Broncos Roundtable: Is it better for Denver to win or lose on Sunday against Carolina?

DENVER — The Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers face off on Sunday in a game that will likely have bigger implications on the 2021 NFL Draft than it will to the remainder of the 2020 season.

Sitting at 4-8, Denver is four games out of the playoff picture with only four games remaining. With that in mind, is it better for the Broncos to win or lose as they shift their sights toward the future?

The DNVR Broncos crew debates.

IS IT BETTER FOR THE BRONCOS TO WIN OR LOSE?

Zac

It all depends on Drew Lock — If Lock is the guy, it’s better for the Broncos to win every game down the stretch and show just how dangerous of a quarterback they have. However, up until this point, Lock has not proved that he’s the guy or even done enough to grab the starting job for next year.

If Lock continues to play the way he has throughout the duration of this season—nine touchdowns to 13 interceptions—then there’s no question the best thing for the Denver Broncos is to lose out.

Ending the season 4-12 would have two benefits. The first is it would put the Broncos in a prime position for a top pick in the draft. Additionally, it would give the 4-8 Carolina Panthers and the 3-9 Los Angeles Chargers at least one more win. That would help give the Broncos an even better draft pick.

I understand not wanting to accept losses at the end of the season in fear that it creates a losing culture. But the wins the Broncos have picked up at the end of the past four years have only hurt their draft stock while not helping build momentum for future years one bit. So if Drew Lock doesn’t show improvement, any wins Denver picks up down the stretch do not benefit them at all. In fact, they’ll just put them further away from the NFL Draft’s top quarterbacks.

Picking up two wins—especially if those are against the Panthers and Chargers—on masterful defensive performances where Lock and the offense struggle is absolutely the worst-case scenario for Denver in the final four games.

Mase

What kind of win?

There are few things more annoying than answering a question with a question. But it is valid here because the most valuable kind of win is one in which the young players demonstrate progress toward being significant long-term pieces.

Lock is key, of course, but unless he plays at an otherworldly level for the next four games, it would be wise for the Broncos to bring in a quarterback to, at minimum, provide competition and insurance next year. Even if Lock plays well the next four games, it would be fair to ask whether his improvement was borne out of low-leverage situations like the ones the Broncos will see in the next four games as they conclude another season out of the playoff picture.

But beyond Lock, the Broncos want to see young players flourish. Rookie cornerback Michael Ojemudia will be in the limelight Sunday with A.J. Bouye, Bryce Callahan and Essang Bassey out with a suspension, a foot injury and a torn ACL, respectively.

“I thought he played pretty damn well the other night, and I hope he can continue that,” Broncos coach Vic Fangio said.

Other players who have opportunities to cement and expand their places for 2021 include center Lloyd Cushenberry, wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler and defensive end Dre’Mont Jones. If the Broncos win — and these young contributors are the reasons why — then they will emerge from this game one step closer to crystallizing their complexion for 2021.

In the next four games, the process is more important than the result. Winning matters to the players and coaches, but for the team’s hopes next year, the process of player development is crucial.

Ryan

Lose a good Drew Lock game — The one thing you don’t want to see is the Broncos win a game in which Drew Lock played poorly. Why? Because it’s a step in the wrong direction for Drew Lock and a step in the wrong direction for your ability to get his replacement in the draft.

As previously discussed on the DNVR Broncos Podcast, Denver’s strength of schedule is the second-highest in the league, meaning they will “lose” any tiebreakers for draft position. Whatever group they find themselves tied in record-wise, they will get the worst pick of that group.

With that in mind, it would be better for Denver to lose this game with the Panthers, who they are currently tied with at 4-8. But in the end, the best-case scenario for these Broncos is for Drew Lock to pan out, meaning you would like to see him have a good game in Charlotte. If he has a good game and you win, great. If he has a good game and you lose, great. If he has a bad game and you lose, you’re starting to get clarity. You really would just like to avoid the scenario where Lock has a bad game and you win.

FINAL SCORE PREDICTIONS AT PANTHERS (-3.5)

Zac

Broncos 23, Panthers 20 — Sunday’s game between the 4-8 Broncos and 4-8 Panthers certainly isn’t a sexy national matchup, but it’s an even one. And that should be reflected on the field in Carolina on Sunday. It will all come down to Drew Lock and the Broncos’ offense.

The key to beating the Panthers is dropping 22 points on them. That should be an easy task for an NFL offense but hasn’t been for Denver this year. However, against the Panthers’ average defense, I think the Broncos will just squeak by the magic number of 22 to pull off the upset.

If Denver’s defense plays anywhere close to the way they played against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 13, they’ll be able to contain Carolina. A last-second Brandon McManus field goal will send the Broncos back to Denver with a win.

Mase

Broncos 27, Panthers 24 — Even without D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey, Carolina’s offense has enjoyed some explosive moments and could exploit a Broncos cornerback corps decimated by injuries and Bouye’s suspension.

But the Panthers’ defense has been inconsistent at best. In three of their last four games, opponents scored at least 28 points; the exception was a shutout against the Lions. Carolina has held three of its last five opponents to fewer than 4.0 yards per rushing attempt, but four of its last six foes have been highly efficient in the passing game, posting single-game passer ratings of 114.0 or better.

Carolina has lost six of its last seven games. The Broncos have lost five of their last seven. But the Broncos have a bit more momentum from their last two games with a quarterback. Furthermore, Denver is 3-1 against teams that are .500 or worse; Carolina is 3-3. Give the slight edge to the Broncos in a game that should be tight.

Ryan

Broncos 24, Panthers 21 — I’m expecting a good game from Drew Lock and Jerry Jeudy, who are able to take advantage of a questionable Panthers defense. On the other side, I expect to see Denver take away the run and force the Panthers to be one-dimensional in a way they do not want to be.

Denver survives a late push from Carolina to get the W.