ENGLEWOOD, Colo. – What if I told you that you could have a quarterback who, in his first year as a starter, had a better passer rating than Cam Newton and Jameis Winston did, more yards than Russell Wilson and Joe Flacco did, more yards per attempt than Andrew Luck and Derek Carr did, more yards per game than Marcus Mariota and Dak Prescott did and more touchdowns than Carson Wentz and Teddy Bridgewater did?
You’d take him, right?
Well, Broncos fans, you got him.
That’s right, when you compare the 2016 stats of Trevor Siemian to every other first-year starter in the last decade, the Broncos’ quarterback ranks in the top third of just about any passing stat you can drum up. Ranking in the top 10 of many and in the top five of stats like yards per game, fourth-quarter comebacks and 300-yard games.
Here’s the cold, hard truth—if those were the stats of Paxton Lynch listed above, Broncos fans would be using them on a daily basis to try and convince the world that their former first-round pick is the next great. As for Siemian, well, most fans probably didn’t know those stats until just now.
Oh, and did I mention that those numbers were accrued with a pretty significant shoulder injury? An awful offensive line? No running game?
The thing about Trevor Siemian is he’s better than you think.
“Uhh, most definitely,” said an adamant C.J. Anderson of that very notion. “You know, I was arguing with some of my boys the other day—we put up Matt Ryan’s rookie year and put up Trevor’s ‘rookie’ year, the stats are similar. You know, I’m not saying he’s going to be Matt Ryan but…”
Maybe it’s because he wears Birkenstocks with socks and rocks baggy sleeves on his jersey. Maybe it’s because he says things like, “Golly, it sure is a pain in the butt.” Maybe it’s because he looks more like the commercial real estate agent he almost became than an NFL quarterback. Maybe it’s because he was a seventh-round pick. Or maybe it’s simply because he plays in the shadow of Peyton Manning and John Elway.
Whatever the reason, people have this misinformed idea that Trevor Siemian is not, can not and will not be good. There are folks on the radio yelling in your ear that he’s already reached his ceiling, twitter users roasting his arm strength at every turn and writers penning “game-manager” all over the young quarterback.
Anderson, another player who was doubted early in his career, thinks it’s most certainly about draft position.
“That’s how I feel,” he told BSN Denver without hesitation. “Us low-round or undrafted guys just have to prove that we belong, compared to the high-round guys proving that they were supposed to be that pick.”
Maybe therein lies the issue, instead of looking for greatness in Trevor Siemian, people are looking for failure. It’s time, though, to start looking for more in 13. After all, he is closer than anyone on the planet to becoming the Denver Broncos franchise quarterback, and sometime during this season, it’s quite possible that the team could make a long-term commitment to the former seventh-round pick.
Broncos fans, it’s okay to get behind Trevor Siemian.
Put aside your love for tall, athletic-looking quarterbacks, your too-high standards for quarterbacking in Denver and any preconceived notions you have about what a QB can and cannot be. Allow yourself to see that Trevor Siemian’s young, young career is actually on a pretty promising path.
During the preseason, Siemian has averaged eight yards per pass attempt, that would have been good enough for top five in the NFL last year. His adjusted completion percentage—which accounts for dropped passes, throw aways, spiked balls, batted passes and passes where the quarterback was hit while throwing—this preseason is an eye-popping 100 percent.
Sure, you can chalk that up to the measly preseason or cite small sample size but what if, what if *gasp* a second-year starter could actually improve? What if it’s absolutely ridiculous to claim that a player has reached their ceiling after one year of starting in any sport? What if that guy who somehow keeps winning the starting job in Denver could actually end up being a damn good quarterback in the National Football League?
Go ahead and give Trevor Siemian the benefit of the doubt, because here’s the thing about Trevor Siemian, he’s only just begun.
0 Comments (11 conversations)
sleonard6
Right on! Unfortunate we do not have any good sports reporters in C Springs or Denver. They have all bad mouthed Trevor Siemian! So glad none of them coach or could. We could do so much better in these two venues.
I agree totally. I saw a good QB last year despite the challenges on the line. If the line holds up the year, I look for Trevor to be among the top-rated QBs this season.
