The first domino to fall in the NFL offseason is the Denver Broncos trading for veteran-outside cornerback, A.J. Bouye, from the Jacksonville Jaguars, for a 2020 fourth-round pick.

Bouye, paired with Bryce Callahan, will form a new duo at cornerback, a group that now will almost certainly not feature Chris Harris Jr., the final member of the No Fly Zone to leave.

As we’ll be doing all offseason with every new addition to the roster, we went back and watched Bouye in over seven games from the past four seasons, here’s what we found.

Gambling on a bounce-back

A.J. Bouye was a high-priced free agent just a few years ago and lived up to that billing the very next season, helping complete the Jaguars defense the fell just a few plays short of making it to the Super Bowl. The following season, in 2018, while Bouye’s elite on-ball production dipped a bit as the Jags defense regressed, his level of play remained very high.

Last season is where things truly went south, as Bouye struggled to consistently be a lockdown, man cornerback, losing just a bit of his edge and aggression attacking the ball. 

Thus, the question that will really define this trade is if 2019 was an outlier or the beginning of a downward trend?

The Jaguars—in need of a rebuild—are betting Bouye’s play won’t be worth the remaining $27 million he’s due over the next two seasons, while the Broncos, for a few different reasons that we’ll get into, are willing to take that bet.

As we break down the seven-year veteran’s strengths and weaknesses below, it all very much falls under the caveat of what Bouye’s game was before and after 2019.

Below, you’ll see him confidently disrupt plays that the very next year would give him trouble. The best example of this duality are his two matchups against the Kansas City Chiefs. In Week 1 of 2019, Bouye struggled with the Chiefs receivers’ physicality and quickness. But less than a year prior, in Week 5 of the 2018 season, Bouye played phenomenal coverage against Kansas City, even manufacturing a pick with his aggressive play.

Still only 28, it’s not an unreasonable gamble to think that a once marvelously productive cover man could return to peak form. You be the judge based on the evidence below.

What he brings

Bouye is a pure boundary cornerback, who has the chops to play man coverage and has been one of the more productive DBs in the league the past five years—highlighted by a lights-out stretch in 2016-17 where he produced 34 pass deflections and seven interceptions in just 27 starts.

More so than having great eyes and instincts breaking on the ball, Bouye’s ball skills are a product of positioning, reading the quarterback and a knack for making awkward, high-level-of-difficulty adjustments on the ball.

He’s a long corner with soft hands and speed to keep up with vertical threats down the sideline or across the formation.

Here he is just last year running stride for stride with Tyreek Hill as the right corner.

Emmanuel Sanders couldn’t break loose on him either.

Bouye also gave rookie-sensation A.J. Brown a run for his money, making tons of plays on the ball in their first meeting this past season. What Brown and many receivers before him have learned is that Bouye is a physical press corner that won’t shy away from mixing it up with bigger guys.

When he’s playing with confidence and trust in the safeties behind him, Bouye can be a pest, closing on the ball quickly coming downhill.

He’s shown himself to be fluid in off coverage and can break on the ball with ease running routes for receivers.

Here he is giving Brown trouble again as the left corner.

He seems ideally suited to play more zone, overqualified even, with his ball skills and instincts on the ball. The freedom to play zone and only worry about attacking what’s in front of him could free him to play loose and get back to producing at the highest level.

Bouye is also ideally suited to play outside zone—cover 3 or cover 4—where he’s excellent at maintaining leverage and showing plenty of deep speed to stick with just about anyone.

As you might expect in Vic Fangio’s defense, Bouye is physical in run support and a sound, willing tackler. He might not play with reckless abandon like Kareem Jackson, but he’s very astute in timing his tackles against the run, avoiding bad angles and being in the right spot.

With the Jaguars, he also showed a bit of versatility playing a few snaps as a single-high safety in single receiver formations. His instincts and willingness to come downhill and tackle played up really nicely, showing there might be a path to extending his career—though, playing more zone should already help in extending his prime.

Does he still have it?

Bouye hasn’t lost his deep speed and might have had some bad luck with his on-ball production, but where he struggled noticeably in 2019 was defending double moves, as his quickness and balance weren’t the same.

It’s subtle but watch how Bouye is just a step late to react to Corey Davis’ cut inside, the type of pass he would’ve at least been able to contest prior to 2019.

You’ll see this with ball hawks as they can be too aggressive trying to play ball and can then be susceptible to double moves, but in 2019 it was a trend.

The aforementioned Chiefs game was a real eye-opener as Sammy Watkins’ physicality gave Bouye trouble at the line, and he again wasn’t as quick reacting and recovering on the comeback.

As the game progressed, Bouye seemingly lacked the confidence to break on the ball, playing to avoid big plays rather than to make plays. That conservative approach then led to bigger mistakes like reacting late in coverage and then whiffing on the open-field tackle.

Bouye can be very handsy as he tried to play sticky coverage and definitely crosses the line at times. This is especially true when he’s left out on an island and can draw holding penalties early in the snap. 

Below, in coverage on Travis Kelce, Bouye was both guilty of biting on a double move and too grabby, drawing a holding flag nullifying a third-down stop. 

Figuring out why Bouye struggled so much on double moves and coverage underneath will be key to maximizing his value.

Part of it was just being on an island in man, being a bit too conservative in his approach played a part in it as well. The bigger concern would be that his hip fluidity and recovery speed might’ve been just off, a concerning sign of things to come. 

Whatever the reason may be, Bouye was much more decisive attacking downhill on comeback and slant routes back in 2016-18.

With as much talent as he has, Bouye is also a bit lacking in elite strength, and that can show up against bigger targets. He got exposed a bit when lining up against team’s No. 1 receivers once Jalen Ramsey left—though he had already struggled in 2019 with Jalen on the field.

Restoring confidence in himself to attack downhill and make plays on the ball will be key. Being able to play behind a great duo of safeties should help a lot as will playing more zone, but the questions with Bouye are there.

Worth the risk?

From a compensation standpoint, the Broncos are getting a really strong return for a fourth-round pick they received from the San Francisco 49ers at the trade deadline for Emmanuel Sanders—in addition to a third-rounder. If Bouye is even just a competent starter, he’ll have justified the fourth-round return.

The bigger pill to swallow is Bouye’s contract, which comes with some opportunity cost. Considering the dollars already invested in the secondary—about $48 million with Justin Simmons’ franchise tag projected in there—this trade almost certainly takes Denver out of the running for the more expensive Byron Jones, the priced DB in this year’s free agency crop.

It also makes it hard to fit Chris Harris Jr. back into the fold, though you can certainly argue that Bouye is the more natural fit outside as a No. 1. Of course, losing Harris Jr. in free agency could mean receiving a third-round compensatory pick in 2021, which makes this move look like even more of a win.

Acquiring Bouye also takes the Broncos out the mix for say Darius Slay who probably doesn’t have as much potential to find a career renaissance in Fangio’s system the way Bouye does.

The smart bet here isn’t just that Bouye can return to his old form and have a couple of prime years remaining into his late 20s, but it’s how he can fit better in more of a zone scheme where his ball skills and physicality really play up.