Whether we’re talking defending the New England Patriots’ multiple weapons or the Denver Broncos making the most of their opportunities once they get there, red-zone efficiency is sure to play a key role in Sunday’s AFC Championship Game.
We start off comparing the two teams’ regular-season red-zone offenses, and it’s a mistmatch.
The Patriots ranked as the league’s fourth-most efficient red-zone team during the regular season, scoring touchdowns on 65.6 percent of their forays inside the opposition’s 20-yard-line. Only the league’s highest-scoring team, the Carolina Panthers, produced more red-zone TDs (44) than New England’s 41.
The Broncos, meanwhile, ranked as the league’s fifth-worst offense when it came to converting red-zone drives into touchdowns, reaching the end zone only 47.7 percent of the time. And only the Cowboys (20), Bills (19), Rams (19), Browns (18) and 49ers (17) – .500 or worse teams, all – finished with fewer with touchdowns.
Defensively, both the Broncos and Patriots finished in the middle of the red-zone pack despite owning top-10 scoring defenses overall.
Denver only allowed the opposition to reach the red zone on a regular-season league-low 37 drives, but foes were able to convert 22 of those possessions into TDs (59.5 percent), which ranked the Orange & Blue 20th in the league. Broncos’ opponents rushed for eight TDs in the red zone but only scored 14 via the air – tied for eighth fewest in the league – and the Denver D will need to be that stout and then some on Sunday.
The Patriots, meanwhile, ranked slightly ahead at 16th with the opposition finding the end zone on 24 of 42 regular-season drives (57.1 percent), tallying 18 passing TDs and six rushing scores.
As might be expected, the Pats did most of their red-zone damage via the air as Tom Brady paced the league in completions (55), yards (412) and TD passes (28) inside the opposition’s 20 while throwing only three interceptions.
No fewer than five New England pass-catchers finished with at least three red-zone scoring grabs, led – of course – by tight end Rob Gronkowski (19 targets-11 receptions-57-seven TDs) and slot receiver Julian Edelman (17-11-82-5). Gronk’s seven red-zone TD catches tied for ninth overall and fourth among tight ends.
Meanwhile, tight end Scott Chandler had four red-zone TD receptions while wideout Danny Amendola and running back James White had three apiece.
Brady also ranks as the Pats’ leading red-zone rushing threat (three TDs) as more than half of the team’s 13 inside-the-20 ground TDs were scored by the since-injured LeGarrette Blount (five) and Dion Lewis (two).
The Broncos, meanwhile, first need to focus on getting to the red zone as they only got there 44 times during the regular season and twice in this past Sunday’s divisional-round win over the Steelers despite running plays in Pittsburgh territory on nine of their 14 possessions.
During the regular season, the Broncos’ red-zone drives resulted in more combined field goals and turnovers (22) than TDs (21), and that won’t cut it if they’re trying to keep pace with the Patriots on Sunday.
Peyton Manning completed 20-of-34 red-zone passing attempts for 112 yards, six TDs and a pair of picks.
His most effective red-zone weapon remains wide receiver Demaryius Thomas who caught 11 of his team-most 20 targets for 87 yards and three TDs. Tight end Owen Daniels (11-5-27) and wideout Emmanuel Sanders (8-4-48) also had three red-zone TD grabs apiece.
On the ground, Ronnie Hillman led the way with 63 yards and five TDs on 28 red-zone carries, but backfield mate C.J. Anderson was a little more efficient, gaining 53 yards and scoring a pair of TDs on 21 carries.
