DENVER — Heads have started to roll with the firing of Denver Broncos offensive coordinator Mike McCoy following the Broncos sixth loss in a row.

McCoy, though, is far from the only person that deserves blame, as he was saddled with lackluster talent offensively, something previous play-caller, Gary Kubiak, also had to deal with. That starts with vice president of football operations and general manager John Elway.

Elway’s hire as an executive first and subsequent promotion to GM has only led to success for the Broncos. That is until now, and it all started after Super Bowl 50 was won, and Peyton Manning retired.

The ascent from one of the worst teams in Broncos history before Elway’s hire to the NFL’s best was steep and rapid, with the legendary former quarterback showing off his skills as a recruiter most of all. No one can take that success away from Elway, but as the Broncos have hit a new low, it’s fair to wonder how they’ve arrived at this juncture.

The recent decline, just like the rise, in large part falls on the GM’s shoulders.

So while much has been made about problems with coaching and players playing soft, it’s not so simple, and it’s reasonable to think that a bigger part of the issue is the actual roster.

“The way that we’ve lost these games has been the most disappointing thing,” Elway said before yet another defeat to the Cincinnati Bengals. “You’re going to lose football games in this league, but the way that it’s gone about and not being competitive is probably what concerns me the most.”

That’s right, the Broncos haven’t been competitive against the NFL’s best, and they’ve now lost six in a row, something they haven’t done since 1990. That’s not just a mentality problem, its an organizational issue from the top down, starting with evaluating players and developing them.

Of course, it’s always hardest to repeat or sustain success in a cap system, and even more so with the retirements of three legends in Manning, Kubiak, and DeMarcus Ware. However, those retirements are only the tip of the iceberg.

Replacing Malik Jackson

Aside from Von Miller, there wasn’t a more valuable player on an expiring contract for the Broncos in their post-Super Bowl offseason than Malik Jackson. While that’s clear now, it wasn’t at the time, as the franchise was occupied trying to figure out their future at quarterback, starting with the attempt to re-sign Brock Osweiler. In the end, neither Osweiler nor Jackson stayed and though Elway did lock down Miller and found a way to sign Derek Wolfe earlier in the season—ensuring at least one stud on the defensive front-three remained. While re-signing Jackson to a $90 million contract wasn’t in the cards for Denver—after already giving Wolfe a long-term contract—his loss has weighed heavily on the Broncos defense, and a suitable replacement still hasn’t been found.

It can be debated whether or not Jackson is elite but, at the very least, he’s a very good player and for the Broncos defense, he was crucial. His ability against the run was out of the ordinary, allowing Denver to often stuff the run with just Jackson and Wolfe as true down-lineman. His ability to create pressure in unison with the other pass rushers on the defensive front was equally valuable, allowing the Broncos defense to wreck game plans. His stats might not have been otherworldly, and he might not have sold many jerseys, but Jackson was an essential member of the defensive core, and the gaping hole he’s left has yet to be filled.

In 2016, while the defense proved to still be elite against the pass, there was a noticeable drop off against the run, and the interior pass rush began to lack as well. Low-cost free agent fill-ins and second-round draft picks haven’t helped enough to fill that void, and now the Broncos defense has looked like a shell of itself against the NFL’s best offenses.

Elway did his best to remedy things this past offseason, as he tried to lure a Jackson substitute that promised to be even better; Denver native Calais Campbell. Again though, Elway failed to make a winning offer, and Campbell joined Malik in Jacksonville where the Jaguars now have the NFL’s best pass rush. Campbell’s shown that he’s a phenomenal talent as he’s upped his pass-rushing stats playing in the Jags defense. Either of those guys would have completely changed the dynamic of the Broncos ‘D’ in 2017, but Elway’s recruiting magic lost out to Florida’s lack of a state tax.

One could certainly argue that Elway misevaluated the true core of that defense, while also misevaluating the actual value of Jackson. Two miscalculations that seem to be costing the team dearly right now. More importantly, Elway’s greatest strength as a GM—his ability to negotiate and lure top free agents—hasn’t worked out the past two offseasons.

