From the opening 19-13 win over the Ravens to this past Sunday’s 20-18 AFC Championship Game victory over the Patriots, the 2015 Denver Broncos have made a living winning close games.
Five of the Orange & Blue’s first six contests were decided by a touchdown or less, and each of their last six, including both playoff games, have followed the same back-and-forth, gut-it-out, white-knuckle pattern.
And whether it’s been turning back two-point conversions by Bears and Patriots, winning on an improbable late-game scoop-and-score fumble recovery against the Chiefs or coming out on top each of their three overtime battles, the Broncos have displayed more tight-game toughness than any team in the league, winning 11 of those 14 matchups decided by a touchdown or less.
That’s nothing less than a single-season high-water mark during the Super Bowl Era (1966-present). The 1978 Houston Oilers and 2003 Carolina Panthers each posted 10 wins in contests with a point differential of seven points or fewer, but the 2015 Orange & Blue became the first to make it to 11 by prevailing in a the two-point thriller against the Pats.
If Super Bowl 50 follows suit, it’ll be an NFL single-season record 15th game decided by a touchdown or less for the Broncos as Denver currently share the standard with the ’03 Panthers (10-4), the ’96 Jaguars (9-5) and the ’95 Colts (7-7).
And of the 95 Super-Bowl Era teams who have played at least 10 such close contests in a season, only six – including the current Broncos – have posted a winning percentage of .750 or better. Three of those previous five – the ’81 49ers (9-2), ’86 Giants (9-2) and ’06 Colts (9-3), led by a familiar QB – wound up winning the Super Bowl.
This season, Gary Kubiak‘s crew has played more tight games than any team – the Ravens (5-7) will wind up the closest with 12 such contests – and only the Colts (7-4) and the Broncos’ Super Bowl 50 opponent, the Panthers (7-1), have posted as many as seven wins in contests decided by less than a touchdown.
Cam Newton and Co., though, are more used to winning by big margins, as their league-most nine victories by double-digit margins, attests. That includes four wins by 20-or-more points; the Broncos, meanwhile, played in no such games, period, this season.
In all, it’s been nothing short of a dramatic turnaround in 2015 for Denver, who played in a league-low 15 contests decided by a touchdown or less during the first three seasons of the Peyton Manning Era (2012-14) – only one more than this season alone.
The Broncos were a combined 8-7 in those games, including a 3-3 mark in their last Super Bowl season of 2013.
This time around, though, the Broncos are light years more equipped – particularly when it comes to mindset – to deal with, and prevail in, a tight fourth-quarter game.
And if Denver’s first 18 contests this season and recent Super Bowl history – six of the last eight games have been decided by six points or fewer – are any indication, that’s what we’re in for come the evening of Feb. 7 in Levi’s Stadium.
