DENVER — The times they are a-changin’.
As Bob Dylan so graceful sang back in 1965 regarding society, his words still hold true in many respects—including the mind-boggling, quickly-evolving world that is NFL quarterback contracts.
Believe it or not, as crazy as it seems, the going rate for a quarterback—not the best QB in the league, just an NFL-caliber signal caller—is $27 million per year.
If Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers were to hit the open market, their true value could be $40 million per year.
This isn’t your father’s childhood anymore where you can get a gallon of gas for under a dollar and a QB for a “reasonable” price. Oh no, sweetheart, this is 2018 where every new quarterback contract eclipses the GDP of the smallest countries in the world. No, seriously.
The reality—albeit potentially sickening—is Kirk Cousins will likely get at least $30 million per year once he hits the open market on Mar. 14. And get ready Broncos Country, it could very well come from your Denver Broncos.
Yes, Cousins doesn’t have a Super Bowl ring, a championship game appearance or even a single playoff win as a starter, yet he’s set to become the highest-paid player in NFL history in a matter of days.
This shouldn’t catch anyone off-guard, however, as the three highest-paid quarterbacks in the league currently—Jimmy Garoppolo, Matthew Stafford, and Derek Carr—have a combined zero playoff wins as well.
But let’s say John Elway doesn’t want to pony up and pay the outrageous price that is Cousins’ soon-to-be contract. Well, that still doesn’t change the fact that whoever is the Broncos’ starting QB late in the summer of 2018 is going to cost an arm and a leg, just like Captain Kirk.
At least the Broncos better hope so.
Case Keenum, the second-best free agent option, will cost at least $20 million per year. That’s more than the Broncos paid Peyton Freaking Manning just a matter of years ago. That’s certainly not cheap.
Other legitimate starting options in free agency include Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Bradford—both of whom started a combined two out of a possible 18 games for the Minnesota Vikings last year due to injury.
If Denver goes with either of those options, they risk putting themselves in the same situation they’ve been in the last two seasons, where they haven’t been able to get a full season out of their starting quarterback. In that stretch, Denver’s combined 14-18 record is the worst in the Elway-era, and the team has enjoyed the playoffs from the comfort of their own couch both of those seasons.
Oh, by the way, Bridgewater, Bradford or even A.J. McCarron—a quarterback with three career starts—are going to cost a team likely anywhere between $12 and $18 million per year.
These—insert various and as many adjectives as you see fit—quarterback contracts are just the way the NFL, and the world, is.
So, turning to the draft, the “cheap” option, right? In terms of money, it’s certainly cheaper, but in terms of cost to the Broncos, it’s anything but cheap.
Currently sitting at No. 5 overall in April’s draft, the Broncos won’t have an opportunity at the first overall quarterback taken, nor the second and very possibly even the third.
Heck, even if Elway does have a chance at the third-best QB in the draft, he may want to think long and hard before making that move at No. 5.
In 2016, the Broncos made that same move, picking the third quarterback in the draft. Less than two years later they’re already back to the drawing board desperately looking for their next franchise man because the third-best QB in that draft wasn’t good enough. Albeit it was at pick No. 26 instead of No. 5, but the reality is it was still the third-best quarterback in the draft.
If the Broncos do turn to the draft to fill the most important position in all of sports, they’ll be left with one option if they want to give themselves the best chance at finding the right man: Trade up to No. 1 or No. 2 overall.
That’ll be easier said—at least with stomaching the cost—than done.
Sure, moving up four spots to No. 1 or even three spots to No. 2 overall doesn’t seem like too tough of a task, but in today’s NFL, those two spots are more valuable than gold.
According to the NFL Draft Trade Chart, a jump from No. 5 to No. 1 would cost Denver not only this year’s first-round pick but also a future top-10 pick. The jump to No. 2 isn’t much cheaper as “fair value” would be this year’s No. 5 pick and an additional mid-first-round pick.
However, since there’s no way to guarantee where Denver’s first-round pick of next year will fall, the Broncos would likely have to sweeten the deal with the Cleveland Browns (No. 1 overall) or the New York Giants (No. 2) by throwing in even more in order to make a deal happen.
Even then, that would be on the cheaper side of things.
In 2012, the Washington Redskins nearly traded away their entire future to move up from No. 6 overall to No. 2—sound like a familiar jump?—to draft Robert Griffin III. To move up those four spots, they gave the then-St. Louis Rams the No. 6 overall pick in the draft, two additional first-round picks as well as a second-rounder.
More recently, in 2016, the Philadelphia Eagles jumped from No. 8 to No. 2 overall to draft their future quarterback Carson Wentz. That jump—although slightly larger than the Broncos will need to make—cost the Eagles their No. 8 overall pick, an additional first-round pick, a second-rounder, a third-rounder and the teams swapped fourth round picks.
While a top-two pick will cost north of $7 million per year, significantly less in terms of salary cap space than a free agent quarterback, drafting a quarterback may actually cost the Broncos more, in terms of money and assets, if they truly want to get their guy, which would mean moving up in the draft.
If the price to get a legitimate quarterback is just too much, option C, being neither, is also a choice. Free agent quarterbacks that won’t break the bank—but shoot, still could—include Josh McCown, Drew Stanton, Chad Henne, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Derek Anderson, Mark Sanchez, Matt Moore and Scott Tolzien to name the notable ones.
