Broncos Roundtable: What can Drew Lock do the rest of the season to win you back over?

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — For the fourth-straight season, the Denver Broncos are 3-6 after nine games.

In 2017, the Broncos dropped their next three games after the disappointing start. In 2018, Denver won their next three, before losing their final four games of the season and moving on from Vance Joseph. And in Vic Fangio’s first season in 2019, Denver dropped their next two games after the 3-6 start before finishing 4-1 under Drew Lock.

Unfortunately for the 2020 squad, the Broncos’ next three games are all against playoff teams. But the most important part of the final games of the season will be evaluating the pieces Denver has for the future, specifically at quarterback with Drew Lock.

What does No. 3 need to do in the final seven games of the season to prove he deserves more time as the Broncos’ starting quarterback?

The DNVR Broncos Crew breaks it down and gives their pick for Sunday’s game against the Miami Dolphins.

WHAT CAN DREW LOCK DO THE REST OF THE SEASON TO WIN YOU BACK OVER?

Zac

Consistent good quarterback play — Drew Lock’s stats through the first half of the season are not pretty.

The Broncos’ second-year quarterback has the worst completion percentage in the NFL (55), the second-most interceptions (10), the second-worst passer rating (66.5) and the third-worst QBR (39.7). He’s also in the bottom-third in passing touchdowns (7) and passing yards per game (213.9).

If he continues this play down the stretch, it will be clear the Broncos will be looking for another quarterback in the offseason.

But what’s been even more concerning is how he’s only put together a handful of productive quarters this season. Five of Lock’s seven passing touchdowns on the season and 42 of the 118 points the Broncos’ offense has scored have come in just two of the 24 quarters he’s played this season.

Not only will Lock have to play better for the Broncos to feel comfortable with him going into 2021, but he’ll also have to be significantly more consistent. Now, this doesn’t mean Lock has to light it up the rest of the season either. He just needs to show promise and consistency.

Down the stretch, Lock needs to have above a 2:1 touchdown to interception ratio and throw for at least 60 percent completion. Those numbers, however, are the bare minimum marks he has to meet.

Additionally, I need to see that Lock is progressing through his reads and reading defenses better than he has in the first half of the season.

Lock is capable of doing this. Heck, he did all of this in the final five games of 2019.

Mase

Better pre- and post-snap reads, better post-snap fundamentals — It would be easy to put specific numbers on Lock’s play, such as to say that he needs to reach a 90.0 passer rating over the remainder of the season, reach at least 60.0 in season-long completion percentage and throw at least twice as many touchdowns as interceptions.

If Lock improves at diagnosing blitzes, reading coverages and stepping into his throws, all of the necessary statistical improvements will likely follow. Most of his struggles in recent weeks can be tied to these issues. Ensuring proper pre-snap protection adjustments will fall at least as much on center Lloyd Cushenberry III as it will Lock, so that specific improvement would not be in a vacuum.

But a note of caution is necessary. Let’s say the Broncos are left playing out the string in December, just like they did in the final five games of 2019. If Lock is merely around the league average — in other words, good, but not spectacular — then prudence demands his performance be evaluated with the situation’s low leverage in mind.

Such a finish would allow Lock to return in 2021 as the starter, but in that case, the Broncos should bring in another quarterback as both insurance and a hedge if Lock has a further setback.

FINAL SCORE PREDICTIONS VS DOLPHINS (-3.5)

Zac

Dolphins 30, Broncos 16 — The Miami Dolphins are what the Denver Broncos wanted to be. Think about that, the way the Dolphins are playing right now is the way John Elway designed the Broncos to be.

The Dolphins have a top-five defense, only giving up 20 points per game, and an offense that is thriving with a young talented quarterback.

Elway built the Broncos to have a top-five defense and hoped Drew Lock and Denver’s young offense would be able to flash enough to rack up wins. Through nine games of the season, the Dolphins have successfully done that, while the Broncos haven’t found that type of success on either side of the ball.

That will continue for one more week against Tua Tagovailoa and defensive-minded head coach Brian Flores.

The Broncos’ offense struggled mightily against the Las Vegas Raiders sub-par defense. It will be even more difficult against a much better Dolphins’ defense.

Miami is 3-0 since making the quarterback switch to Tua. He’ll stay undefeated after his first trip to the Mile High City.

Mase

Dolphins 23, Broncos 20 — Miami’s success has come in an unorthodox manner.

Consider that the Dolphins are the 137th team since 1990 to have the following statistics after nine games:

• At least 50 fewer yards per game than their opponents;
• At last 0.25 fewer yards per play than their oppnents
• At least 20 fewer first downs through nine games than their opponents

Just three of those 137 teams were 6-3 or better after nine games, putting the Dolphins in the top 2.2 percent of those clubs. The average record of these teams is 2.5 wins and 6.5 losses.

Miami wins games at the margins — via special teams, maximization of red-zone opportunities and takeaways. Part of the Broncos’ hopes for an upset rest upon the fact that Miami is likely due some regression to the mean.

Do not be surprised if the game flows in a similar manner to the Broncos’ recent contests against the Chargers and Falcons, with Denver starting slowly before playing catch-up. Since Week 5, Miami has a league-best plus-79 point differential in the first half. The Broncos’ minus-38 point differential in that span is the NFL’s worst.