ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — Feelings are hazy, difficult to quantify and frequently inaccurate.
That’s why it’s problematic to focus on how the losses absorbed by the Broncos “feel” different than the ones of the previous two years. Sure, those Broncos teams were both 2-1 at this point, and this one is 0-3, but both of those solid starts of the Vance Joseph era quickly proved to be illusions.
“0-3 is 0-3 at the end of the day; no matter how you look at it, it’s still 0-3,” wide receiver Courtland Sutton said. “But we know we’re not an 0-3 team.”
Despite their historic lack of takeaways and sacks through the first three weeks, the Broncos’ overall metrics in terms of total yardage, yards per play, first downs and point differential reflect a typical team in the middle tier rather than one that is winless.
Still, they remain on the precipice.
Sure, it “feels” different. But feelings deceive.
“We know that we have all the talent that we need to get to the spot that we want to get to,” Sutton said, “and all it takes is one win to get the train rolling.”
Still, the longer it takes to find that one win, the better the chances of the train never leaving the station.
FEELING VS. REALITY
Since 1999 — the last time the Broncos started 0-3 before this month — an average of 4.95 teams per year started 0-3. Only the 2009 season saw more 0-3 teams in the last two decades.
But few of those teams were in the positive in two key metrics:
- Yardage differential
- First-down differential
The 2019 Broncos became the seventh team of the 104 0-3 teams in the last 20 years to be on the positive side of those two stats. With 1,026 total yards, they have 84 more than their opponents; with 65 first downs, they have 12 more than they have conceded.
These numbers are typical for a 1-2 or 2-1 team through three weeks. Being winless makes the Broncos one of the outliers.
The previous six teams included one that rallied to win a division, three others that won more games than they lost the rest of the way, one that went 4-12 … and two of the worst teams in recent NFL history, including one that went winless.
What can we learn from those teams?
2018 Houston Texans
Record: 11-5
What applies to the Broncos: Not much. The Texans had their young, dynamic franchise QB already in place (DeShaun Watson). What does apply is the Texans’ early-season penchant for close losses, as defensive back Kareem Jackson — who played for the Texans last season — noted.
“It’s pretty much a similar situation. You think about how our games have gone, I feel like [with] one or two more plays, these games could have gone in a different direction,” said Jackson, who has brought up Houston’s 2019 example to his new teammates this week. “So I just talked to them [about] how to find a way to make those one or two more plays in every phase.”
Defensive lineman Shelby Harris got Jackson’s message.
“Things started falling their way. They started getting turnovers,” Harris said. “The offense was clicking, and I feel like our offense has been doing good. We’ve been getting yards and getting first downs and moving the ball. It’s about finishing on both sides of the ball.”
Houston also revealed the power of a galvanizing moment. The Texans stopped Indianapolis on fourth-and-4 in overtime of their Week 4 game at Lucas Oil Stadium, then kicked a game-winning field goal three plays later.
2009 Tennessee Titans
Record: 8-8
What applies to the Broncos: Plenty, potentially. The Titans lost their first three games by a combined 13 points after losing in the divisional round as the AFC’s No. 1 seed the previous January. (Yes, Jeff Fisher teams didn’t always finish 7-9!) They lost three more in succession by an average of 33.7 points per game, punctuated by a 59-0 debacle at New England.
Then came the bye at 0-6 … and the quarterback change. Veteran Kerry Collins was out. 2006 top-3 pick Vince Young was in. The eventual trajectory for Young was downward, but in that season, he was what the Titans needed. The key parallel is the Titans’ running-back corps, led by Chris Johnson. Tennessee got 2,793 yards from scrimmage from its running backs. Denver is on pace for 2,656 yards from scrimmage between Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman.
If the Broncos have a second-half revival, it might look a lot like the ’09 Titans.
2002 St. Louis Rams
Record: 7-9
What applies to the Broncos: Little. The Rams went 14-2 the previous year and 12-4 the next year. The “Greatest Show on Turf” averaged just 14.8 points per game during an 0-5 start; it averaged 28.2 points per game in working back to .500 before a three-game losing streak dashed their hopes. Considering that the Rams went 42-13 in 55 games before the 0-5 start and 23-11 in 34 games after it, this five-week stretch was just a hiccup in what was otherwise their best sustained stretch since the 1970s.
2018 Oakland Raiders
Record: 4-12
What applies to the Broncos: Not much, unless the Broncos begin trading players in the next few weeks. If that happens, the Broncos would hope their young players respond with the same enthusiasm and energy that Oakland’s did in posting a respectable 3-4 finish after a 1-8 start. That said, the Raiders defense was dreadful, only holding an opponent below 20 points once all season. Of course, that was the Broncos in Week 16.
And now, the worst-case scenarios, the ones that remind us that the Broncos walk on a tightrope:
2007 Miami Dolphins
Record: 1-15
What applies to the Broncos: The value of a veteran quarterback. Miami was competitive early with veteran Trent Green at quarterback; two of its first three losses were by a field goal. Then he suffered a concussion while trying to block Texans defensive tackle Travis Johnson, forcing Cleo Lemon into action. Neither Lemon nor third-teamer John Beck provided any consistent play. New head coach Cam Cameron was in over his head and unable to stop the bleeding as close losses gradually transformed into bludgeonings.
2017 Cleveland Browns
Record: 0-16
What applies to the Broncos: Little. The Browns were sloppy, averaging 2.6 turnovers per game, and quarterback DeShone Kizer was overmatched. An injury to their best player turned bad into disaster; with Joe Thomas.
ESCAPING THE “WORLD OF SUCK”
For the Broncos, positive feelings are justifiable. Their young offensive skill-position players are promising; first- or second-year players make up four of the team’s top five in yards from scrimmage. De’Vante Bausby was an upgrade at cornerback when he entered the lineup in Green Bay. Dre’Mont Jones showed flashes in the pass rush Sunday.
But they can’t give into the temptation to dance on the edge of the canyon. The 2007 Dolphins and 2017 Browns did, and an injury pushed them in.
“It’s a different feeling right now, even though we’re 0-3,” cornerback Chris Harris Jr. said. “We don’t have that end-of-the-world feeling right now.”
Yet they do have the feeling that they want to escape that world — the oft-cited “world of suck” of which Emmanuel Sanders spoke after the loss in Green Bay.
“I don’t regret [saying it] because that’s where we are. We are living in a world of suck,” Sanders said. “I’m not going to sit up here and be fake with you guys or lie to you guys and say, ‘Oh yeah, we are 0-3, and I’m having the time of my life.’
“Who does that? I’m a competitor, I love to compete, but at the same time, you guys [the media] know me, I’m very positive. At the same time, we are living in a world of suck.”
Success is unlikely to result in a playoff appearance; the Broncos are in 2.8-percent territory there. But what about 9-7 by going 9-4 the rest of the way? Or 7-9 with a winning record in the second half of the season, perhaps with more young players leading the charge?
Either of those outcomes would give the Broncos their best season-ending feeling since Super Bowl 50.
It’s not much. But at least it would be a different world than the “world of suck.” And the Broncos’ good feelings would actually be backed up by results and legitimate promise for 2020.
