ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — If there is one statistical disappointment of the Broncos’ defensive form in the last two years, it rests in the lack of takeaways.
In 2019, Denver forced 17 turnovers, finishing in a tie for 25th-most in the NFL. Just five teams generated fewer takeaways that season. The following season, with a cornerback corps wrecked by injuries, Denver dropped to 29th, forcing just 16 turnovers.
That’s barely one takeaway a game over two seasons. Hardly what anyone wants.
“We’d definitely like to get two or three a game,” Broncos coach Vic Fangio said.
Sunday’s game against the New York Giants represents a potential first step toward that goal — which a Fangio-led defense last reached in 2018 in Chicago.
Denver’s defense is mostly healthy; only outside linebacker Bradley Chubb remains in question after not practicing Wednesday due to an ankle injury. And the Broncos’ re-fortified defense will stare across the line of scrimmage at a struggling left tackle in second-year veteran Andrew Thomas and one of the league’s most mistake-prone quarterbacks in Daniel Jones.
Since Jones broke into the NFL as the Giants’ first-round pick in 2019, he has one turnover every 28.2 touches.
Among the 45 quarterbacks with at least 250 total touches (the combined total of pass attempts, rushing attempts and times sacked) since 2019, Jones’ giveaway rate is fifth-worst, ahead of only Kyle Allen, Dwayne Haskins, Nick Mullens and Jameis Winston.
Most quarterbacks with a ball-loss rate like Jones has had over the last two years lose their jobs. The quarterback immediately ahead of Jones over the last two years is Drew Lock — with one turnover every 31.1 touches — and he will begin the regular season on the second unit.
The giveaway-prone Jones, along with rookies Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson in Weeks 2 and 3, provide Denver’s defense a chance to end a damning narrative of recent years.
That said, Fangio’s defenses have not always possessed a takeaway touch. His Bears led the league in 2018 with 36 takeaways — five more than the second-place Cleveland Browns. But in 2017, the Bears finished tied for 13th with 22 takeaways. In the 2015 and 2016 seasons, the Bears ranked 28th and 32nd in forced turnovers.
The form was better for Fangio’s 2011-14 tenure in San Francisco. In three of those four seasons, the 49ers finished in the NFL’s top six in takeaways, leading the league in 2011.
Takeaways are usually a predictive measure of overall success for Fangio’s defenses. When his defenses finished in the NFL’s top six in takeaways, they always finished in the top 10 in both scoring defense and total defense. This has happened six times: 1995 and 1996 (with Carolina), 2011, 2013 and 2014 (with San Francisco) and 2018 (with Chicago).
In those years, Fangio’s defenses had an average ranking of 6th in total defense and 4th in scoring defense.
Conversely, when Fangio’s units finished outside of the top six in takeaways, they ranked in the top 10 of both scoring and total defense just twice in 15 seasons.
The average rankings in those years? 19th in scoring defense and 19th in total defense.
Takeaways are usually the difference between an elite Fangio defense and an ordinary one.
Better luck when it comes to health and availability is crucial for Denver’s defense to maximize its potential.
But safety Kareem Jackson believes the defense has already shown the takeaway touch — which can bring the entire defense to the league’s upper echelon.
“For me, it’s all about what we’ve been doing all camp,” Jackson said. “I think we have a group of guys that can get it done across the board. It starts with the front, the linebackers and then on our back end so we definitely want to go out and force two turnovers, create more opportunity for our offense, but I think we have a group of guys that can go out and get it done.”
