“The turnovers and takeaways have been a problem for us,” Broncos coach Vic Fangio said Wednesday.
While it isn’t yet time to write the eulogy for the Broncos’ 61st and most unusual season, the Broncos’ struggles to protect the football on offense and pry it loose on defense offer a clear reason why the team has yet to gain any traction in the AFC race.
No team has more giveaways this season. Only the Houston Texans have fewer takeaways.
“We haven’t gotten enough on defense and we’ve given it up too much on offense,” Fangio said.
And since turnover margin is the most reliable predictive statistic, this has foretold doom for the Broncos throughout the season.
Denver is undefeated when it has a positive turnover margin, defeating the Patriots and Chargers with a plus-1 margin. The team is 1-3 with an even or minus-1 margin, losing to the Steelers, Falcons and Titans while defeating the Dolphins. Finally, the Broncos are 1-5 with a margin of minus-2 or worse, with a 37-28 win over the Jets serving as the exception. (Of course, the fact that it was against the Jets says a lot about that winless team.) With that win, Denver improved to 2-26 since 2003 when boasting a turnover margin of minus-3 or worse.
The offense’s giveaway problem starts with quarterback Drew Lock. Of the 38 quarterbacks with at least 150 attempts, his interception rate of one every 22.8 attempts is the league’s worst.
His fumble rate is worse than average — one every 66.6 plays (attempts, times sacked and runs), the 10th-worst in the NFL. Overall, Lock endures a fumble or an interception once every 18.5 plays, the worst rate in the league — and 13.6 plays worse than the league-average rate of one fumble or interception every 32.1 plays.
But turnovers were to be expected from a young quarterback — perhaps not to this degree, but to a certain level.
The defense’s inability to generate takeaways is probably a bigger disappointment.
Injuries to defensive end Jurrell Casey and outside linebacker Von Miller sapped the pass rush. With A.J. Bouye suspended and Bryce Callahan potentially out for the rest of the season if his foot injury can’t heal, the Broncos could effectively end up with their top two cornerbacks missing a combined 15 games.
Still, Fangio’s best defenses have excelled at forcing turnovers. His Vears led the NFL with 36 takeaways in the 2018 season alone — eight more than the Broncos have notched in the last two seasons combined.
With just 28 takeaways in the last two seasons, Denver ranks 31st in the NFL in that span. Only the Los Angeles Chargers are worse.
It isn’t for a lack of effort.
“I think during the week our coaches have stressed it quite a bit — punching the ball out when there’s an opportunity,” linebacker Josey Jewell said. “When somebody has them all wrapped up, for the second guy in always to come in there and punch the ball out. Then we just need to be in our zones or mans a little bit better to be able to have those picks.”
Jewell noted that there was “some luck” involved, and from game to game, that is valid. But the sample size of 28 games dilutes the effect of luck — for better and for worse.
This is an example of needing to make your own luck.
“You need to create your turnovers, though,” Fangio said. “We’ve got to go get them. We’ve got to jar a ball out. We’ve got to pressure the quarterback into some bad throws. We’ve got to have tight coverage to where we get some batted balls like the last one we got against New Orleans when they broke up a pass and Essang [Bassey] got the ball to tip. We need more of that.”
The quest for takeaways likely becomes more difficult without cornerbacks A.J. Bouye (six-game suspension), Bryce Callahan (foot injury) and Bassey (torn anterior cruciate ligament).
Rookie Michael Ojemudia and veteran De’Vante Bausby are the next two men up, with Bassey’s slot role to be filled by some combination involving Duke Dawson, Kevin Toliver and recent waiver claim Will Parks. A five-year veteran and 2016 Broncos draft pick, Parks saw extensive action as a fifth defensive back down the stretch last December and could slide into that role immediately if Fangio sees fit.
Bausby led the short-lived Alliance of American Football in interceptions during its spring 2019 campaign, so there is hope that he can make plays on the ball.
But unlike Lock, Carolina quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks at protecting the football. Among the 38 quarterbacks with at least 150 attempts, he ranks sixth in combined fumble/interception rate, enduring one fumble of pick every 46.9 plays.
His interception rate of one every 45.8 passes is slightly better than the league average (one every 44.3 pass attempts). But he rarely fumbles; he has just one fumble in 422 touches this year.
Bridgewater’s ability to avoid big mistakes is a significant part of why Carolina is tied for ninth in turnover margin (plus-4) and giveaways (13).
Meanwhile, the Broncos are dead last in both categories, with a minus-17 margin and 28 turnovers. The Broncos haven’t had that many giveaways in their first 12 games since 1987, and their turnover margin is the franchise’s worst through 12 games since 1975, according to pro-football-reference.com.
This has been enough to evaporate all margin for error, leaving the Broncos playing only for pride in the final quarter of the season.
A winning season in 2021 must start with a turnover turnaround.
