How much does the Denver Broncos’ Sunday-night win over the New England Patriots mean?
The short answer is plenty — at least in the eyes of the Las Vegas bookmakers and NFL analytics folks — as the Broncos’ numbers have taken decent leaps across the board this week.
At the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, the 9-2 Broncos’ odds of winning the AFC moved from 9-2 to 3-1 while the 10-1 Patriots dipped from 5-8 to even money with their two-game lead atop the conference now cut in half. The 9-2 Cincinnati Bengals, meanwhile, also saw their AFC-title odds increase slightly, moving from 9-2 to 4-1.
Five 6-5 teams – Pittsburgh Steelers (6-1), Indianapolis Colts (12-1), Kansas City Chiefs (12-1), Houston Texans (25-1) and New York Jets (40-1) – round out the top half of the AFC odds, with the red-hot Chiefs (20-1 to 14-1) and Texans (40-1 to 25-1) making the week’s largest leaps.
As for the Super Bowl 50 odds, the Westgate still has the Patriots as the solid favorites at 5-2 and are followed by the undefeated Carolina Panthers (9-2), 9-2 Arizona Cardinals (5-1) and the Broncos, who are up to 7-1 after being posted as 10-1 favorites a week earlier.
Rounding out the top 10 are the 7-4 Green Bay Packers (10-1 despite four losses in their last five games), Bengals (10-1), 6-5 Seattle Seahawks (14-1), Steelers (14-1), 8-3 Minnesota Vikings (14-1) and Colts (25-1) completing the top 10.
As for the analytics view, the Orange & Blue’s odds of earning a first-round postseason bye jumped eight percent, moving from 50 to 58 percent after the 30-24 overtime win, according to FiveThirtyEight.com. The Broncos’ Elo rating improved 23 points – the biggest jump among the site’s top eight – and they now have a 10 percent chance to capture the Lombardi Trophy, which is up 2 percent from a week ago.
The Patriots’ Super Bowl chances dipped from 33 to 28 percent, but they still top the board. The Panthers (20 percent), Cards (13), Broncos, Bengals (9), Packers (5), Seahawks (3), Vikings (3) and Chiefs (3) are the other teams with at least a 3 percent shot, according to Nate Silver’s number-crunching crew.
