Will the Broncos’ playoff chances rest on the health of Javonte Williams?

That is the question.

This is the debate.

The Situation

Javonte Williams was taking the league by storm through his first 21 games in the NFL. Not only did the second-round pick have over 1,200 yards from scrimmage as a rookie, but he was one of the few, if not the only, Broncos catching national attention on a weekly basis for his vicious running style. Williams was a mainstay on ‘Good Morning Football’s’ Angry Runs segment.

However, just four games into his second season, the 5-foot-10, 220-pound running back suffered a devastating season-ending injury. What initially appeared to be not a significant injury turned out to be a torn ACL, LCL and PLC.

Since the injury occurred in October, there was hope Williams would be ready to be back by the start of the 2023 season. Sean Payton added to that hope during the offseason, stating he expects Williams to be ready to go by the start of training camp.

If that’s the case, there’s no doubt Javonte will be back at the start of the regular season barring a setback.

Currently, the other running backs on Denver’s roster are Tony Jones Jr., Tyler Badie, Jaleel McLaughlin and Samaje Perine. As it stands, Perine would be the starter in Javonte’s absence.

The Cases

Javonte Williams’ health WILL decide whether or not the Broncos make the Playoffs — Henry

The margins are slim for the 2023 Broncos.

For seven consecutive seasons, the Denver Broncos have missed out on the postseason. They were the furthest they’ve ever been in that stretch last year, winning just five games. There’s reason to believe the Broncos will be better in 2023 than in 2022, but even if they double their win total they won’t be guaranteed a spot in the postseason. Vegas believes Denver has a one-in-three chance of returning to the playoffs.

Simply put, the Broncos need just about everything to go right. And the biggest question mark is what Javonte Williams will bring to the table.

Williams is recovering from a gnarly injury that took out his ACL, LCL and PLC. It’s bad news. But he appears to be on the path back if his limited participation in the offseason program is any indication. If Williams is himself for the entire season—a big ask given the circumstances—the Broncos will make the playoffs.

Williams’ numbers from his first two seasons might not align with what you’d expect from a back that can push a team over the top. His 4.4 yards per carry in 2021 ranked 18th out of 47 qualified running backs. He fell to 4.3 yards per carry in 2022. His 53 career rushing yards per game is nothing special.

But Williams came close to maximizing his opportunities behind a weak offensive line. His 2.3 yards after contact per carry would have ranked fourth out of 42 running backs if he’d been healthy enough to qualify. His 2.3 yards after contact per carry in 2021 ranked 8th out of 47 qualified running backs. His 31 broken tackles were the most in the NFL.

The Broncos invested massive money into their offensive line this offseason, which means Williams should get much better opportunities in 2023. Factor in his ability to create for himself, and he could be in position for a monster season… if he’s fully healthy for Week 1.

Without Williams, the Broncos can’t maximize their new offensive line. No. 2 back Semaje Perine has never held a bell cow role, and the rest of the Broncos’ backfield is inexperienced.

With Williams, the Broncos could have an elite running game. Without him, Russell Wilson will need to carry an even heavier load. Williams’ health will decide if the Broncos return to the playoffs.

Javonte Williams’ health will NOT decide whether or not the Broncos make the Playoffs — Zac

There’s a reason quarterback is the most important position in all of sports.

Last year, 13 of the 14 quarterbacks that made the playoffs were in the top half of the NFL in passer rating. The only quarterback who wasn’t in the top half of the league was a guy by the name of Tom Brady. Twelve of the 14 quarterbacks were ranked in the top half of the league in QBR. The two who weren’t were Brady and Kirk Cousins. Among the two major stats that try to be all-inclusive of quarterback play, there was a very strong correlation of quarterback play and making the playoffs.

The Denver Broncos are not an exception to this semi-rule.

And that’s why—although Javonte Williams is a great player when healthy and will hopefully be a major part of the team—Russell Wilson’s play, not Javonte’s, will be the biggest reason why Denver makes, or misses out on, the playoffs.

Although Sean Payton is certainly building the offense to rely heavily on the ground game, at the end of the day, Wilson’s play will determine how far the Broncos go.

Running back performance had a significantly weaker correlation with making the playoffs than quarterback play. Last year, only half of the playoff teams had a running back in the top half of the league. In fact, two teams, the Buccaneers and the Ravens, didn’t have a running back in the top 39 in total rushing yards, yet still made the playoffs.

Additionally, the Broncos better hope that their playoff chances don’t rest on Williams’ shoulders. Javonte is without a doubt a very talented player who can be a star in the NFL. However, his injury was very serious and I am still skeptical he will be 100 percent ready to go by the start of the season.

But Russell Wilson’s play will be more important than Javonte Williams’ health in terms of the Broncos’ odds of making the playoffs.