I hate to break this to you, the reason Denver did not have a run game is mostly Siemians fault the safeties crowd the line of scrimmage it is called 8 or 9 in the box. His completion percentage throwing 20 yards or more is one of the lowest in the NFL historically
Brady Quinn on NFL Network on SiriusXM needs to read this…he is one of the biggest haters out there that things Trevor is crap! Perhaps Baby Quinn is just butthurt that in 1 year Trevor had better number, pass yards, TDs, fewer INT, and better rating than Quinn did!
Brady Quinn was drafted by cleavland numb nuts they perineal losers
Not only that, Quinn is sore that the Domers have lost to Northwestern the last 2 times they have played.
The reason people like myself are not big fans of Siemian is he reminds us way too much of Kyle Orton. The boring personality, the dink and dunk style (I call him ‘Captain Checkdown’) that inflates his stats, and the lack of athleticism are what many of us see. There’s no doubt he exceeded expectations last season with all the issues the offense had, but when the team needed him to win during a tight playoff race, he was ineffective. I just don’t think he has that killer instinct needed in crunch time. That being said, He is the obvious choice to start after watching Lynch suck in 2 straight games. I hope he makes a huge leap this season and Denver gets back to the playoffs, but I’m not holding my breath.
The Kyle Orton comparison is a frequent, and inaccurate one. You, like most, make that comparison because he was a Broncos’ player. However, he was in his 5th/6th year with Denver. If you look at Orton’s first year starting, it looks NOTHING like Siemian’s, so without even going beyond that, it’s not an apples to apples comparison. Beyond that, your captain checkdown, which isn’t very original, is also not very accurate.
Siemian ranked 14th with 7.4 average air yards per completion (doesn’t count YAC — source NFL Nextgen stats). Quarterbacks with worse air yards per completion (partial list): Ben, Riverts, Dalton, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Carr, Stafford, Wentz, Manning, Flacco and others…
So, the whole Captain Checkdown and the rest, maybe what you think you are seeing during the emotions of the game, but it’s a very simplistic analysis. It doesn’t take into account scheme, play calling, down and distance, protection and whether there is time for receivers to run deep routes, etc.
Agreed over half is accumulated stats were in garbage time
You people are delusional. college career stat wise he is one of the worst qb ever to start an NFL game
I don’t think you know how football works. College doesn’t accurately translate to the big leagues. Lynch was good in college, now he’s not. Siemian was bad in college(also had injury problems) now he is a good prospect.
Kayvon I do not think you know how football works??? Treveor Siemian”s situational stats are the same now as they always have been in college and 1 year of pros.. Negative Stats Trevor has average roughly one first down in 1st QTR in his career. Trevor’s completions percentage is below 60% when the score is plus or minus 8 points. Trevor yards per attempt is below 6 yards when the score is plus or minus 8 points. Trevor’s INT/TD Ratio is even when the score is even or plus or minus 8 points. Trevor’s QB rating is below average when when the score is plus or minus 8 points. Now for the final set of stats Positive stats Trevor’s int/td and qb rating are considerably above average in the 4th QTR when his team is losing by 2 scores. Trevor’s yards per attempt are over 7.5 yards in the 4th QTR when his team is losing by two scores. Trevor’s completions percentage is almost 70% when his team is losing by two scores.
Okay Kayvon, this is strong evidence Trevor’s play in garbage time is skewing the stat line, teams almost always play more conservative pass defense they play to prevent the quick score. three deep zone they give you Ten Yards. He has never won at any level. Trevor’s College record and stats make him statistically the worst QB to start in the NFL EVER!!! there are many articles and scouting reports that reflect this fact. Sorry for hurting your man crush but as a caring fellow human being it is my responsibility to expose the fraud and how the Broncos are cheating the Fan Base.
Again he was drafted in the 7th round. Romo was undrafted. Also completely false that he is the worst qb in college to be named starter. Secondly that doesn’t actually matter. Don’t you remember Manziel winning a heisman, and RG3, or Jamarcus Russell. So college ball doesn’t translate to nfl ball a lot of times. Also Siemian had a bad o line and one of the worst rushing teams in the nfl, especially after CJ Anderson got injured. Also he played with a bad shoulder. It feels like you don’t watch enough football to be trying to make your opinions as fact.
