Broncos Roundtable: A game of tag, re-sign or let walk

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — John Elway appears to have a dilemma on his hands. The Denver Broncos have many quality players with expiring contracts.

Justin Simmons, Garett Bolles and Shelby Harris headline Denver’s group of players that are set to hit free agency after the 2020 season. The Broncos can use the franchise tag, however, they can only use it on one player.

If touch decisions have to be made in the offseason, how should Elway and the Broncos go about handling their top players?

The DNVR Broncos Crew discusses in a game of tag, re-sign and let walk.

BETWEEN JUSTIN SIMMONS, GARETT BOLLES AND SHELBY HARRIS, WHO SHOULD DENVER SIGN, TAG AND LET WALK?

Zac

Sign: Justin Simmons

When the Broncos did not make Justin Simmons one of the highest-paid safeties in the NFL with a long-term contract this past offseason, I actually thought it was the right move. There was no doubt Simmons is a great safety, but he just wasn’t enough of a game-changer to take up that much cap space.

That changed this year.

Simmons has proved he’s more than just one of the best safeties in the league. The 27-year old has proved he’s a dynamic playmaker as he already has a career-high four interceptions with six games remaining.

It’s time for the long-term deal for Simmons.

Tag: Garett Bolles

Garett Bolles deserves to be a Pro Bowler and should even be in the All-Pro conversation. One year ago, that sentence would have been greeted by boos from Broncos Country. Ten games into the 2020 season, that’s exactly what type of player Bolles has become. His improvement over the past year has been remarkable.

Since the Broncos declined his fifth-year option before the season, Bolles is set for a massive payday in 2021 with the way he has played this year. It makes zero sense for Denver to let him go right after he developed into the first-round pick they hoped he would be.

That means Elway will either have to sign Bolles to a long-term deal or franchise tag him. With the price tag being steep either way, the Broncos might as well tag him and make him prove he can play at this elite level for two straight years. If he does, then the Broncos will happily make him one of the highest-paid left tackles in the NFL in 2022.

Let Walk: Shelby Harris

The Broncos were prepared to let Shelby Harris walk last year. In fact, they did let him leave. But after the free-agent market wasn’t as lucrative as Harris hoped, he came back to Denver for another prove-it year. In 2020, he’s proven he’s worth a lot.

But Fangio has also proven he doesn’t have to have stars all across the defensive line in order to have success. In fact, with Harris sidelined on the COVID-19 list the past three games, the Broncos have allowed less than 100 rushing yards twice.

This isn’t to say Shelby doesn’t have long-term value to the Broncos, because I do believe he would be a great piece in Denver for many more years. But compared to Simmons and Bolles, he is the most expendable due to his position.

Mase

Sign: Simmons

Negotiations on a long-term deal last summer failed to result in a multi-year contract, making Simmons the first player in the Elway era to actually play a regular season on the franchise tag. Every other player tagged by the Broncos in the last decade signed a multi-year deal before the July deadline.

A multi-year contract was never going to be cheap. But Simmons is poised for a massive payday, as he has backed up his superlative 2019 campaign with a season that is at least as stellar. He sits atop the Pro Football Focus rankings among safeties and last week became the first Bronco since Champ Bailey in 2005-06 to post consecutive seasons with at least four interceptions. He could become the NFL’s first safety with a $15 million price tag.

It would be one thing if such a contract was an overpay for a middling player. But at this moment, Simmons is the best at what he does, and if he stays in Fangio’s season, he could become one of the Broncos’ all-timers at the position, putting him in the company of greatness.

Tag: Bolles

There is ample reason for the Broncos to tag Bolles, not the least of which is the substantial savings they could have on Bolles’ deal in 2020 if he plays on the franchise tag to prove that he can string together consecutive outstanding seasons. According to OvertheCap.com, the franchise tag for an offensive lineman next year is expected to be $14,145,000. That would make Bolles’ cap figure for next year rank 11th among left tackles, per OvertheCap.com.

But the long-term considerations must also come into play. If Bolles plays 2021 on the tag, and then turns in another stellar season, the average annual value of his contract will likely be above $20 million. The Broncos could get this down if they tag Bolles and then sign him to an extension before next July’s deadline.

Let Walk: Harris

Of course, the Broncos don’t necessarily have to let one of these three players go. They could have all three, and Harris’ price tag will likely be the lowest of the trio — although it should see a reasonable raise over the 1-year, $3.25 million salary on which he is playing the 2020 season. One development to watch could be the contract situation for Jurrell Casey, who carries a cap number of $11,874,750 in 2021. The Broncos could cut Casey and have no dead money. That leaves open the possibility of a restructure. But it is possible the Broncos could look at Casey and Harris and decide to bring back one or the other. The decision could come down to which terms are more amenable.