Of course, the Broncos could always stay put at No. 5, hope and pray their quarterback drops to them and hope he develops into their man of the future. Sounds like a lot of hoping, though.
If neither of those sound appealing and you really want to pinch pennies, there’s always the cheapest option of rolling with Trevor Siemian for a third-straight year—costing under $2 million. But even Elway himself nearly scrapped that option off the list after he declared the Broncos’ No. 1 priority this offseason was to find a quarterback. Ouchtown, population No. 13.
In an elitist, non-socialist NFL where the quarterback market lacks a middle class, there are two options for teams who are in the search for their next ball thrower: Expensive and dirt cheap—in NFL terms—and you get what you pay for.
So, Broncos Country, accept it now—the next Broncos quarterback is going to be expensive beyond belief. At least you better hope. Now get over the sticker shock and enjoy the ride.

0 Comments (6 conversations)
Steve Cañon
I get the feeling that the Kubiak connection will bring Keenum to Denver.
Mark in Hawaii
Agree Zac. Everyone needs to accept that for Kirk Cousins’ caliber of proven talent, $30M+ is now the market price. And it’s not just because of the broader sample size of the quality stats he’s proven on the field. Zac have you and Ryan had a chance to watch and listened to him mic’ed up in NFL Films’ “Sound FX?”
If not I recommend everyone go to YouTube and check these video clips out, as well as some of the other interviews where he opens up about what makes him tick. It gives us a glimpse of who he is, the kind of teammate he is, and most importantly the kind of leader we would be investing in. I feel that his ceiling hasn’t been reached yet, and as exciting it would be to gamble on one of these hot draft prospects, I think $30M – $35M is worth the investment on Cousins.
And final question. Do you see the recent Tyrod Taylor trade to the Browns as showing their hand a bit that they are probably out of the FA QB competition and are now more likely to rely on the draft for their future signal caller?
Mahalo!
Noreik
Big difference between Lynch and Wentz and Goff though. And most people seem to agree that there’s not a massive difference between top 3, maybe top 5 at a push?
Would like to see Barkley go at 1 if no Cousins to leave at least 2 QBs left at 5. Maybe move up to 3 or 4 as at least one of Rosen, Darnold or Mayfield will still be there. Where would a trade for #5, #40 and 1st rounder next year get us?
If there’s no-one left that we REALLY want, i.e. a QB that Elway/Joseph/Musgrove don’t like then, as painful as it would be, get Saquon if he’s there or another long term player (Nelson or Tremaine Edmunds or trade down to get more picks) then scout the hell out of next year’s QBs and throw everything at trading up from, hopefully somewhere in the high 20s.
Zac Stevens
AuthorHey! Trading #5, #40 and 1st rounder next year should get you up to No. 1 or 2. I don’t think the Broncos are in a position to wait for a QB until next year, so whether it’s a trade to 1, 2 or 3 I think it’s really important to do whatever needed to get the QB if they don’t land one in the draft.
Preston_Nibaur
I have to agree. We have heard Ryan and Zac make the very valid point that 4 (maybe 5) different guys are the number one QB on NFL boards throughout the league. That’s incredibly rare. And we’re lucky to be in the position to land one of them. If we don’t get a stud in FA, and in my opinion that’s Kirk Cousins only, we have to draft our QB of the future. And if that means trading up to 1 or 2 so be it. It will cost a lot. But at number 5 we can do it without completely jeopardizing our set of draft picks.
Preston_Nibaur
We start taking about all these QBs and their cost. But it’s starting to feel like the market may not be that big for a couple of these guys. I have no idea which teams want McCarron as a starter. The Browns obviously won’t be paying up now. I honestly don’t even know who wants Keenum badly enough to pay him $22 mil. Maybe Arizona or Denver. I obviously know there will be a market. But there’s only so many teams that will want a QB. And if someone like the Jets land Bridgewater or McCarron, will they really be willing to pay up and jump Denver for a QB? Saquon is essentially a lock to go top 4 now. Honestly, I think the Browns need to take him at #1 with Tyrod on the roster.
I know you guys like scenarios. At least you do Zac. I think it’d be fun to hear where you think all the QB needy teams end up with and who Denver would ultimately have at QB next year assuming Kirk chooses Minnesota.
Zac Stevens
AuthorThanks, Preston! We’ll talk about that scenario on the pod. All valid points, too. What’s important to remember is even if Keenum is at a “discounted” $17 million, that’s still 10 percent of the salary cap!
Zac Stevens
AuthorIt’s getting harder and harder to ignore that. I agree, Steve!
Zac Stevens
AuthorHey Mark! I haven’t watched that, but I certainly will, thanks for the recommendation!
I agree with you, I don’t think Cousins’ ceiling has been reached either. I think he’s at worst a top-10 QB and a very, very good leader.
I don’t think the Browns are in the FA QB competition anymore after acquiring Tyrod, but there is still a very strong chance that they draft a QB with picks 1 or 4. My guess is they go Saquon No. 1 and QB No. 4.
Mark in Hawaii
Thanks for the reply over the weekend! I agree that they’ll probably go Saquon #1 and a QB at #4.
It’s Monday and Brees still unsigned. All is now fair game!
Preston_Nibaur
Thanks for the response! And on a Sunday no less. Always working hard for the people!
ziggity187
Paxton’s tall
Spacebar
Yet, we are that much closer to getting Drew Brees!