Broncos Roundtable: How did Week 1 change your outlook?

 

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — The second week of the NFL season couldn’t get here quick enough for the Broncos.

Thankfully, one of the few bright spots from Monday night’s 16-24 loss to the Raiders was, well, that it made for a short turnaround to Sunday’s Week 2 game against the Bears.

But just how big of a loss was Monday night for the Broncos and will they get back on track at home against the Bears?

The BSN Broncos Crew breaks it down.

HOW DID WEEK 1 CHANGE YOUR OUTLOOK?

Ryan

A considerable amount — To be honest, the offense was about on par with what I expected, but the defense—a defense I expected to be one of the best in the league—got carved up by a mediocre quarterback with less-than-mediocre weapons. And they lost in the same way they’ve been losing. That is concerning.

To add injury to insult, the offensive line—which we said could only afford one significant injury all year—has already lost their highest-paid player for a significant period of time. One more injury and they’ll be asking Austin Schlottman or Corey Levin to step in.

It wasn’t a worst-case scenario, but it was pretty bad.

Zac

Significantly — Of course, you don’t want to overreact too much to the first game of the season. I get it. But, not only did Denver lose to a 4-12 team coming off a drama-filled weekend where they released their best player, they got beat by said team in every single phase of the game.

Vic Fangio’s defense didn’t look special, the offense couldn’t get the ball into the end zone until garbage time and special teams gave up yet another big return.

If you look at what happened on Monday night—knowing it’s the only real film of Vic Fangio as a head coach, Rich Scangarello as an offensive coordinator and Joe Flacco as the Broncos’ quarterback—and the way they got beat there has to be an immense amount of concern for a team that has won 11 games in the past two seasons.

Mase

Not at all – As I said in my “Eight Simple Rules” piece 10 days ago, you can’t put too much on the first game as long as it didn’t go to the extremes. In the final sum, a 24-16 loss in a place where the team hasn’t won since Peyton Manning was the quarterback doesn’t qualify as “extreme.”

Two things happened Monday that revealed improved discipline:

1. While the Broncos didn’t force any turnovers, they also avoided giveaways of their own. Last year, they didn’t play turnover-free football until Week 11; in the last two seasons, they turned the football over at least once in 27 of 32 games, including 17 games with multiple giveaways. Only the Browns, Jets and Cardinals had more such games in that span.

2. The officials flagged them seven times — six of which were accepted — down from their average of 9.3 flags per game last year.

Fewer turnovers, fewer penalties. If the Broncos continue doing that, they’ll be fine.

KEY TO GETTING BACK ON TRACK

Ryan

Get healthy and get pressure — One thing we underestimated last week was how much the traning camp injuries would impact the defense. Once they got on the field, it was abundantly clear that the abscences of Bryce Callahan and Todd Davis were a big deal for the Broncos defense.

So, first and foremost, they need to get those guys back, especially Davis who looks to be on track to play Sunday.

After that—and getting Callahan back would help this—they need to find a way to force the quarterback to hold the ball so they can take advantage of the postion they’ve invested in more than any other, outside linebacker.

Take away the quick stuff, or death by papercuts will be more prevalent than death by inches.

Zac

The Godfather needs to become scary — There was nothing intimidating about Denver’s defense on Monday night against the Raiders. That will have to change in a heartbeat for the Broncos to get this thing back on track.

The good news is it very well can. The better news is the Bears’ offense profiles as a team that can help Denver jumpstart their defense in a hurry.

Mitchell Trubisky’s mobility is great, except when going up against an elite pass rush with elite athletes in Bradley Chubb and Von Miller.

The key to beating the Broncos’ defense is getting the ball out quick. Well, that’s not Trubisky’s style of game. Instead, the mobile quarterback attempts to make plays himself, which results in him holding onto the ball and playing right into Fangio’s hands.

If, however, Matt Nagy changes the Bears’ offense overnight to get the ball out quick, Fangio will have to make immediate adjustments to counteract that.

Mase

Consistent production on offense – The magic number against the Bears defense is 5.3 yards per play. Beginning with Fangio’s arrival as defensive coordinator in 2015, the Bears are 1-14 when allowing at least 5.25 yards per play, including an 0-3 mark last year.

The Broncos averaged 6.1 yards per snap against the Raiders last week, but that was skewed by the fourth quarter, in which the Broncos had a 9.9-yards-per-play average. They need to find their stride much earlier.

RESULT VS. BEARS (-3)

Ryan

Broncos 12, Bears 10 — If you don’t like a good ‘ol defensive struggle, maybe you should mow the lawn on Sunday afternoon.

This game is not going to be pretty by any stretch of the mind, but it is the home opener, and the Broncos have won seven consecutive home openers, the longest streak in the NFL.

Additionally, since Invesco Field/Sports Authority Field/Broncos Stadium/Empower Field at Mile High opened in 2001, the Broncos have never lost a home opener that occured after Week 1.

I think this game is a tossup, but I’ll give Denver the nod based on history.

Zac

Bears 16, Broncos 13 — This would be a shootout for the Bears, who had a combined 13 points scored in their Week 1 game against the Packers.

Chicago’s offense can clearly be contained, especially by Denver’s defense led by Fangio. M.I.A. against Oakland, Von Miller and Bradley Chubb will make their presence felt significantly against Mitchell Trubisky in front of their home crowd.

Matt Nagy’s offense isn’t what’s scary.

Despite not having their leader, the Bears’ defense still appears to be elite. The part I can’t get over in this game is not only will Denver be facing Khalil Mack & Co., but the Bears’ lethal pass rush will be going up against Garett Bolles and Elijah Wilkinson—who will be making his first career start at right tackle.

That’s too tough a task.

Mase

Broncos 15, Bears 14 – I go back and forth on this and my winner changes hourly. Ask again later and I might give you a different winner.

This is a game that could be decided by a few big plays — and the mistakes that could be made by the opponent to set them up. The Broncos’ best chance is to force Trubisky into mistakes, and Fangio is capable of dialing up rushes and coverages to confuse him.