Broncos Playoff Watch: Denver's playoff hopes are still very much alive

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — The Denver Broncos missed a massive opportunity to take the lead in the AFC West last Sunday when they fell to the Chiefs in Kansas City.

However, their playoff hopes are far from over.

In fact, despite sitting at the bottom of the AFC West, Denver is only one game back of all three wild card spots.

Here’s your Week 14 Broncos playoff playbook on where Denver stands, who to cheer for this weekend and the team’s current playoff odds.

AFC West Standings

1. 8-4 Kansas City Chiefs
2. 7-5 Los Angeles Chargers
3. 6-6 Las Vegas Raiders
4. 6-6 Denver Broncos

If Denver had beat the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football, they would be the No. 1 seed in the AFC West. But that didn’t happen. Instead, they fell to the bottom of the division. Las Vegas holds the tiebreaker over Denver after Derek Carr torched them 34-24 in Week 6.

With three division games left, the Broncos have plenty of time to go from worst to first—or second or third—in the final five weeks of the season.

Playoff Picture

In the playoffs

1. 9-4 New England Patriots
2. 8-4 Tennessee Titans
3. 8-4 Baltimore Ravens
4. 8-4 Kansas City Chiefs
5. 7-5 Los Angeles Chargers
6. 7-5 Cincinatti Bengals
7. 7-5 Buffalo Bills

In the hunt

• 6-5-1 Pittsburgh Steelers
• 7-6 Indianapolis Colts
• 6-6 Las Vegas Raiders
• 6-6 Cleveland Browns
• 6-6 Denver Broncos
• 6-7 Miami Dolphins

The good news is the Broncos are only one game out of the final three wild card spots. The bad news is there are five other teams in the hunt with the Broncos on the outside looking in with nearly the exact same record.

After Sunday’s game against the 1-10-1 Detroit Lions, the Broncos’ final four games are all against teams either in the AFC playoffs or in the hunt in the AFC.

On one hand, that means the Broncos have a daunting schedule to end the season. On the other hand, it means Denver will control their own destiny.

Broncos Playoff Odds

Here are the Broncos’ current playoff odds, according to FiveThirtyEight:

To make the playoffs: 17%

To win the division: 4%

To have a first-round bye: <0.1%

To win the Super Bowl: 0.3%

If the Broncos had beat the Chiefs, their odds to make the playoffs would be over 50 percent and their odds to win the AFC West would be over 30 percent.

But after not pulling off the massive upset, Denver’s playoff odds and division odds are drastically worse.

A victory against the lowly Lions won’t improve Denver’s odds much. A win on Sunday and the Broncos’ odds to make the playoffs would only jump to 20 percent, while their odds to win the division would stay at four percent.

If the Broncos lose to the Lions, however, not only will Denver’s hopes and dreams be crushed, their playoff odds will plummet to five percent, while their odds to win the AFC West would tank below one percent.

What the Broncos Need this Weekend

Denver’s not quite yet in a dire position where they need things to happen this weekend in order to make the playoffs. What they need the most is a victory over the Lions.

But in the chase for the AFC West, the Chiefs falling to the Raiders would keep the division competitive, as it’s been all season. Another win for Kansas City and they’ll truly be running away with the division. Unfortunately, that may be best for Denver (read below).

What to Cheer for this Weekend

• 6-5-1 Steelers @ 5-7 Vikings — Thursday, 6:20 PM
  • Go Vikings
• 2-10 Jaguars @ 8-4 Titans — Sunday, 11:00 AM
  • Go Jaguars
• 6-6 Raiders @ 8-4 Chiefs — Sunday, 11:00 AM
  • If the Broncos think they have any shot at the division, then they’ll want the Chiefs to lose. However, realistically, the Chiefs are taking off with the AFC West. In that case, the best thing is to eliminate the Raiders. Go Chiefs
• 8-4 Ravens @ 6-6 Browns — Sunday, 11:00 AM
  • Similar to the conversation above about the Chiefs, the Broncos aren’t in the hunt for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, so the Ravens winning doesn’t impact Denver much at all. The best thing for the Broncos is to have other teams in contention for the wild card spots, such as the Browns, eliminated. Go Ravens
• 4-8 Giants @ 7-5 Chargers — Sunday, 2:05 PM
  • Go Giants
• 1-10-1 Lions @ 6-6 Broncos — Sunday, 2:05 PM
  • Denver simply can’t lose to the worst team in the NFL and expect to make the playoffs.
• 6-6 49ers @ 7-5 Bengals — Sunday, 2:25 PM
  • Go 49ers
• 7-5 Bills @ 9-3 Buccaneers — Sunday, 2:25 PM
  • Go Bucs