Siemian had little help around him (bad O-line, lack of running game, receivers who couldn’t get separation, etc.) and played through a couple of high ankle sprains.
Northwestern wouldn’t have beaten Penn State, Wisconsin and Notre Dame without Siemian (and should have beaten Michigan).
Funny you mention a lack of “killer instinct.” What caught my attention about the guy was a 4th quarter comeback he led in a preseason game his rookie season. We had Manning, we had Osweiller, and we had . . . I forget the guy’s name, but it seemed like the three QB positions were locked up. Enter a guy named Trevor with a last name that sounded completely different from how it was spelled. Fast forward a year, and I’ll admit, I was hoping Mark Sanchez would be our guy. For reasons no one else cares about, I really wanted to see him as the Broncos starter, but I knew as everyone else did, that Trevor had won the job.
What I like about this article is that it debunks so many of the common narratives about Trevor–using a kind of sure-fire proof called STATS. Trevor would not have had such a high rating during the preseason if he was “Captain Checkdown.” He wouldn’t have improved his completion percentage or avoided two sacks if he had reached his ceiling and was doomed to play this year just has he did last. And his coach wouldn’t have said before all the media that “Trevor has a great arm. A great arm” I don’t know why more of the media people didn’t pick that part of his comments up and explore it more fully. I’m glad the writers here at BSN Denver are a cut above the average!!
Already as good as Orton was in his 4th and 5th seasons starting (and Orton had a better run game behind him).
Trevor is also an underrated athlete.
As for “crunch time” – Trevor was…
– 8th among QBs on converting on 3rd and long passes
– 8th in 4th quarter passer rating
Trevor was even better in the 4th quarter of close games – finishing 3rd (behind Roethlisberger and Brady) with a passer rating of 140.5.
In addition, from Andrew Mason –
“… Of the 15 first- or second-year quarterbacks with at least 350 attempts in their first season as starters since 2012, Siemian’s 84.6 rating ranks sixth, ahead of Jameis Winston, Derek Carr and Andrew Luck, among others, and behind Dak Prescott, Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson, Marcus Mariota and Teddy Bridgewater.
All-time, Siemian’s rating places him 19th of 109 first- or second-year passers with 350 or more attempts in their first season as a starter. His plus-8 touchdown-to-interception margin is tied for 17th among those 109 quarterbacks.”
http://www.denverbroncos.com/news-and-blogs/article-1/Diving-into-Trevor-Siemians-numbers/822f5516-0831-4e37-9578-bd7015a445fe
Should be more worried about the state of the O-line when it comes to pass protection, CJ staying healthy (if Henderson doesn’t end up being the “guy”) and finding a 3rd weapon in the passing game (still no viable threat at TE or slot).
No Trevor is not an athlete??? He is a QB technician he masters the particular play so in practice he is awesome and if everything is perfect he will do great however very few plays are perfect in the NFL especially against a good defense, Trevor does not have a competitor’s heart he struggles to overcome play by play adversity. Kyle Sloter is the qb with athletic talent he played college as a receiver too. He is the pure competitor he fights to make plays he is most like Tom Brady not Trevor
Thank you for the reference to Broncos Forums. Tned there put in a lot of time and effort into research on Trevor Siemian because he felt Trevor wasn’t getting the credit he deserved. You’re right, if any high draft choice achieved the numbers Trevor did, they would be all over him, predicting great things in the future. Regarding where he was selected, let’s remember this: Tom Brady was selected in the 6th. Tony Romo and Warren Moon were undrafted free agents. And Bart Starr and Johny Unitas were 17th round draft choices, respectively. It can happen. – Larry Blake (Topscribe in the Forums).
Well said pal.
Siemian is going to make a LOT of analysts look stupid this year. Very stupid.
This article is so misleading, first Mariota had no team around him in his first year , Tennessee 2nd worst team pevious year and missed games because of injury. Cam Newton threw for alot more yards as a rookie and total touchdowns passing and running not even close oh made the playoffs, with the previous year’s worst team same for Luck also made the playoffs with the worst team previous year. Remember the broncos they were defending super bowl champs. If you like Trevor that’s fine but he is not that good tier 4 QB. Trevor does own one great accomplishment statistically he is the worst Qb out of college to be named a starter in the NFL WOW!
