DENVER — While there will likely be competition for playing time at multiple key spots on the Broncos roster, just one was officially declared by Broncos general manager John Elway and head coach Vic Fangio earlier in the offseason.
But will there be much of a duel at left tackle between Garett Bolles and Elijah Wilkinson?
Yes, Bolles did not do enough last year in the Broncos’ eyes to merit them picking up his fifth-year option. Yes, he led the league in holding infractions last year. And, yes, his late-season improvement in pressure rate coincided with Drew Lock becoming the starting quarterback.
Per the pressure statistics compiled by Pro Football Focus, Bolles allowed one pressure every 46.8 pass-protection snaps with Lock in the game, compared with one every 25.4 pass-pro snaps with Brandon Allen and one every 14.3 with Joe Flacco.
Holding rate told a similar tale. Bolles committed 0.2 holds per 60 minutes with Lock, compared with 1.0 per 60 for Allen and 1.13 per 60 with Flacco.
And then there is the pandemic effect. All of Wilkinson’s 19 regular-season starts heading into this season came at other offensive line spots — right guard and right tackle. To compete, Wilkinson needed the snaps that he would have had during OTAs, and would need the work in training camp and preseason that could be wiped out if teams are forced to gradually ease into work before a preseason slate that could be scrapped entirely.
Advantage, Bolles. The Broncos know their Lock-led offense can function with him at left tackle. Wilkinson earning the starting left-tackle job would be the first upset of the season.
But even if he does not beat out Bolles, he has a chance to solidify his future he gets enough repetitions to show progress from last year, when he started 12 games at right tackle in place of the injured Ja’Wuan James. Wilkinson’s play got steadier as the season progressed, and with six holding penalties, he averaged one such infraction every 140.7 snaps, compared with one every 78.8 for Bolles.
Wilkinson is set to become an unrestricted free agent next year, and how the Broncos perceive him will determine whether he is back. They saw enough out of him to give him a second-round restricted free-agent tender, a sign that he would be a significant factor into their 2020 plan.
But beyond this year, do they see him as a swing backup with the potential to start, or a clear reserve?
In 2019, a similar decision arose with Billy Turner, who made 11 starts in 2018 after being a reserve for the previous two seasons. Green Bay gave Turner $9 million in full guarantees and the chance to earn up to $28 million over four seasons, and he jumped at the offer.
As Turner’s contract showed, versatile backups who still possess the potential to become viable starters are in demand. This favors Wilkinson’s odds of upgrading his contract in 2021 — whether a new deal comes in Denver or elsewhere.
Wilkinson’s contract situation also illustrates that there is more in play than just the 2020 season: There is also the long-term future of both tackle spots.
Like Wilkinson, Bolles is set to become an unrestricted free agent next year. If James continues to battle injury problems, the Broncos could get out of his contract in 2021 and save $8 million of cap space, according to OvertheCap.com. The $6 million dead-money hit would not be ideal, but whenever the cap space exceeds the dead-money figure, a cut becomes a viable option.
So then the issue of long-term viability comes into play. If Bolles starts — and his positive trends in pressure rate and holding penalties from the final five weeks of 2019 carry over to this season — is Bolles worth a contract that could soar into eight figures of average annual value when next year’s free-agent and draft classes appear deep at tackle?
And what about the younger options on the roster, including guard/tackle Netane Muti, who briefly flourished at left tackle at Fresno State but saw most of his work at guard?
The Lisfranc injury Muti suffered last year could lead to him effectively receiving a redshirt season as a rookie, but the dominant potential he showed is too ominous to ignore. If Muti is healthy, he will have a long-term impact on the line.
Another wild card is Calvin Anderson. This is not due to the second-year player’s cryptic emojis. Rather, it’s because of his intelligence; in this department, Anderson is among the sport’s elite.
But realistically, the best outcome for Anderson is to get another year on the roster to continue building his frame in the weight room. This would allow him to add more power to the quick feet he displayed at Rice and Texas, where he played one season as a graduate transfer.
If Anderson sticks on the 53-man roster, an extra four months of practice could be invaluable into being a part of the Broncos’ long-term plans. Offensive-line coach Mike Munchak is patient with players who show developmental progress. For example, he had Alejandro Villanueva on his practice squad and then the 53-man roster as a reserve for a full season and five games of the following campaign before Villanueva made his first pro start six games into the 2015 campaign.
Patience could be the key for Anderson and Muti, whose work could help determine the Broncos’ future path. But for Wilkinson and Bolles, it’s about performance right now, and showing that they can be in the Broncos’ plans for more than the short term.
