Broncos Roundtable: Has the rise of Justin Herbert impacted your opinion of Drew Lock?

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — Drew Lock vs. Justin Herbert.

Sunday 2:05 p.m. MST.

Part One.

On Sunday, for the first time in their young careers, Lock and Herbert will square off in what each team hopes will be a battle for many years to come.

But has Herbert’s hot start changed people’s opinions on the Broncos’ young quarterback?

The DNVR Crew breaks it down and gives their picks for Sunday’s game.

HOW HAS JUSTIN HERBERT’S PLAY IMPACTED YOUR OPINION ON DREW LOCK?

Zac

Made me question Lock’s ceiling — Entering the 2019 NFL Draft, I thought Drew Lock had all of the tangibles and intangibles to be a great quarterback in the NFL. I thought that so much, I advocated for the Broncos to trade up in the draft to grab him in the top 10.

After roughly half a season of starting under Lock’s belt, I’m still confident that he can be a good quarterback in this league. Justin Herbert’s magnificent start to his career, however, has made me question just how good, or great, Lock can be.

Again, Lock has impressed me with his small body of work. But Herbert hasn’t just showed what elite young quarterback play looks like, he proved that it’s possible for players other than just Patrick Mahomes to be elite while in their first year starting.

Through Herbert’s five starts, it’s impossible to say he doesn’t have what it takes to be elite. Heck, he’s been elite. In each start, the sixth-overall pick has either thrown for 300 yards or had three or more touchdown passes.

Taking his stats and putting them over a 16 game season, Herbert would be a near 5,000-yard passer with 38 touchdowns only 10 interceptions and a 108.1 passer rating. He would add 387 yards on the ground to go along with six rushing touchdowns.

With Lock, on the other hand, it’s very possible to make the case that he doesn’t have what it takes to be truly elite. Lock’s had one elite game — Week 14 against the Texans in which he threw for 309 yards and three touchdowns for a 136 passer rating. However, that’s the only game he’s had a passer rating over 100.

Taking his stats over the eight games he’s played from start to finish, Lock’s numbers would equate to 3,358 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, 14 interceptions and an 80 passer rating over 16 games. Those aren’t bad stats for the start of a players career. Again, I still believe in Drew.

However, Herbert’s consistent dominance to start his career has been somethin’ else, making me question just how high Lock’s ceiling can be.

Mase

It hasn’t changed it at all — All Herbert’s emergence does is crystallize the necessity of finding a franchise quarterback. The Broncos are now staring at the unenviable situation that Tampa Bay faced in the last decade, when it stared around the NFC South and saw a certain Hall of Famer (Drew Brees) and two quarterbacks whose peaks were good enough to earn NFL MVP awards (Matt Ryan and Cam Newton). You don’t want to find yourself in the same desperate situation the Bucs endured; in the end, they racked up a streak of 12 consecutive seasons without a playoff appearance.

Maybe you think I’m being alarmist here. But this is the consequence of not having “the guy” when your division rivals do.

The reasons why Lock fell into the second round in the 2019 NFL Draft have been on display this season: inconsistent footwork that leads to sub-optimal accuracy, struggles at getting past the first read and more throws with unnecessary risk than some teams would like.

Quarterbacks can and do get better, and Lock is putting in the work and study to improve. But the trend lines after his first two starts need to be reversed. In that span, he has a 70.6 rating since his third career start. Among 47 QBs to make starts 3 through 9 in their rookie or second year since 2010, that ranks 37th. And even if the Broncos had a league-average drop rate in those games, that wouldn’t be enough to nudge his completion percentage of 57.6 past the 60-percent baseline.

All Herbert’s success does is increase the urgency on the Broncos to find “the guy” — and their hopes that Lock can be it.

Ryan

Hasn’t changed it one bit — Allowing other players to impact your evaluation of an entirely different player is a big no-no.

Yes, Justin Herbert has been awesome, and if he continues to play this way, the Broncos’ need for a franchise quarterback becomes even more desperate. If anything, I would say you should be even more patient now with Drew Lock, but even that would be an overreation.

The only thing that should impact any feelings and decisions on Drew Lock is Drew Lock himself. If after this season, you believe he has what it takes to be the franchise quarterback, you roll with him. If you don’t, you don’t, but that decision shouldn’t be impacted by Justin Herbert or anyone else.

In the end, Herbert is the outlier. Usually, quarterbacks do not play this well this fast. Most follow a path much closer to the one Drew Lock is following, showing flashes of brilliance while also needing plenty of improvement. The ones who can make those improvements swim while the others sink.

John Elway get’s paid a whole lot of money to be able to make this decisions with a clear mind.

FINAL SCORE PREDICTIONS VS CHARGERS (-3)

Zac

Chargers 22, Broncos 19 — The Broncos haven’t scored 20 points in Drew Lock’s last four starts, excluding the Pittsburgh Steelers’ game where Lock only played in 13 snaps before being injured. The last time Denver topped more than 20 points in a game with Lock as their quarterback the entire game was Week 16 against the Detroit Lions.

In the eight games Lock has played from start to finish, the Broncos are averaging 19.375 points per game. Going up against an average Los Angeles Chargers’ defense, I think Denver will put up their 19 points per game average. Until the Broncos top 20 points in a game, it’s going to be hard to predict they’ll go over.

On the other hand, the Chargers’ offense under Herbert is averaging 26.6 points per game in his five starts. However, in Herbert’s last three starts, the Chargers are averaging an impressive 32.3 points per game.

With that said, I think Denver’s defense steps up to the challenge and brings the rookie quarterback back to earth. But it just won’t be enough for the Broncos to pull off the slight upset.

Mase

Broncos 24, Chargers 23 — There are two things that could work in the Broncos’ favor.

First is Denver’s defense — particularly its secondary, which returned to full strength last week when A.J. Bouye emerged after a four-game stint on injured reserve. Look for Vic Fangio to dial up disguised coverages to try and confuse Herbert and bait him into throws that appear to be into open territory. Denver’s savvy secondary has the chance to force Herbert into the type of “rookie game” he has so far avoided.

Then there is the Chargers’ defense, which has struggled without safety Derwin James and cornerback Chris Harris Jr.

The Chargers’ defensive metrics since Harris went on injured reserve aren’t great, but they aren’t Cowboys-level terrible across the board. They rank 21st in yards allowed per play, 24th in yards allowed per game, 18th in first-down rate and 14th in third-down conversion percentage. But they’re leaking where it matters most: on the scoreboard. Los Angeles has allowed more points than all but four teams (32.3 per game) and is particularly lousy late, giving up an average of 19.7 points after halftime in October. Rallies by Tampa Bay and New Orleans provided the thrust of that.

Yes, Lock is neither Drew Brees nor Tom Brady. Still, don’t be surprised if the Broncos marshal a comeback that saves their season.

Ryan

Broncos 27, Chargers 17 — This game has “narrative flipper” written all over it. Whenever you think you know what to expect in the NFL, the league reminds you that it is completely unpredictable.

The whole world is ready to crown Justin Herbert and many are ready to kick Drew Lock to the curb. It would be very on brand for the NFL for Lock to ball out and Herbert to struggle, and the matchups could very well point towards that happening.

On one hand, you have a Broncos secondary, who just got healthy last week and held Patrick Mahomes to his worst game of the season, including a staggering 0-8 on third downs. On the other hand, you have a Chargers secondary that has struggled to absorb the losses of first Derwin James and later Chris Harris Jr.

Don’t be surprised.

P.S. Albert Okwuegbunam scores his first career TD.