ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — If you look at the most basic of data on the Broncos in the red zone so far this season, you might be aghast — at least, if you care about the lads in orange and blue.
In touchdown percentage, the Broncos are tied for 26th; just 42.9 percent of their red-zone series concluded in the end zone. In overall scoring percentage of any kind, the Broncos are 28th, with 73.3 percent of their red-zone penetrations yielding points.
In percentage of possible points scored, the Broncos are even worse; with 57 of 98 possible points from those 14 drives, the Broncos rank 27th with a figure of 58.2 percent. (Three of the other six teams in the bottom seven are Denver’s opponents to date.)
It’s important to do better — and offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur made sure his charges knew that.
“That was the first thing that Coach Shurmur said when we came into the offensive meetings,” tight end Noah Fant said.
But the data is not all it appears to be, for multiple reasons.
First, one of those red-zone forays ended in a kneeldown. The Broncos could have kept going all the way to the goal line in the dying moments of their Week 2 win in Jacksonville, but they opted for mercy on the Jaguars, owners of the league’s longest active losing streak: 18 games and counting.
“We took a knee against Jacksonville in the red zone, but that gets counted against you,” Broncos coach Vic Fangio said.
So, take that off the list. Now, you’re down to 13 possessions. Denver’s scoring percentage rises from 28th to a tie for 22nd; in percentage of possible points scored, Denver goes from 27th to 23rd.
Are those still-substandard rankings a function of the perceived weakness of Teddy Bridgewater in the red zone? The data to date shows otherwise.
His red-zone form last year was considered a concern; his 2020 red-zone rating of 78.8 placed him 30th among 36 quarterbacks with at least 20 red-zone attempts. That put him eight spots behind Lock, whose 90.4 red-zone passer rating last year was 22nd of those 36 quarterbacks.
Thus far in 2021, those fears have been unfounded. His red-zone passer rating of 135.9 ranks third, according to SportRadar.com. He hit that figure by going 14-of-16 passing for 114 yards with 4 touchdowns and no interceptions from the 20-yard line or closer in the last three weeks.
So, that leaves the two red-zone fumbles as the most impactful plays in the Broncos’ red-zone woes.
Albert Okwuegbunam’s fumble in Week 1 probably shouldn’t have been ruled as such, based on replays that appeared to show Giants cornerback Logan Ryan out of bounds as he recovered the football. And while Javonte Williams’ red-zone fumble last Sunday was bothersome, it came with the Broncos in front by three scores. It was frustrating, but inconsequential.
Those fumbles are what separate the Broncos from being a perfect 13-of-13 in scoring on their non-kneeldown red-zone possessions. That would put them in the company of 10 teams atop the league.
Perhaps this is why Fangio isn’t too worried.
“I feel much better about our red-zone offense than I did last year early in the season,” Fangio said. “We’ll see if I’m right or wrong moving forward.”
He has plenty of reasons to feel that way. For starters, the offense is in the red zone more often — on 13 of 28 non-kneeldown possessions so far this season, a rate of 46.4 percent. At the same point last year, just 28.6 percent of the Broncos’ possessions got to the red zone.
Sure, the Broncos were scoring more often; their touchdown rate was higher (50 percent, compared with 42.9 this year), as was their percentage of possible points scored — an even 60 percent, contrasting with this year’s 58.1.
But on closer examination, this year’s Broncos appear far better in the red zone. And if they can cut the fumbles, the data will start catching up with what they see as their reality.
“I think we’re close,” tight end Noah Fant said. “When we go back and watch film, it’s very minor mistakes and minor details that are holding us back from every time we get down there, us coming out with points. Just like last game, there are certain little mistakes that are very fixable that are holding us back from those scores.”
And fixing these errors is necessary as the Broncos move up in class.
0 Comments (1 conversation)
Mark from CO
Andrew: I really enjoy your posts and wish you could do more. I do disagree with this one, however. I think you are conflating your analysis to to support your conclusion. Teddy Bridgewater has done well. But it seems to me to be an error to conflate his passer rating with the team’s record at red zone scoring. Does the QB’s rating affect red zone scoring, absolutely, but they are not the same. One is a personal stat, the other is a team stat. Teddy’s red zone stats are great. The Broncos as a team are not. Yes, compared to last year, the team is having more scoring opportunities, as the team has been better at getting into the red zone. And the more red zone opportunities, the more the scoring. But despite that improvement, it still appears to be landing the Broncos in the bottom third of the league in red-zone scoring. It is what it is. Further, to adjust the stats, particularly for the fumbles is wrong. Fumbles are part of the game – they are a breakdown on offense. No one was adjusting last year’s number for breakdowns, and they shouldn’t now. The fact remains, the Broncos are in the bottom third of red zone scoring, no matter how fancy you dress the stats. Is there hope that the team can improve. Absolutely. But again, I’ve heard it over and over by the Denver media pundits – ‘Hope is no strategy.’ Let see if the team’s play improves and give the ‘atta boys’ when the hope turns to performance.