Broncos Playoff Watch: Everything Denver needs to make a playoff push, despite incredibly long odds

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — For the first time in their playoff push, the Denver Broncos no longer control their own destiny.

After Sunday’s crushing loss to the Bengals, Denver’s playoff hopes took a nose dive. Now, the Broncos have to not only take care of their own business, but they need help in order to make the postseason.

Here’s your Week 16 Broncos playoff playbook on where Denver stands, what help they need, who to cheer for this weekend and the team’s current playoff odds.

AFC West Standings

1. 10-4 Kansas City Chiefs
2. 8-6 Los Angeles Chargers
3. 7-7 Las Vegas Raiders
4. 7-7 Denver Broncos

Just like that, the Broncos are back in the cellar of the AFC West. But Denver will be able to change that on Sunday in Las Vegas.

If, however, Denver loses, they’ll be in a very deep hole in the division as the Raiders will not only have a one-game lead on them, but Las Vegas will also own the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Broncos would have to win their final two games, with the Raiders losing their final two games for Denver to jump them in the division.

Playoff Picture

In the playoffs

1. 10-4 Kansas City Chiefs
2. 9-5 New England Patriots
3. 9-5 Tennessee Titans
4. 8-6 Cincinatti Bengals
5. 8-6 Indianapolis Colts
6. 8-6 Los Angeles Chargers
7. 8-6 Buffalo Bills

In the hunt

• 8-6 Baltimore Ravens
• 7-6-1 Pittsburgh Steelers
• 7-7 Las Vegas Raiders
• 7-7 Miami Dolphins
• 7-7 Cleveland Browns
• 7-7 Denver Broncos

Last week, tiebreakers were the only thing that kept the Broncos out of a playoff spot. This week, however, they are a game back of all three wild card spots.

Denver currently is the 13th seed in the AFC, only ahead of the 3-11 Jets, the 3-11 Texans and the 2-12 Jaguars.

Broncos Playoff Odds

Here are the Broncos’ current playoff odds, according to FiveThirtyEight:

To make the playoffs: 5%

To win the division: 0.2%

To have a first-round bye: <0.1%

To win the Super Bowl: <0.1%

The Broncos-Bengals game on Sunday wasn’t truly an elimination game. But it wasn’t far from it. If Denver had won, their odds to make the playoffs would have been over 30 percent. Since they lost, they fell to only five percent.

A win on Sunday against the Raiders would keep the Broncos’ hopes alive and improve their playoff odds to 11 percent.

A loss, however, would plummet them to less than one percent. It would take them down to 0.1 percent to be exact. If Denver ties Las Vegas, their playoff odds would only decrease to four percent.

For all practical, and essentially mathematical, purposes, Denver’s season will end the day after Christmas if they fall to Las Vegas.

That’s not the Christmas present Broncos Country is looking for.

What the Broncos Need this Weekend

The Broncos now need help. But they don’t have to get that help this weekend. With Denver one game back of all three wild card spots, they’ll need at least all but two teams ahead of them to lose at least once. And even then, they’ll still need things to break their way when it comes to the tiebreakers. As it stands now—and as it projects out—tiebreakers do not look favorable for Denver.

To not have to rely on tiebreakers, which the Broncos shouldn’t, Denver will need all but at least two teams to lose two of their final three games, with the Broncos winning out, in order for them to snag a wild card spot.

Here’s the remaining schedule of those teams:

Indianapolis Colts

• Week 16: @ Cardinals
• Week 17: vs Raiders
• Week 18: @ Jaguars

Los Angeles Chargers

• Week 16: @ Texans
• Week 17: vs Broncos
• Week 18: @ Raiders

Buffalo Bills

• Week 16: @ Patriots
• Week 17: vs Falcons
• Week 18: vs Jets

Baltimore Ravens

• Week 16: @ Bengals
• Week 17: vs Rams
• Week 18: vs Steelers

Cleveland Browns

• Week 16: @ Packers
• Week 17: @ Steelers
• Week 18: vs Bengals

Pittsburgh Steelers

• Week 16: @ Chiefs
• Week 17: vs Browns
• Week 18: @ Ravens

Las Vegas Raiders

• Week 16: vs Broncos
• Week 17: @ Colts
• Week 18: vs Chargers

Miami Dolphins

• Week 16: @ Saints
• Week 17: @ Titans
• Week 18: vs Patriots

To ask all but two of those teams to lose two of their remaining three games is a tall task. However, outside of the Bills and Colts, every team could very well lose two of their final three games and keep Denver’s playoff hopes alive.

What to Cheer for this Weekend

• 8-6 49ers @ 9-5 Titans — Thursday Night Football, 6:20 PM
  • The Titans losing helps the Chiefs lock up the No. 1 seed in the AFC quicker. The reason the Broncos want that is so Kansas City doesn’t have anything to play for in Week 18, making it an easier game for Denver. Go 49ers
• 7-7 Browns @ 11-3 Packers — Saturday, 2:30 PM
  • Cleveland has the same record as Denver, but has the tiebreaker. And why not pull for the Broncos’ next potential QB? Go Packers
• 8-6 Colts @ 10-4 Cardinals — Saturday, 6:15 PM
  • Broncos would greatly benefit from two Colts losses down the stretch. Go Cards
• 8-6 Bills @ 9-5 Patriots — Sunday, 11:00 AM
  • If the Bills lose, that would help Denver gain ground for a wild card spot. However, that would keep the Patriots competitive with the Chiefs for the No. 1 seed and prolong Kansas City locking up the top spot. But ultimately, the Broncos need help in the wild card battle. Go Patriots
• 8-6 Chargers @ 3-11 Texans — Sunday, 11:00 AM
  • Go Texans
• 8-6 Ravens @ 8-6 Bengals — Sunday, 11:00 AM
  • The Broncos have lost to both of these teams. When it comes to additional tiebreakers, the Bengals have a better conference record than the Ravens. Denver would want the team with the weakest conference record. Because of that, the Broncos want the weakest resume to lose. Whoever loses this game, Denver will want them to lose at least one more. Go Bengals
• 7-6-1 Steelers @ 10-4 Chiefs — Sunday, 2:25 PM
  • A Chiefs win would be doubly beneficial for the Broncos. It would help Kansas City lock up the No. 1 seed before playing Denver in Week 18 and it would also help the Broncos jump the Steelers in the wild card race. Go Chiefs
• 7-7 Broncos @ 7-7 Raiders — Sunday, 2:25 PM
  • You know.
• 7-7 Dolphins @ 7-7 Saints — Monday, 6:15 PM
  • Go Saints