In October, the Broncos defense seemed battered and maligned.
Injuries accumulated. By the end of October, the Broncos had lost three of their four originally intended starting linebackers to injuries, as well as slot cornerback Bryce Callahan. Von Miller was injured by Week 8, to be traded to the Los Angeles Rams shortly thereafter.
But it was at that time that the unit also began rounding into form.
The trade for inside linebacker Kenny Young helped. So too did the growth of first-round pick Pat Surtain. The communication issues between safeties Justin Simmons and Kareem Jackson — which Simmons himself noted after a series of explosive pass plays yielded by the secondary in losses to Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Las Vegas — dissipated.
The play was crisper, and the result is a defense that has become among the league’s stingiest.
POINTS PER GAME
Start at the top line. Since Week 7, the Broncos defense has accounted for just 15 points allowed per game — a figure that doesn’t include the touchdowns on interception and fumble returns by the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs, respectively, since those were off of offensive giveaways.
Only the Patriots and Chiefs have allowed fewer points per game in that span than the Broncos.
“We’ve been doing a good job of keeping the scores down for the most part,” Broncos coach Vic Fangio said.
Denver’s defense has surrendered more than 17 points just once in the seven games played in that span — against Philadelphia, allowing 23.
And that brings a connection to the vaunted “No-Fly Zone” defense of Wade Phillips from 2015. That defense was the last one fielded by the Broncos to account for fewer than 20 points allowed six times in a seven-game span — until the the last seven games.
PER-POSSESSION EFFICIENCY
On a per-series basis, the defense’s numbers don’t quite stack up to their per-game numbers, although they are solid.
In adjusted points per possession — which takes out variables such as 2-point conversions (counting each touchdown as 7 points) and special-teams outcomes such as missed or blocked field goals, counting them all for 3 points apiece — the Broncos rank eighth in the league over the last eight weeks, allowing 1.871 points per non-kneeldown series.
However, while the Broncos have limited points, they have allowed plenty of yards; the 34.2 yards per series permitted by the Broncos since Week 7 ranks 24th, while the 3:12 average time of possession is 28th.
One thing to note is that in the last eight weeks, no team’s defense has faced fewer possessions per game than the Broncos. Opponents have an average of 8.86 possessions per game in that span against the Broncos; the next-closest team faces an average of 9.29 opponent possessions per game.
Thus, the offense’s continued ability to extend drives and play at a stately pace is crucial to the defense’s efforts to minimize the damage on the scoreboard. It is the very essence of complementary football.
NOW, THE DOWNSIDE …
As the Broncos continue to try to duct-tape a linebacking corps together, they have been gashed on the ground.
Sunday, practice-squad running back Craig Reynolds — who came into Week 14 with no career regular-season rushing attempts to his name — sliced through the core of Denver’s defense for 83 yards on 11 attempts, an average of 7.55 yards per attempt. And it could have been worse, if not for an ankle tackle of Reynolds by Purcell that prevented what would have likely been another explosive run.
In the past eight weeks, the Broncos rank 29th in the league in average allowed per carry, conceding 4.98 yards per rushing attempt. The Broncos also rank 27th in first-down rate on the ground in that span, allowing one first down every 3.55 attempts.
According to data collated and collected by Rbsdm.com, opponents’ success rate of 48.8 percent when rushing the ball since Week 8 is the worst in the league. Denver’s rush-defense EPA (expected points added) is 24th.
“There’s still a lot of improvement that we can make, particularly in defending the run,” said Fangio. “We’ve never had a great stretch there this year, especially after we lost the linebackers (Jewell and Johnson). That’s an area that we need to shore up and get better at.”
The Broncos will try to run the football and control the pace on offense. But it is likely their foes will try to do the same to them in the coming weeks, starting with Cincinnati’s Joe Mixon in Week 15.
Plenty of successful runs both for and against the Broncos should keep the pace of games brisk, and points and overall possessions down. But it also gives the Broncos scant margin for error.
Improvement against the run could be the key to the Broncos winning at least three of their next four games to put them in position for their first playoff trip in five years.
