The rhetoric going into the 2018 NFL Draft from the Denver Broncos has been predictable. Drafting in the top five for only the second time in the John Elway era, they need to find a building block similar to what they found last time they drafted that high, Von Miller, maybe the best defender in the entire NFL.
But that won’t be so easy this time around.
Von’s 2011 draft class was an all-time great crop at the top. From Cam Newton to A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Patrick Peterson, Tyron Smith and J.J. Watt, the class was loaded. Of course, hindsight is twenty-twenty, but at the time, a lot of those prospects were already seen as potentially special players.
In 2018, that’s not necessarily the case.
Especially at the top of this draft, there are question marks surrounding everyone. Beyond those question marks, there’s a lack of talent at premium positions like offensive tackle and receiver. Just look at the top of most draft boards, and you’ll find a pair of safeties and linebackers high, not to mention running back Saquon Barkley or guard Quenton Nelson. Those aren’t premium positions in today’s NFL, by any means.
Sure, the quarterback class shows nice promise in 2018 and is what makes this draft intriguing, but even then, no one is perfect. Whether it be Sam Darnold’s turnovers, Josh Rosen’s injury history, Baker Mayfield’s size and the system he comes from, or Josh Allen’s accuracy, everyone has issues that can’t be ignored.
Even at other premium positions like cornerback, where Denzel Ward is seen as the top prospect, there are similar concerns. Ward isn’t all that tall, he also misses a few too many tackles and doesn’t always track the ball in the air, missing plays he’s in position to make.
Defensive end Bradley Chubb is seen as a high-end prospect at another premium position but compares more to Derek Barnett or Chris Long. Both are very solid starters, but neither is a game-changing, All-Pro type who’s a nightmare to game plan for opposing coordinators. Chubb, a senior, is a really safe pick who’ll likely be productive, but at five, he doesn’t promise to be an earth-shattering pass rusher.
The same could be said about Nelson, who’s also a senior, and is an extremely safe pick, but he’s a guard and has some athletic limitations. Barkley wasn’t the most productive in his final season at Penn State, either, and while his upside is tremendous, doesn’t have the polish of an Ezekiel Elliot.
This will continue down the list, as there are question marks all over at the top of this draft, the first ever draft in which I don’t have an “elite” grade on a player. The Broncos—at five—are in a tough spot, and even trading down won’t solve their problems, as I only have 16 first-round grades in the class. Finding a building block like Miller seems close to impossible, and with all the uncertainty in this draft, even getting a high-end, Pro-Bowl regular won’t be the easiest.
The best strategy, with the odds stacked against you, might be gambling on potential, hoping to groom a prospect with a high ceiling and praying he pans out. The quarterbacks, given the importance of their position, would fit that mold. Ward could, too, if he cleans up the deficiencies mentioned above.
Another prospect that could pan out in a big way is Tremaine Edmunds, the talented 19-year-old linebacker from Virginia Tech. Who knows, maybe even top tackle prospect Connor Williams, whose stock took a significant drop in his injury-riddled final season at Texas, could rise back up and pay off in a big way.
If the Broncos were to trade down, Florida defensive tackle Taven Bryan has outlandish upside, though he, too, comes with significant risk. By trading down the Broncos could find pass rushing alternatives to Chubb as well, whether it be speed rusher Harold Landry—who reminds me a lot of Shane Ray—or the ultimate upside play in UTSA’s Marcus Davenport.
Finding a franchise building block will take guts, it’ll take some risk, and more importantly, it might take patience and development—something the Broncos haven’t always had.
This is the biggest offseason for Elway since he joined the team’s front office in 2011, but the task will be harder than it’s ever been. Restoring the Broncos to greatness through the draft has never been more necessary to open up another championship window, but doing so this year will be an uphill battle.
