First in a series
Note: The quarterbacks in this series lack the sizzle, style and resume of potential options such as Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott and a trade up in the 2021 NFL Draft.
But if the Broncos cannot import a top-10 starting quarterback who represents a clear upgrade over Drew Lock, a veteran hedge to provide competition is the most likely option to bolster the QB room.
First up is Nick Foles. He isn’t a free agent. But if the Bears want to mash the reset button at QB, he might fit the bill of a bridge veteran.
- AGE AT START OF 2021 SEASON: 32
- EXPERIENCE: 10th year
THE HIGHS: The apex was Super Bowl LII in Minneapolis. He wasn’t simply the pilot of the Eagles’ offense in their 41-33 win over the New England Patriots; he was a reason why they won, earning game MVP honors by throwing for 373 yards and three touchdowns. This capped a three-game postseason run in place of the injured Carson Wentz that saw him post a passer rating of 115.7, a figure exceeded by just eight Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks. Amazingly, though, that rating was not as high as the one he posted in 2013, when first-year NFL head coach Chip Kelly’s scheme and Foles caught the NFL off-guard; he posted a 119.2 rating that remains the fourth-best single-season mark in NFL history (minimum 100 attempts).
THE LOWS: The 2014 season saw the Eagles start 6-2, but Foles’ efficiency was down from the previous year, when he guided them on a stunning run to the NFC East title. His passer rating plummeted to 81.4, placing, which ranked 26th among 33 QBs with at least 100 attempts through nine weeks. It was also in Week 9 that Foles suffered a collarbone injury that turned out to be season-ending. This began the whistle-stop phase of Foles’ career; he’s played on five teams in six seasons since then. Only once in that span did he come back for a second year with that club — in Philadelphia in 2018. The Eagles had the chance to trade Foles in that offseason, but with Wentz still recovering from a torn ACL, that was touch-and-go; indeed, Foles started Weeks 1 and 2 of the Eagles’ title-defense season before giving way to Wentz.
FOUR-YEAR FORM (2017-20)
(Rankings are among 62 quarterbacks with at least 250 total plays — attempts, rushes and times sacked — over the past four years.)
- PASSER RATING: 85.3, 37th
- YARDS PER ATTEMPT: 6.26, 54th
- COMPLETION PERCENTAGE: 65.79, 15th
- TOUCHDOWN RATE: One every 45.31 attempts, 49th
- SACK RATE: One every 19.13 pass plays, 14th
- INTERCEPTION RATE: One every 45.31 attempts, 28th
- FUMBLE RATE: One every 57.5 plays, 48th
- BALL LOSS RATE (INTERCEPTIONS + FUMBLES): One every 26.83 plays, 42nd
WHAT STANDS OUT: The curious pattern of Foles’ play. In the last four years, he’s delivered in the clutch. His afore-mentioned work in the 2017 postseason gave the Eagles their only world title since the Eisenhower administration (1960). But in the last four years, there is a gap between Foles’ form in the last quarter of the regular season and the postseason and what he displays in the regular season’s first 12 games. In late-season and playoff starts, he’s been an above-average quarterback the last four years, posting a 96.2 passer rating and twice as many touchdown passes (20) as interceptions (10), with one touchdown every 18.9 attempts.
When he starts in the first 12 games of the regular season since 2017, his rating is 80.7 and he has just 11 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. His sack rate and average per attempt are also down considerably.
To distill it down to passer rating, Foles’ late-season-and-playoff rating would place him 16th among the 62 QBs with at least 250 total plays since 2017. His rating in games 1-12 would leave him 52nd, just ahead of Jeff Driskel (79.4), Brock Osweiler (79.4) and Drew Lock (79.1).
Late-season Foles is someone with whom you can win; his form has helped his teams to a 9-2 record since 2017 in Week 14 or later, including the playoffs. The Foles before then … not so much. Since 2017, in Weeks 1-13 — the first 12 games of a season — teams led by him are 3-10, including a 2-5 mark for the Bears when he started for them last year.
WHY HE COULD BE A FIT: During his first Eagles stint (2012-14), he worked under the guidance of current Broncos offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur, so his electric 2013 season came with the veteran coach whispering in his ear. In 2014, Foles struggled to come close to replicating the gaudy 27-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio he posted a season earlier. Shurmur came to the defense of his young quarterback, telling media, “We’re a different team. We have different players in there. We’re playing different opponents, who are playing us differently.” Indeed, the league had caught up to Kelly’s scheme and adjusted accordingly.
WHY HE WOULDN’T BE: His chances of being a Bear might have doubled this week. With Mitchell Trubisky set to hit free agency and the Bears striking out on their bid to acquire Wentz via trade, Foles could be the last man standing — and a bridge to a younger quarterback. Chicago would have to trade up at least 11 picks to put itself in position to get one of the first four quarterbacks off the board in the draft — and even a pursuit of Mac Jones might require the Bears to advance forward from their No. 19 draft slot. But if the Bears can find a QB of the future, Foles is a perfect bridge. The price is right for Chicago; Foles’ cap number is a reasonable $6,666,666 in the second year of a three-year contract that could be worth up to $24 million.
HOW THE BRONCOS MIGHT GET HIM: Via trade. The Bears take a salary-cap hit by releasing him with two years left on his deal; if they cut him before June 1, his cap figure increases by $3,666,668, according to OvertheCap.com. A trade of Foles would bring a modest-but-palpable savings of $1,333,332.