Draft drought

Of course, if the Broncos had just drafted a high-level replacement for Jackson, Elway would’ve looked like a genius, but players like that don’t grow on trees. In 2016, Denver drafted Adam Gotsis in an interior defensive line class that was loaded with talent, with Gotsis not exactly the consensus best player on the board. The Aussie has come around this year, though he’s fallen off a bit in the last month and has lost several snaps to Shelby Harris, a low-level free agent signing. To mitigate their interior pass-rushing problems, the Broncos doubled down on the position in the 2017 draft, selecting DeMarcus Walker, a productive interior rusher at Florida State, in the second round. So far, that pick hasn’t changed things at all on the defense, with Walker often being a healthy scratch this season.

The two draft classes since Super Bowl 50 have produced just three starters in Gotsis, Justin Simmons, and Garett Bolles, and all have gone through their fair share of growing pains the past two years.

As you take a deeper look, even more telling are the hauls from previous drafts that may have seemed great at their inception but don’t look nearly as promising now.

The Broncos first two drafts with Elway in 2011 and 2012 were both nice classes, but since then it’s been slim pickens. No one from the 2013 draft class is still on the team, Bradley Roby and Matt Paradis are the only two starters from 2014, and a 2015 draft that looked great at the time isn’t looking too hot now.

The first pick of that 2015 draft was Shane Ray, who’s been a high-level contributor but still hasn’t taken that jump to being the high-level starter that he was expected to be by now. The picks on day two, Ty Sambrailo and Jeff Heuerman haven’t worked out, and after that, you have Max Garcia and Trevor Siemian as standout day three selections; decent picks, but neither’s been consistently above league average.

Sustaining success starts with the draft, and the Broncos in the past five classes have only nabbed five starters in 38 selections, none of whom are franchise-type players. Roby has mostly been good, as has Paradis. Ray, Simmons, and Bolles all show promise, but that’s not enough.

Extend it to the last six drafts and the best pick Elway made is Malik Jackson in the fifth round of 2012, the one guy who got away, and who they’ve already spent two high picks to replace.

The drop off that began after the 2012 draft is in conjunction with general manager Brian Xanders leaving after having been with Elway in his first two drafts. Xanders was with the organization prior to Elway’s arrival and is an unsung architect of the roster that brought the Lombardi trophy back to the Mile High city.

Many will dwell on how the Duke of Denver didn’t get the quarterback selections of Osweiler or Paxton Lynch right, as neither’s proved to be the man behind center for the long-term so far, but the general lack of starters or blue-chip players in the last five drafts at all positions is what stands out the most. To be one of the great organizations in pro-football, you have to get the draft right. That’s a corner you can’t cut, and the Broncos’ front office and scouting department haven’t gotten it done.

The coaching carousel 

Of course, developing those players is part of it, and that falls on the coaching staff. Elway undoubtedly nailed the first two hires he was involved in with John Fox as the program builder and Kubiak as the man to take the team over the top, but his third hire promised to be his trickiest yet.

It’s impossible to give a full analysis of Vance Joseph’s tenure as we’re still in the infancy of it, though there’s been a drop off in play this season from what we saw with Kubiak a year ago, and that’s what’s most troubling. How Elway manages and helps his rookie head coach going forward will be his biggest hurdle yet on this front, and if the new head coach isn’t the right man, the GM will have to do something he doesn’t appear to be the fondest of—admit he was wrong and get the ship back on course.

Elway looking inward and learning from his mistakes in the last 21 months could be a formative moment for the GM and the franchise. Maybe trying to sign a proper Jackson substitute in Campbell the last offseason was the first sign of humility, a bigger step could be adding a consultant similar to Xanders to the scouting department.

The Broncos, as a franchise, can handle one losing season, not more, being stuck in the mud isn’t something this organization will allow and Ol’ No. 7 is at the core of that mentality. Elway needs to be ready to take the 2018 offseason by the horns and avoid some of these same costly mistakes if he wants to get this this team back to glory once again.