in the NFL. His previous career best rating was 93.6 back in 2015. In his one year with Shurmur, he approached that peak with a rating of 92.4. Manning averaged out over the course of his career at a rating of 84.1.
2019: Daniel Jones rookie, most believe was a 2nd round talent. Rookie rating of 87.7 Best of his very short career. He had a 2:1 TD/Int ratio. (In 2020, he had a 1:1 without Shurmur).

Taking into mind how many of this motley bunch had a career best rating under Shurmur, whatcha think DNVR peeps? Is he truly just an “average” OC, or has his tools been well below average, or both?

Mase! You nailed it. I say trade back in the first to grab a future 1, then you have the backup plan. It’s not about doubting Drew, I’m still conducting the Drew hype train, But you gotta have a back up plan when there is any uncertainty at all. If he isn’t it, I would love to see Aaron Rodgers grab 2 more Rings in Orange and Blue! First time commenter, long time listener, keep doing what your doing!

I did some numbers crunching because I cannot stand for the narrative that we’ve seen enough from Lock to determine he isn’t a franchise QB. I’m not going to go over the old arguments but I like nuance in numbers.

When throwing to players Lock has played with prior to 2020 he completed 61.3% of his passes for 11.57 yards per reception and a td on 4.29% of his throws.

When throwing to players he hadn’t thrown to in a prior season (predominantly rookies but I did add Melvin and co which make these numbers jump way up) 55.2% completion for 11.52 yards per reception and a td on 2.98% of throws.

Extrapolated out to an expected 545 passes in a 16 game season Locks pace of only throwing to players he’d played with prior to 2020 is 3865 yards, 23 touchdowns.

We assume when rookie receivers come into the league they will take time to develop. We know that timing and chemistry is important for qb’s and their receivers.

When we talk about a guy like Minshew he wasn’t relying on Laviska Shenault, Shenault was worked in slowly and never relied on, Jacksonville leaned on their rb and veteran WR’s.

Cincy peppered Higgins with 100 targets but same with AJ Green and Tyler Boyd. Only 1/5th of their targets went to a rookie.

We know what Herbert had to throw to. Less then 10% of his targets went to rookies.

33% of Denver targets went to rookie pass catchers this season.

I understand it’s hard seeing division rivals land guys that have instant success but they had quality offenses when those QB’s were drafted we are building ours with our qb. Give him some time. Throwing multiple top 60 picks away for the 4th or 5th qb on the board seems like an emotional reaction not a logical one. If there is a guy they like at 9 great but let’s not kneecap ourselves. I have major 2013 vibes about this class.

Sometimes, I really don’t understand the logic and reasoning on this pod, specifically from Zac. All year you talk about “continuity, continuity, continuity” and once the draft time rolls around, you’re ready to pull the plug on Lock and start over. Alex Smith is NOT the answer to winning this season and he’s entirely washed up at this point.

How will the Broncos ever find out if a young QB pans out if you continue to quit on him, even after seeing the incredible flashes towards the end of the year?

I also wholeheartedly disagree with the comment that Lock would lose out to Fields or any other rookie. None of those QBs have taken a single snap in the NFL whereas Lock has proven that he can win. The worst case scenario is that Lock is terrible this year, we get a high draft pick next year and do what Mase said: trade for a high caliber QB or draft one and begin again.

Continuity.

So has juwan james retired yet? I’m gonna ask this question a lot because I think he’s more of a mythical figure or an idea, rather than a player on the Bronco roster.

But, anyways….. I don’t really follow other teams news and rumors like I used to. The injection of politics into neutral organizations like the mlb, nba and nfl are slowly killing my enthusiasm for those entities and will likely have that effect into the next generation of my family as erosion often does but, are there any NFL whispers of teams like the patriots or other QB thirsty teams jumping into the top 8 to get ahead of the Broncos? Do you see PANIC as real possibility in Piton’s first draft?

Ok, so I’ve watched the tape on Zach Wilson..

Good prospect. Shows potential. Nice zip, good arm, happy to take a hit whilst delivering a clutch pass, and some lovely improvised scrambles for big yardage. He’s quick. I like the kid, but has raw..

9 is too high to draft him unless you’re desperate, and Lock’s tape more impressive than Wilson’s.

The only QBs worthy of No 9 is Lawrence and Fields. We should trade back. It’s the only logical thing with this class.

Dylan Moses will be there, amazingly, at end of first round and we can get another first for 2022. Get a Corner 2nd round, like Melifonwu, and look at upgrading OT (is James playing?) and corner next year.

This all changes if Sewell or Fields are there at 9.

Also loved you on whatever that Broncos YouTube show I was watching, and was pleasantly surprised to see your cheery face pop-up, Zac.

Peace out and love to all

The Big Tebowski