Broncos Roundtable: Predicting Denver’s record in the second half of the season

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — As expected, Brandon Allen will be the Denver Broncos starting quarterback to start the second half of the season.

Wait, what?

Midway through the season, the Broncos are on pace to finish 4-12 and have zero healthy quarterbacks that have ever taken an NFL snap. Not exactly the plan John Elway drew up for the team during the offseason.

But what if Allen is the next Tom Brady? Will the second half of the season be better than the first eight games?

The DNVR Broncos Crew breaks it down.

WHAT WILL DENVER’S RECORD BE IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE SEASON?

Ryan

2-6 — Unfortunately, while the Broncos have a pretty fantastic defense, their offense was more than anemic with a veteran quarterback running it, with nothing but inexperience coming the rest of the way, things aren’t going to get better.

In fact, in a few of the upcoming games (Minnesota and Buffalo), it really could get significantly worse.

With that said, I do think Drew Lock will find a way to gut out a couple of victories over the Chargers and the Raiders when he finally gets the call.

Now, if the Broncos get crazy and don’t play lock, I think there is a real chance this record is 0-8, especially if Brandon Allen and the boys can’t get a win this week. As good as the defense has been, if the offense gets worse, human nature could cause them to mentally fatigue and take a step back.

Zac

1-7 — Of the Broncos’ remaining eight games, four of them are against teams that are currently slated to be in the playoffs. Of the other four, one, Detroit, is .500 and another team, Oakland, is within one game of that average mark.

But all eight remaining teams have a better record than the 2-6 Broncos. So good luck with that.

In fact, the Broncos’ worst remaining opponent, going by record, is the 2-5 Browns. Unfortunately, and not to give away my pick for Sunday’s game two sections too early, the Broncos are trotting out Brandon Allen at quarterback. So good luck with that.

The four playoff teams Denver’s set to play are all road games. So good luck with that.

That leaves three winnable games left on the schedule—home against the 3-5 Chargers, home against the 3-4 Raiders and home against the 3-3-1 Lions.

Surprisingly enough, the Lions are actually playing competitive ball and could still be in it come Week 16, where the Broncos won’t be. Between the Chargers and the Raiders, I’ll give the Broncos one win.

Denver’s only chance at even getting close to a .500 record in the second half of the season lies with Drew Lock. However, if Lock isn’t able to find magic in his first few starts, the rookie could easily struggle to pick up a win or two.

If the Broncos don’t play the second-round quarterback, then good luck than getting more than a single win in the second half of the season.

Mase

3-5 — Overlooked in the blizzard of bluster regarding the Broncos’ quarterback situation is the performance of their defense, which has found its form since inserting nose tackle Mike Purcell and inside linebacker Alexander Johnson into the starting lineup while moving Shelby Harris to nose tackle.

In the last four weeks, the Broncos rank third in the NFL in points allowed per game (14.5), fourth in yardage allowed per game (259.8), second in yards per play allowed (4.26) and tied for first with New England in offensive touchdowns allowed per game (0.75).

There may be games where the defense buckles under the weight of carrying the offense, but you can also expect the Broncos to steal a surprise or two because Vic Fangio’s D is becoming one of the best in the game. If the Broncos can re-sign Chris Harris Jr. and Justin Simmons and get Bradley Chubb back to full health in 2020, you could be looking at the best defense in the league one year from now.

ON A SCALE OF 1-10, WHAT’S YOUR CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN BRANDON ALLEN?

Ryan

3 — Here’s my feeling on Brandon Allen: He’s going to have his struggles, but my confidence points here come from the fact that I also think he’s going to make a couple of big throws in each game.

He’s got a big-time arm and he knows that’s his best asset, he’s going to want to show it off and Rich Scangarello will give him that chance.

Where Allen really has to be careful is with the turnovers. He’s thrown nearly twice as many interceptions in the preseason as he has touchdowns, suggesting maybe he trusts his arm a little too much.

If he wants to keep himself from being the reason the Broncos lose, Allen needs to protect the football.

Zac

1 — This isn’t a shot at Brandon Allen and I hope he has tremendous success. But this is based off what the NFL has said about Allen and what he’s done, or hasn’t done, in the league up to this point.

Since being drafted in the sixth-round in 2016, Allen has been cut three different times and before this year, the highest he ever made it on a depth chart was third string.

With zero career regular-season snaps under his belt, the only way to evaluate the 6-foot-2 quarterback is in the preseason. Those numbers aren’t favorable either.

Allen has six touchdowns to 11 interceptions and a 70.9 passer rating. That’s not ideal, especially since most of that work has been against backups.

And the cherry on top was Chris Harris Jr.’s comments about the team’s new starting quarterback.

“I’m not going to judge a guy off a scout team. I don’t want to do him like that,” the veteran cornerback said with a laugh, not leaving much to the imagination about how Allen’s performed in practice.

But, as I said, I hope nothing but the best for him. It just isn’t promising.

Mase

4 — I looked back at some notes I had on Allen from when he was in the 2016 draft class. The final sentence: “Could be a 10-year backup, and there’s nothing wrong with that.”

A backup of that type could be expected to keep a playoff-caliber team afloat, i.e. to lead a 12-or-13-win-caliber team to a 2-2 record over four games. Of course, this is a Broncos team that is 2-10 in its last 12 games, so his cards aren’t dealt from a full deck here.

But for this game, there is the opportunity for the element of surprise to help him, similar to the relatively unknown pitcher called up from the minor leagues for a spot start. Often these pitchers come back to earth after opposing batters adjust, but for one or two starts, they can confound an opponent.

So maybe Allen is the Broncos’ Peter Lambert? If he is, the Broncos will win Sunday. Their offense might get squashed like grapes in Minnesota and Buffalo later this month. But in the parlance of David Bowie, maybe Allen can be a hero, just for one day.

RESULT VS. BROWNS (-3.5)

Ryan

Browns 12, Broncos 9 (OT) — Don’t you need to mow the lawn or shovel snow or something? Maybe get that out of the way and tune in for the end this week.

This game is going to be an absolute slog on offense. We’ve got ourselves a case of two very good defensive fronts against two struggling offensive lines—that is a recipe for some seriously ugly football.

If you want offense, turn on RedZone.

Zac

Browns 19, Broncos 13 — Despite being loaded with talent, the Browns are, well, the Browns—a dumpster fire, as some may say.

But, despite being 2-5, Cleveland is facing a slightly worse 2-6 Broncos team with a quarterback getting his first snaps in the NFL. That’s not typically a recipe for success.

If you’re not a fan of poor offensive performances, don’t tune in. However, if you’re a fan of dominant defensive performances, this will be the game for you.

For the Broncos to get 13 points, they’ll need some significant help from their defense, whether that be in the form of a pick-six or multiple takeaways leading to great field position for the offense. Fortunately, Cleveland loves turning the ball over.

If neither of those happens, 13 will be too many points for an offense without their starting quarterback and Emmanuel Sanders.

Mase

Broncos 13, Browns 12 — The Broncos came into last week averaging 13.0 offensive points per game when playing without Emmanuel Sanders since 2014. Then they scored precisely 13 points in the loss at Indianapolis. I’ll stick with this until being shown otherwise.

But the Broncos have done a terrific job holding opponents below their averages in recent weeks. Since making the personnel changes in Week 5, the Broncos have held foes to 7.4 points below their average — and that includes the defensive and special-teams touchdowns scored by the Chiefs and Chargers.

Cleveland is an underachieving team, far less than the sum of its parts. A team with this sort of weaponry should not average just 19 points per game. But it does. If the Broncos hold them to seven points below their average, they end up with 12.

Thus, 13-12.