Broncos Roundtable: When will Denver get their first win?

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — The Broncos are two defensive stops away from being 2-2 and playing for second place in the AFC West on Sunday.

Instead, they’re staring at the worst start in franchise history if they lose to the Chargers in Los Angeles.

Speaking of the Chargers, only one team in NFL history has started 0-4 and made the playoffs. That was indeed the San Diego Chargers in 1992.

Can the Broncos make a remarkable turnaround?

The DNVR Broncos Crew breaks it down.

IN WHAT WEEK WILL THE BRONCOS GET THEIR FIRST WIN?

Ryan

It’s gotta be Week 6, right? Right?!? — Here’s the thing, the Broncos have are a couple bounces away from being 2-0 at home. Unfortunately for the team, they’ve come up just short in both of those meetings, but for the most part, they’ve done enough good things to win a football game.

It’s going to be hard to pick them to win many road games from here on out, but most of their home games are going to be coinflips. The coin can’t land on the wrong side again, can it?

Hope is the only plan at this point.

Zac

Week 6 against the Titans. Probably. Maybe. — This better be the week the Broncos win, or else very bad things will be in store. It’ll make the current 0-4 start look like sunshine and rainbows.

But this game is anything from a gimme. In fact, the Titans could have the formula to beat the Broncos in Denver. Three of the past four running backs that have ran for 200 yards in a single game have done so against the Broncos. The other one was Derrick Henry.

He’ll have as good of an opportunity as ever to accomplish this feat for the second time in his career after the Broncos allowed Leonard Fournette to go for 225 yards on the ground.

Surprisingly enough, Marcus Mariota doesn’t look too shabby either as he has seven touchdowns and zero interceptions for a 106.2 passer rating through four games.

This prediction could very well change after Sunday, especially if the Titans beat Buffalo.

Mase

Week 6 – As I noted, the Broncos are one of 22 teams since 1960 to start 0-4 but have a point differential of minus-28 or better. On average, those teams finished with 5.38 wins and got their first win in the sixth game.

I’m playing the percentages here. History says that teams like the Broncos have a 68.2 percent chance of breaking out of the winless start in their fifth or sixth game.

WHAT’S THE BEST-CASE SCENARIO BETWEEN NOW AND WEEK 9

Ryan

Young guns ball out, Broncos lose games — What you can’t have happen is the Broncos play well enough that the brass believes the best thing for the team is to continue to play Joe Flacco and ride out the rest of the season.

So, the best case scenario here is the Broncos go 0-4 while guys like Phillip Lindsay, Royce Freeman, Courtland Sutton, Dalton Risner and even Malik Reed play very well.

Then, when Drew Lock inevitably takes over the reins against the Browns, it will be the perfect symbolic torch passing to the young core as the new center of the team. That’s what this franchise needs.

Zac

Get fair value for vets that won’t be here next year — Outside of going undefeated and actually salvaging this season, this is the next best outcome for the Broncos until Week 9, when Drew Lock is eligible to return.

If vets, such as Emmanuel Sanders, Chris Harris Jr and Derek Wolfe, aren’t in Denver’s future plans, John Elway should look at trading them. All three of those players are on the final year of their contracts, too. However, Elway shouldn’t just dump these guys.

The best-case scenario would be for all of them to ball out over the next few weeks so competitive teams are fighting over all of them. We can dream, right?

Fair value in the Broncos’ eyes would look something like a second-round pick for Harris Jr., a third for Sanders and a day-three pick for Wolfe.

And if Von Miller has a few more double-digit sack games, Elway should listen to calls that include at least a first-round pick.

This would also allow the younger players on the roster to get valuable playing time and give the coaches enough film to find out if they can fit into their scheme moving forward.

Mase

Get clarity on what this team actually is – And that requires being at one of the extremes.

If the Broncos pivot 180 degrees and go 4-0 in the next four weeks, that’s enough to believe that the team is moving in the right direction. Thus, you could rationalize not being sellers at the trade deadline. The team would have a shot at an upset or two during the daunting five-game post-bye stretch that includes games at Minnesota, Buffalo, Houston and Kansas City. A 9-7 record would not be out of the question.

But if the Broncos are 1-3 or worse in the next four games, and continue to struggle closing out opponents, they would have to accept the reality of a rebuild. The trade deadline should be about maximizing the value of tradeable assets to acquire future draft picks. Drew Lock would need to start at least four games in the second half of the season.

The worst spot to be is 3-5 or 2-6. It would allow the Broncos to cling to hope, dim as it may be, and tread water. They need to swim to shore or sink altogether.

RESULT VS. CHARGERS (-6.5)

Ryan

Chargers 27, Broncos 21 — Unfortunately, I don’t see this being as close as this score would suggest, but something that looks a little more like the Broncos’ Week 1 game against the Raiders.

LA will be in control for most of the contest, but the Broncos will make a late surge to keep things interesting. A nice little backdoor cover.

Zac

Chargers 23, Broncos 20 — I wouldn’t be shocked if the Broncos stole this game. Last year, they won this game when Los Angeles was the far superior team by miles and miles and miles.

While the Chargers are once again the better team, they’ve been depleted by injuries. They’ll be without their star pass rusher Melvin Ingram, their stud safety Derwin James, their receiving tight end Hunter Henry and their starting left tackle Russell Okung, to name a few.

Sound familiar, Broncos Country? The Broncos will also be without their star pass rusher Bradley Chubb, their starting right tackle Ja’Wuan James and, to a lesser extent, their tight end Jake Butt.

However, the Chargers will have Melvin Gordon back for his first game. He, along with breakout-back Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen, the leading receiver in the NFL, will be too much firepower for Denver to keep up with. Have I mentioned Philip Rivers yet? He’s playing incredibly well, too.

Because of this, I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Chargers had their way with the Broncos.

Mase

Chargers 30, Broncos 24 – There’s enough to like about the direction of the offense to expect another solid performance. With Derwin James on injured reserve and Melvin Ingram still working his way back from a hamstring injury, this isn’t the formidable Chargers defense that held the Broncos to 10 points or fewer — including a shutout — twice in their last three games. Denver should move the football effectively.

Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers has four multi-interception games in the last two seasons. Half of them were against the Broncos. Don’t be surprised if he throws at Chris Harris Jr. — who seems poised to shadow Los Angeles wideout Keenan Allen — and the Broncos finally get that elusive first takeaway of 2019.

But anything gained by the Broncos defense with Kareem Jackson’s return to the lineup is offset by the loss of Bradley Chubb to a season-ending partial tear of the ACL. The Broncos will try to recreate Chubb in the aggregate with Jerry Attaochu and Malik Reed. But Los Angeles will likely try to run at Reed, and Melvin Gordon’s legs are fresh and spry after his early-season holdout.

The Chargers will also try to set up matchups with their running backs out of the backfield against Denver’s inside linebackers. If they can do this with Austin Ekeler — who has been more productive through the air than on the ground — the Chargers could unravel the Broncos’ defense from the inside out.

There are fundamental things to like about the Broncos. But there are good reasons why they have the league’s longest active losing streak.