Aside from DT (who played hurt all season) and Sanders, who exactly did Siemian have as help around him?
Towards the end of the season, it was Justin Forsett.
That same quarterback had the greatest opening on the road game in the history of the NFL.
Thats right, Siemians first game on the road vs Cincy set an all time NFL record for best first road game.
He also beat Notre Dame. With Northwestern.
Hes passed muster two seasons in a row, beating everyone he competes against, under the watchful eye of HOF Elway, Kubiak, and now the new coaching staff of the Broncos.
Hes perfect in the preseason.
You might want to stop betting against Siemian.
As I’ve already told you, I wrote a post with a similar take at Mile High Brasil.
It’s bizarre how people just don’t see things the way they really are, but rather how they wished them to be. Siemian is far, faaaaar away from his ceiling. People need to chill and back him. He’s our guy and will be for the rest of the year.
And I believe he’ll be our guy for a long time.
Siemian sold me on his abilities last year. In the games he played in 2016, he was brilliant in the fourth quarter. Not just for one game, but the entire averaged season, this “game manager” AVERAGED over 100 qbr for his entire season.
Kubes ran a very safe offense. The only cardinal rule is DONT TURN THE BALL OVER. Once the Broncos got into the fourth quarter, they gave Siemian a little more leash, and the kid played at a pro bowl level. In his FIRST STARTING SEASON.
I believe Coach Joe knows this and its why he said the Broncos offense will be more aggressive. He knows Siemian has that fourth quarter ability, and wants it to be utilized for the entire game.
I believe Elway knew EXACTLY how good Siemian could be, and drafted Lynch to be a high end backup to Trev for the next five years. Elway has a history of depth insurance, and having a high end backup is worth a first round pick. Ask Oakland last year.
I dont think the QB competition was about Elway wanting his first round pick to succeed. I think its just the opposite. Its was a chance for Lynch to unexpectedly win the job, and justify the Broncos decision to name Siemian the starter. Lynch had every opportunity to win in a completely fair competition. He didnt, and now will take his job more seriously, or be allowed to grow practicing against the best defense in the NFL for the next year.
I support all of Elways decisions so far. Hes brilliant at these situations.
Nice article. Thank you for actually understanding the situation and expressing it eloquently.
Welcome to the Trevolution.
I don’t think Elway used a first-round draft pick on a potential starter or solid back-up. That doesn’t make sense in today’s game of highly coveted high draft picks. I think the fact is that PL hasn’t grasped the speed or complexity of NFL defenses. He does a great job handing the football off, but when his first option is covered, he isn’t competitent enough to pick up his second and third options. He tucks it and runs. Not the NFL game. I truly believe he won’t be able to make that transition and will soon be jobless (unfortunately). Brock Osweiler is a better option at backup right now.
I agree with your Paxton isnt ready yet vibe, but i do believe that Elway is a lesson in redundancy. Like the navy saying goes, one is none, two is one, meaning that if you dont have a backup, you dont have a viable plan.
Lynch was IMO a possible starter, a more likely backup, in a game where a good back up is mandatory.
We drafted lynch in the first round because we had questions about siemian. Now we have two good kids at bargin basement rates. We have two rookies in Sloter and Kelly that we will also develop. Even after the Lynch draft, Elway grabs TWO more QBs with talent and fantastic salary cap hits.
I believe this is the Seahawks QB strategy. Get a good rookie, play him on his contract for four to five years, then use that 18 million in cap savings paying a veteran QB on salary for the defense or other high end offensive players. SB 48 was a great example of how this is effective.
Elway forgets nothing, and uses it in battle later.
Go broncos. Go Lynch. Go siemian.
Great article every broncos fan needs to read it.
Very Excited to see Trevor Siemian breakout this year – his second year in the NFL with a hopefully much improved OLine and a running game? YES! It may take a few actual games for this new offense to find its rhythm but when it does, look out?
I see a smart quarterback, who has good arm strength, throws a very catchable ball, can fit the ball in a tight window, can move around, and who is accurate on the run. When he has time and isn’t running for his life, he dissects defenses. Ever since he took the field last year he has looked like the better option to me. In fact, you could say almost the reverse of both Lynch and Osweiler in most of the above-listed areas.