Broncos Roundtable: When will Drew Lock get his first start?

 

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — On Tuesday, John Elway and the Broncos made two significant moves almost simultaneously.

The national headliner was saying so long to Emmanuel Sanders. The headscratcher was postponing Drew Lock’s potential return.

Will other players be out of town by Tuesday’s trade deadline? Will Drew Lock be part of Denver’s 2019 plans?

The DNVR Broncos Crew breaks it down.

WHAT WEEK WILL DREW LOCK GET HIS FIRST START?

Ryan

Sometime in 2020 — I hate to say it, but this is where I’m starting to feel things are trending.

When the Broncos drafted Drew Lock, their plan was to sit him for the entirety of his first year, and I think they are trying hard to not let the disappointment of this season impact their plan.

On one hand, if this is the case, there is something to be said for not falling victim to outside pressure. On the other hand, as we have talked about repeatedly, not taking the chance to at least learn something about Lock in what is otherwise a lost season would be a huge failure.

I hope I’m wrong.

Zac

Week 13 at home vs. the Chargers — I’ll stick with my original prediction made back in May. For now.

But the longer Drew’s not even practicing, the more worried I get he won’t even be one of the two players brought off the I.R.

If Denver somehow goes on a two-game win streak headed into the bye, despite only being 4-5, it’s very possible Lock will not be one of the two players brought off the I.R., and thus he will not be able to see the field for the entire season.

However, if the Broncos enter the bye 2-6, Lock will have to be one of the two brought back. At least that’s what I’m telling myself. But even if that’s the case, he won’t be displayed right away.

Instead of displaying Lock in back-to-back road games against stout defenses, the Broncos will wait until their next home game against the Chargers.

Then, Lock will have five games to prove he’s the guy.

Mase

Week 13 — It appears to be the ideal moment.

First of all, consider the possibility that Broncos go .500 in their next four games — three of which are on the road against teams that would be in the postseason if it began today. That would be a significant accomplishment and a sign of continued progress. Yet 2-2 means they would still be sitting at 4-7 heading into Week 13.

Two years ago, it was after the seventh loss that the Broncos inserted Paxton Lynch into the starting lineup to learn about what they had. Of course, that planned six-game stint lasted barely a half, collapsing in injury and tears in the East Bay rain.

A home game against a team the Broncos have already defeated would give Lock the chance to get his feet under him before a two-game road swing at Houston and Kansas City.

WHAT’S THE BEST TRADE THE BRONCOS CAN REALISTICALLY MAKE?

Ryan

Chris Harris Jr. for a second — It doesn’t sound like the Chris Harris bidding war has quite as many contenders as the Emmanuel Sanders one did, but if Denver can get a couple of teams going against each other, they might be able to pull this off.

In the end, Chris is a top-five corner in the NFL, and some Super Bowl contender should be willing to bet on the fact that adding a lockdown guy on the outside will be what it takes them over the top.

For the Broncos, even if they can’t get a second for Harris Jr., they should be willing to take a third for him. The best compensatory pick they could get in exchange for his departure would come at the end of the third round of the 2021 draft. Take the third.

Zac

Von Miller for a first and a day-two pick — Don’t get me wrong, Von Miller is a great player. Von Miller is a special player. Von Miller is an all-time Bronco.

But if the Broncos could get fair value for the Super Bowl MVP, they should make the difficult decision and act. At this point, a first-round pick and a day two pick for Von would make it worth it. Anything more would be a cherry on top.

Von’s on pace for six sacks. Six. That would be the second-lowest output of his career, outside of the five he put up in 2013 when he was suspended for six games and tore his ACL. He is on pace for only one more sack than that season. For whatever reason, Miller doesn’t appear to be his best getting after the quarterback in this scheme.

Could he have a bounce-back season? Absolutely, I fully expect it. But will he still be in his prime by the time the Broncos are back to truly competing? Likely not.

Yes, the dead cap would be significant, but the savings would be even more significant.

Do I think this will happen? Absolutely not. But he’s the most valuable player over 25 that Denver has and could bring back a significant return.

Mase

Chris Harris Jr. for a second-round pick — While a third-round pick would still represent better value than a compensatory pick if Harris leaves via free agency next spring, the fact that Harris remains one of the league’s best at a premium position puts the Broncos in a spot to demand a little bit more.

The Broncos have had plenty of time to re-sign Harris. The fact that they haven’t offers a sign that he may not be in their future plans. If he is not, it is best to make the deal now.

The idea of trading Miller has some merit if the team goes into total-teardown mode. The problem is that Miller’s skill set is difficult to replicate, and should hold up reasonably well into his 30s.

Consider this: Lat year, Miller, Ryan Kerrigan and J.J. Watt became the 19th, 20th and 21st players to post at least 80 sacks in their first eight seasons. Seventeen of the first 18 players to reach that eight-year milestone since sacks became an official statistic in 1982 had at least one 10-sack season after that. (Only Dexter Manley, whose career ended in a lifetime substance-abuse ban, didn’t have a double-digit sack season after having 80 sacks in his first eight years.)

Six of these pass rushers — Julius Peppers, Jason Taylor, John Randle, Leslie O’Neal, Reggie White and Bruce Smith — had at least three more double-digit sack campaigns after posting 80 sacks in their first eight years. Given Miller’s health and speed, his chances of joining that group are excellent.

Is a replacement pass rusher really going to be as effective as Miller will be in his 30s? The odds are against it. It is better to keep Miller and let him burnish his Canton-worthy resume in orange and blue.

RESULT VS. COLTS (-6.5)

Ryan

Colts 21, Broncos 13 — Combine the fact that teams have stopped respecting Joe Flacco’s arm with the fact that Emmanuel Sanders is no longer in the fold and you can be sure that the Colts are going to stack up against the run and blitz in passing situations.

There is nothing we’ve seen to this point that would lead us to believe the Broncos are going to be able to succeed under those circumstances.

The Colts have a strong defense and an efficient offense, this is going to be a tough one for Denver.

Zac

Colts 24, Broncos 13 — First and foremost, if the Broncos can’t run the ball, they’ll have no shot at scoring. Fortunately, the Colts have allowed 4.9 yards per carry, the fourth-worst mark in the league.

Without Emmanuel Sanders, the Broncos have one—one—receiving threat on offense in Courtland Sutton. Until proven otherwise, opposing teams should devote any and all possible resources to shut No. 14 down. If they are able to do that, the passing game on the arm of Joe Flacco could be in big-time trouble.

On the other hand, the Colts’ offense is capable of getting it done however they please. They have two 300-plus yard passing games under Jacoby Brissett and have run for over 165 yards three different times, meaning Denver’s defense has to play an all-around great game.

Coming off a 30-6 defeat at home against a Matt Moore-led Chiefs’ team, and having traded their best offensive player away, there’s not much optimism about the Broncos being able to pull off the upset.

Mase

Colts 20, Broncos 13 — Every one of Indianapolis’ 2019 regular-season games to date has been decided by one score, so I’ll stick with that.

Denver’s offense has also averaged 13.0 points per game in the nine games it has played without Emmanuel Sanders since 2014.

The Broncos have also held opponents to an average of 2.4 points below their season-long scoring average. Indianapolis averages 23.8 points per game. To keep the deficit at seven points, we’ll assume the Broncos do a bit better than average, holding the Colts to nearly four points below their season-long pacee.

Seems reasonable.