DENVER — Patrick Mahomes. Lamar Jackson. The two reigning NFL MVPs.
Mahomes won the award in 2018 — his second year in the league. Jackson brought home the honors in 2019 — his second year in the league.
The 2020 season will be Drew Lock’s second year in the league. But of course, that alone won’t hand the NFL MVP honors to Drew Lock this upcoming season — heck, there’s plenty of other quarterbacks entering their second year in the league too.
But it proves that youth, even for the most difficult position in sports, is no longer a reason why quarterbacks can’t succeed.
Sure, Mahomes and Jackson were both first-round picks, while Lock was a second-round pick. But neither was the No. 1 overall pick. Neither was a top-five pick. In fact, the reigning MVP was the 32nd pick in the draft — only 10 spots higher than Lock.
In their second seasons in the league, Mahomes and Jackson each easily eclipsed 4,000 yards. While Jackson needed his 1,206 rushing yards to do so, his 3,127 passing yards were nothing to sneeze at for a “running QB.”
There’s no reason Lock can’t top the 4,000-yard mark his second year in the league, either. In fact, barring his health, it should be a very attainable goal.
Over a 16-game season, the prestigious 4,000-yard mark is an average of only 250 yards per game. That’s it.
In his five starts as a rookie, sure, Lock only averaged 204 yards per game through the air. But those were his first five starts in the NFL — in an offense that wasn’t built for him and with a conservative play-caller that appeared to hold him back on many occasions.
At Missouri, playing in the SEC, Lock averaged 283 passing yards per game as a sophomore, 305 passing yards per game as a junior and 269 passing yards per game as a senior. All would have easily eclipsed 4,000 yards over 16 games.
Sure, the NFL is a whole new ballgame, but he’s proven he can gunsling it.
In 2019, 11 NFL players threw for 4,000 yards — just over a third of the league.
However, nine quarterbacks, who had eight or more starts, were on pace to throw for over 4,000 yards last year if they had started all 16 games — which would have put the number of quarterbacks topping 4,000 yards nearly at two-thirds of the league. A few of those names include Andy Dalton, Kyle Allen and Gardner Minshew.
Another one of those names, and the most fitting case study to look at for Lock and the Broncos, is Daniel Jones.
As a rookie, under now Broncos’ offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur, Jones threw for 3,010 yards in his 12 starts. Keep in mind, those were his first 12 starts in the NFL. Over the course of 16 games, that would have translated to 4,013 yards. As a rookie.
Sure, Shurmur’s offense will be new to Lock. But it was for Jones too. Lock has the advantage of having five starts and a full NFL season under his belt already; something Jones didn’t have.
Additionally, the No. 5 overall pick in the 2019 draft was throwing to the likes of Darius Slayton, Golden Tate, Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram and Saquon Barkley. Not a bad cast of characters, but none, outside of his running back, started more than 10 games last year. In fact, Cody Latimer — who turned into a special teams’ all-star because of his inability to get on the field on offense in Denver — was called on to start 10 games for the Giants last year.
In 2020, Drew Lock will be surrounded by superior talent as he’ll be playing with a first-round receiver, two second-round receivers, a first-round tight end and two Pro Bowl running backs — one of them being a first-round pick too.
According to Draft Kings Sportsbook, the over/under for Lock’s passing yards for 2020 is set at 3,450.5.
Barring an injury, there’s plenty of evidence to suggest Lock will go over. Well over, that is.
