Broncos Roundtable: Can Denver end their Arrowhead woes?

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — The Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos have a few things in common.

They’re both riding one-game win streaks, they’re both coming off 45-10 victories, and they both play in the AFC West.

This year, that’s about where the similarities end.

The Chiefs (6-1) sit atop the entire AFC, led by the league’s best offense. Additionally, their lone loss came in the final seconds to the New England Patriots in Foxboro.

The Broncos (3-4) snapped their four-game losing streak in Week 7 and hope to ride a defensive performance for the ages as they move forward.

When the two teams met in Week 4, the primetime Monday night showdown exceeded expectations, with the Chiefs narrowly escaping the Mile High City with a 27-23 victory over the Broncos.

On Sunday, the two collide again in Kansas City. Will the result be the same the second time around or will Denver be able to pull off the upset on the road?

The BSN Broncos crew breaks it down.

WHAT CAN DENVER DO TO SLOW DOWN THE CHIEFS’ OFFENSE?

Ryan

Rush smarter, not harder — Patrick Mahomes is not a quarterback that you can just pin your ears back on. If you start rushing recklessly, like Denver did in the fourth quarter of the last matchup, he’ll kill you.

The Broncos need to turn to the rush plan they employed against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks in Week 1. In that plan, Denver essentially used Von Miller as a QB spy as Derek Wolfe occupied the outside blockers. As the pocket collapsed on Wilson, he was forced to escape where Miller was waiting.

The plan worked to perfection last time, I’d like to see it again.

Zac

Manage Mahomes — Earlier in the week, Vance Joseph said Kareem Hunt “makes it all go” in regards to the Chiefs’ offensive.

That may be true, but Patrick Mahomes puts Kansas City’s offense in the end zone. Often.

While Hunt’s seven rushing touchdowns is the fifth-most in the league, Mahomes’ 22 passing touchdown tops the league.

Look no further than the first time the two teams met.

Through the first three quarters of that game, Hunt complied 108 rushing yards, but the Chiefs were only able to put up 13 points.

In the fourth quarter, however, Hunt only racked up 13 rushing yards, while Mahomes went off for 153 passing yards and led the Chiefs to 14 points and the comeback win.

To beat the Chiefs, it’s all about stopping Patrick Mahomes. Denver should devote all of their resources to doing just that.

Andre

Adjust — The Broncos have been the closest team to actually stop KC’s powerful offense this year, holding them under 30 points in Week 4. If not for a few missed opportunities, they would have won.

A similar plan needs to be implemented this time around; pressure Patrick Mahomes, play a decent amount of zone, cover well deep, and tempt Mahomes to settle on short throws.

Of course, the Chiefs will adjust. The first adjustment will likely be running the ball more, especially when Denver’s in nickel or dime, where they’ve really struggled to stop opposing rushers. Since their last meeting, the Chiefs have started to target their running backs more in the passing game, resulting in 15 receptions for 199 yards in the last two games.

Adjusting to these new wrinkles and playing at a high level in a hostile environment will make stopping KC an even tougher task. 

KEY MATCHUP

Ryan

Case Keenum vs. Turnovers — The Broncos quarterback has thrown an interception in every single game this year.

In the last matchup, while his interception wasn’t exactly a turning point in the game, it cost Denver a chance to take an early lead in the second half and points on that drive could have been the difference between winning and losing.

The long and short of it is, when you are playing a team that is better than you, you simple can’t afford to give away opportunities.

If Denver is going to have a chance, Keenum needs to keep the turnover sheet clean.

Zac

The tackle box — In the Week 4 matchup between the two teams, Mahomes went 10-for-15 for 195 yards when he was outside of the pocket. That’s the most passing yards outside of the pocket in a decade, with many of those yards coming in the fourth quarter when the Chiefs put up 14 points.

For the Broncos to slow Mahomes down, and thus have a chance to win, they’ll need to keep Mahomes in the tackle box.

Von Miller, Bradley Chubb, Derek Wolfe, and Adam Gotsis will be key in that task.

Andre

Back seven has to ball out — Emmanuel Sanders once said about the no-fly zone that he had “a jet, a private jet.” Well, the Chiefs have a damn spaceship the way they’re playing on offense, and with Sammy Watkins at full health—who was injured early in Week 4—they’ll be even harder to stop.

The Broncos defensive back-seven played great in the first meeting between these two teams, they’ll have to play even better without the advantage of the home crowd behind them.

Bradley Roby has to track the ball well and play the inspired brand of football we saw against the Arizona Cardinals. Justin Simmons has to read everything perfectly, and if the Chiefs are to target running backs more, Darian Stewart has to fly to the ball underneath. Key backups like Tramaine Brock and Will Parks will be tested against phenoms like Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill.

If the back seven doesn’t play at an elite level, Denver won’t have a chance. 

THE BRONCOS WIN IF

Ryan

They get all the bounces — Every game has its bounces, whether it’s the literal bounce of a fumble or a missed call here or there or something else, there are turns of luck throughout this contest.

To this point in the season, may of the bounced have gone KC’s way—for example, they’ve fumbled eight times and only lost one—if Denver is going to win this one, the need to get some big-time bounces.

They’re also going to need some sort of game-breaking play like a punt return TD or a pick-six.

Zac

They drop 40 points… — There is no easy way to say this, but the only proven way to beat the star-studded Chiefs is to outscore them.

In Week 4, the Broncos did their best to slow down their offense, holding the Chiefs to a season-low 27 points. That didn’t get the job done.

The Patriots, led by Tom Brady, handed Kansas City their only loss by outscoring them 43 to 40. A smilier performance will be required by Case Keenum and Co. in order to beat Mahomes.

Andre

They win the turnover battle — It’s an old cliche that has probably been overused this season, but at Arrowhead, it’s really true; the Broncos must create turnovers.

Whether it’s a Mahomes interception or a forced fumble, it doesn’t matter, but it has to happen.

The offense will have to manage the ball as well and extend drives to keep the ‘D’ fresh.

The Chiefs QB has finally thrown a few picks since the last time these two teams met, that’ll have to continue if Denver is to win on Sunday.

RESULT (Chiefs -10)

Ryan

Chiefs 31, Broncos 24 — I have a feeling this is going to be one of those games that the Broncos are never out of but also never in it until the very end. Denver will play them closer than a lot of people are predicting but, in the end, the better team will prevail.

When it comes down to it, too many things need to go the Broncos’ way for them to get the W.

Zac

Chiefs 34, Broncos 20 — Beating the Chiefs in Arrowhead is tough. Heck, the great John Elway went 4-10 in his career in Kansas City.

Add the fact the Chiefs own the best record in the AFC, and the league’s best offense and Denver is in for a doozy of a challenge.

The Broncos played Kansas City close in Week 4, but at home on Sunday, the Chiefs will look to show their dominance against their division rival.

There’s a reason the Chiefs are favored by double-digits.

Andre

Chiefs 31, Broncos 17 — It just feels like the Chiefs offense will be too much to overcome at Arrowhead. More than just the attack, with a beat-up Broncos O-line, KC’s defense is going to present some problems as well with Dee Ford playing great lately.

Unless the Broncos prove they’ve restored their defense and managed to greatly improve their offense, this will be a two score loss.