Ryan

Sign: Justin Simmons

The good news is Justin Simmons is having a great season. The bad news is the Broncos weren’t able to get a deal done with him last offseason and his price is only going up.

The Broncos didn’t want to buck up the kind of coin befitting of one of the best safties in the league, but where they erred in their judgement is in thinking the price would go down for Simmons in year two of the Fangio defense, not to mention the fact that Simmons is close enough to the top of the safety market that he’s going to command that type of money either way.

This season, Justin looks more comfortable and calm in this defense, allowing him to rely on his instincts to make game-changing plays. Add in his locker room presence and his work in the community and this is a no-brainer.

Tag: Garett Bolles

In what has really been the best story of 2020 for the Broncos, Garett Bolles has gone from the whipping boy of the fanbase to Pro Football Focus’ highest rated tackle in the NFL. It’s the type of story that will have GMs all over the league thinking twice before giving up on a first-round pick too early, and the type of story that is going to make Bolles a very rich man.

For the Broncos, though, they have to be careful here. While everyone hopes this is not a fluke, one good season does not make a franchise left tackle, and by putting the tag on Bolles next season, Denver will pay handsomely for another look at Bolles to make sure 2020 wasn’t a mirage.

In the end, the best case scenario is that they’re signing him up for a long-term deal after that.

Let Walk: Shelby Harris

This isn’t fun, but we had to let someone walk and Shelby figures to be the easiest—while not easy—to replace. In fact, the Broncos thought they had what they needed to replace him last year, when they planned on letting him walk, only to sign him up at an incredible discount after he tested the waters and didn’t like what he found.

Shelby’s ability to rush the passer from the interior, propensity for batting down passes and proficiency in the run game will be missed, but it you have to let one of these three go, he’s likely the guy.

FINAL SCORE PREDICTIONS VS SAINTS (-6)

Zac

Saints 20, Broncos 16 — The New Orleans Saints aren’t 8-2 just because of Drew Brees. Not only are they loaded with offensive weapons, but they have a borderline elite defense.

In the past three games, the Saints have allowed just over eight points per game. Eight. Unfortunately for the Broncos, after finding their groove on offense by relying on the ground game, the Saints have the NFL’s best-run defense.

On the season, New Orleans is giving up a league-best 74 yards per game on the ground and have only allowed 36 rushing yards per game over their last three games. Unless the Broncos’ offense is able to break the Saints’ run defense, the game will rest on Drew Lock’s shoulders.

On the other side of the ball, Vic Fangio will have success containing dual-threat quarterback Taysom Hill. But the Saints experienced offense will ultimately make one more play than the Broncos young offense in the low-scoring game.

Mase

Saints 23, Broncos 16 — Miami’s defense was impressive in terms of points allowed, but some of its underlying numbers reflected a unit that was primed for regression if an opponent could capitalize, particularly on the ground. New Orleans’ surging defense doesn’t offer that same luxury. It ranks third in total defense, fourth in yards allowed per play, fourth in sack rate, third in first-down rate and first in first-down rate on the ground, allowing just one of every 5.7 attempts to move the chains. Its strengths dovetail with what Denver’s offense did best last week, which makes this a stern test.

The concerns are different for Denver’s defense, which doesn’t have to face Brees — but will still see a Saints attack that gives Hill myriad options. While the Broncos’ cornerback combination of A.J. Bouye and Bryce Callahan should be able to neutralize the Saints’ outside receivers, slot cornerback Essang Bassey and linebackers Alexander Johnson and Josey Jewell will be tested in coverage by running back Alvin Kamara and tight end Jared Cook. The Saints could even try and move Emmanuel Sanders into the slot to set up matchups against Bassey, a rookie who has acquitted himself well so far but hasn’t faced the kind of test that could loom Sunday.

Denver has the defensive chops to keep the game close, but New Orleans could have too many weapons on both sides of the ball.

Ryan

Broncos 16, Saints 13 — I hope you like defense and punters.

Here’s the way I see it: Both of these teams really want to run the ball and both of these teams have the ability to take away the run.

For the Broncos, they’ll be facing the No. 1 run defense in the NFL, even getting 100 yards on the ground will be an accomplishment. As for the Saints, Vic Fangio loves a one-dimensional offense, just look at what he did to the Marcus Mariota and Derrick Henry-led Titans last season. Not to mention the fact that the Saints will be without the entire left side of their line.

In the end, it’s going to come down to which team can come up with a couple big plays in the air. While I see it as a true tossup, I’ll go with the Broncos in this one.