ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — What a difference a month can make.
During the team’s Week 10 bye, the 3-6 Denver Broncos were down and out with a brutal stretch of games awaiting them after their week off.
Fast forward to Week 14 and the situation is nearly unrecognizable as the Broncos ride a three-game win streak, have pulled to .500 and face three-straight teams with a losing record.
Instead of the focus on April’s draft, it’s all about the Broncos making the playoffs this year.
But before they look at January football, they’ll need to take care of business against the not-so-daunting 2-10 San Francisco 49ers.
Can the Broncos stay focused on their quest at a miraculous comeback? Or will they fall flat in the Bay?
The BSN Broncos Crew breaks it down.
HOW CAN THE BRONCOS MITIGATE THE LOSS OF CHRIS HARRIS JR.?
Ryan
With their all-world pass rush — Nothing makes life on a secondary easier than a quarterback with no time to throw. The Broncos are going to have to trust their pass rush more than ever before in this one, and it looks like they plan to.
Earlier this week, Joe Woods was asked if he is going to play less man coverage in lieu of the loss of Harris, surprisingly, he said, “Nope. “We’re going to tighten it up. We’re going to stay on the body.”
To me, that says, Woods wants to use his rag-tag group of corners to press up and buy time for the pass rush, risking the deep ball if they can’t get there rather than allowing the easy stuff for Mullens underneath in fear of the corner group not being able to stay with the receivers on deep stuff.
To me, Woods is taking the right approach here, now it’s up to Von Miller, Bradley Chubb, and co. to make him look good.
Zac
Picking the ball off — The “No Fly Zone” quickly vanished with the departure of Aqib Talib in the offseason. Even with Harris Jr. on the field through the first 11 games of the season, the Broncos have allowed the 10th-most passing yards in the league.
Without their star corner for the next few weeks, there’s no reason to believe this will improve even with the recent signing of Jamar Taylor.
However, if Denver continues to make plays on the ball in the secondary as they have done recently, they’ll be able to get by allowing yards through the air against the lower level of competition that’s coming up.
Denver’s 13 interceptions are the fifth-most in the league. Their Pro Bowl cornerback accounts for three of them.
Andre
The safeties grow up in a hurry — Expect to see a lot fo Justin Simmons in coverage in the slot, especially in base personnel, which is what happened last week once Harris went down. Implementing more base personnel will be key, as the Broncos can’t afford to put more than four DBs on the field with their lack of depth at cornerback. As much of a liability as the linebackers have been in coverage this year, they’re more trustworthy than most of the CBs Denver can throw out there.
Expect to see Simmons in the slot a good amount in sub too, with Will Parks playing in his place or as the strong safety, forcing Darian Stewart to play deep. It’ll take a team effort to make up for the lack of talent at corner, next man up won’t be the only solution, this will stress the entire defensive back-seven.
Joe Woods and Vance Joseph have done a nice job of handling personnel that’s below average in coverage, now they’ll be asked to do even more against an offensive scheme that can get guys open with misdirection and nifty play calls.
KEY MATCHUP
Ryan
Courtland Sutton vs. Richard Sherman — Welcome to the big leagues, Court.
In a span of five weeks, the Broncos’ second-round draft pick has gone from facing nickel corners to facing No. 1 corners, and his first test comes against a great one.
The Broncos offense can’t rely entirely on Phillip Lindsay the whole game, meaning Sutton—the team’s second-best weapon—is going to need to make some plays.
Zac
George Kittle vs. Broncos’ linebackers and safeties — George who? While Kittle has yet to become a household name, he’s quickly become one of the best tight ends in the NFL.
That spells doom for the Broncos’ defense.
No matter the year, Denver’s defense has had fits covering elite tight ends, average tight ends and no-name tight ends — Seattle’s Will Dissly, cough cough.
Not only is Kittle San Francisco’s leading receiver by miles and miles, Mullens has developed a nice connection with him — connecting with him over six times per game for over 75 yards since Week 9.
Denver doesn’t need to stop Kittle, they just can’t let him take over the game.
Andre
Broncos receivers vs. Niners DBs — Amazingly, the Niners defense has actually been decent this season ranking in the top 15 per yards allowed against the run and pass.
Without Emmanuel Sanders, a group of receivers that’s already struggled to create separation on a consistent basis will be fighting an uphill battle. The 49ers duo of long corners will present a tough task for Courtland Sutton on contested balls as both Richard Sherman and Ahkello Witherspoon are 6-foot-3, Sutton’s same exact height.
Quicker wideouts like DaeSean Hamilton and Tim Patrick will have to win at the line for Denver to find big plays in the passing game.
If the Broncos can get an early lead, Von Miller could have a big day going against rookie right tackle Mike McGlinchey in a matchup that heavily favors the Broncos, but first, the offense will have to find ways to put points on the board.
THE BRONCOS WIN IF
Ryan
They prevent the big play — Last week, the Broncos gave up one play of 30 or more yards, it was the only touchdown they gave up in the game and, for all intents and purposes, the only big play they gave up to an ailing offense.
This week, they face another ailing offense that will have to rely on big plays and broken coverages to generate points.
Denver can afford to give up one or two like they did last week, but as long as they don’t let it become a trend, they’ll win easily.
Zac
They create a single turnover — Look, the 49ers are a really bad football team, so it doesn’t take too much to beat them.
In the 49ers two wins, they haven’t had a single turnover. In all of their losses but two, they’ve turned the ball over at least twice, including three four-plus turnover games. In their two losses in which they didn’t turn the ball over, they were competitive.
Fortunately for Denver, Joe Woods’ defense is averaging three turnovers per game since the bye week. Additionally, the 49ers have the second-most turnovers in the league. Against their worst opponent yet, Denver just needs one to get the job done once again.
Andre
They feed Phil — With the injuries mounting on the offensive line, at tight end, and now receiver, Denver’s offense will need a big spark from rookie sensation Phillip Lindsay. Not just in the run game but in the passing game as well, giving Case Keenum a safe outlet on short throws.
The Niners defense, despite playing from behind in most games, has allowed 108 rushing yards per game—good for 15th best in the NFL. Lindsay will need at least 20 touches to keep Keenum clean in the pocket and the San Francisco defense on thier heels.
That’s the recipe for victory this week.
RESULT (DENVER -4)
Ryan
Broncos 24, 49ers 17 — The injury to Chirs Harris proves crucial on a couple of 49ers drive, but in the end, the 49ers just don’t have the firepower to put up a winning number. Meanwhile, the Broncos’ offense get’s the secondary production needed to get the job done.
It won’t be pretty, but it’ll be a win.
Zac
Broncos 27, 49ers 17 — The Broncos shouldn’t have any trouble putting up points on the 49ers. Only two teams, the dreadful Raiders, and Cardinals, haven’t dropped 24 points on Shanahan’s defense.
On the other side of things, there’s no reason to believe Denver’s defense starts giving up points this week, even without Harris Jr.
The Broncos will have a winning record for the first time since Week 3.
Andre
Broncos 24, 49ers 9 — This is the biggest win I’ve predicted to date, and I expect things to be tight in the first half. That said, the Niners just don’t present many concerns of their own offensively with third-stringer Nic Mullens behind center.
As long as the Broncos run defense keeps playing stout and Keenum avoids turnovers, even if it’s ugly Denver should run away with the ‘W’. Anything less than a double-digit victory would be disappointing.
