Broncos Pick 'Em: Which of the Denver’s next three games is the most difficult?

The great news is the Denver Broncos are in the thick of a playoff run in the middle of December.

The good news is three of the Broncos’ final four games are against teams in the chase for a wild card spot, meaning Denver will be able to help their cause significantly by beating those other teams in the hunt.

The bad news, on the other hand, is that means their final stretch run is brutal.

Denver’s next three games are against the 7-6 Bengals at home, the 6-7 Raiders on the road and the 8-6 Chargers on the road. The Broncos will then finish the season at home against the 10-4 Chiefs.

It’s too early to tell if Kansas City will be playing for anything come Week 18, so that game could either have huge implications for both teams or the Chiefs could be resting their starters for the playoffs. With that said, Denver’s next three games are almost guaranteed to have massive playoff implications for all teams involved.

Which of those games is the most difficult for the Broncos?

The DNVR Crew breaks it down in the 15th edition of Broncos Pick ‘Em.

All odds below are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

What’s Denver’s toughest game in the next three weeks?

Zac: Week 17 @ Chargers — Two words: Justin Herbert.

Now I know the Broncos absolutely neutralized Herbert and the Chargers’ offense in the teams first meeting—holding Los Angeles to only seven points in until the final five minutes of the game—but just because Vic Fangio’s defense did it once doesn’t mean it will be easy to do again.

If Denver’s defense can torment Herbert the way they did in Week 13—holding him to two touchdowns, two interceptions and an 80 passer rating—the Broncos will sweep the Chargers on the season.

But since that Week 13 game, Herbert has really caught fire.

In fact, since that Week 13 game, Los Angeles has caught fire, dropping 41, 37 and 28 points in their previous three games. In those games, Herbert has thrown eight touchdowns to only two interception, he has a completion percentage of 68 and a passer rating above 109. In Week 14 and Week 15, Herbert was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Week.

Joe Burrow and Derek Carr are really good quarterbacks. But they aren’t in the same tier as Herbert, who is knocking on the door of the elite group. Additionally, the Bengals and Raiders are trending in the wrong direction—Cincinnati is 2-4 in their last six games and Las Vegas is 1-5 in that same stretch—while the Chargers are gaining steam down the stretch.

If they Broncos are able to contain Herbert for a second time this season, they should be able to do the same against Burrow and Carr and come away with three more victories on their playoff push.

Mase: Week 15 vs. Bengals — It’s not that facing Herbert isn’t a challenge. But Vic Fangio’s defense has had success against the Chargers’ young gunslinger. Herbert has five games with at least two interceptions thrown in his career; 40 percent of them (two) are against the Broncos.

There isn’t the same track record against Joe Burrow. Now, this doesn’t mean the Broncos can’t contain Cincinnati’s emerging second-year quarterback. But the challenge is different because the Bengals are more than willing to lean on running back Joe Mixon, who ranks second in the NFL with 1,036 rushing yards through 14 weeks of the season.

The Bengals’ success is largely tied to Mixon’s efficiency; they’re 0-5 when he fails to average at least 4.0 yards per attempt, compared with 7-1 when he hits that benchmark.

Denver’s challenge is heightened Sunday due to the likely absences of inside linebacker Kenny Young (concussion) and defensive end Dre’Mont Jones (foot). Neither of them practiced all week. The Broncos are also still awaiting the return of outside linebacker Malik Reed from the COVID-19 reserve list; because he was symptomatic, his status is still unclear for this game.

If the Broncos get the “Bad Bengals,” they’ll be in good shape. But if they get the good version of the Queen City’s beloved football team, they’ll face a task tougher than working their gastrointestinal system past three bowls of five-way chili.

RK: This week against the Bengals — For all intents and purposes, the Broncos are playing in a playoff game this week. If they win, they have a very legitimate chance to make the playoffs. In fact, if they combine a win with a win for the Patriots or Raiders, they will be in a playoff spot come week’s end.

But the reason it’s the toughest game remaining on the schedule is based on the Broncos’ inability to win big games this season.

Week 4 against the Ravens, they had a chance to prove that their first three wins weren’t flukes, they laid an egg.

Week 13 against the Chiefs, they had a chance to take over first place in the division, they laid an egg.

This team has yet to prove to themselves that they can perform when the stakes get higher and that’s what makes this game so difficult. If they win, they’ll have summited that mountain and the confidence they’ll derive from it will carry them throughout the rest of the season. If they lose, well, the season is basically over, so they won’t have any more high leverage games to worry about.

Picks Picks Picks

Pick one anytime touchdown scorer: Joe Mixon (-115), Ja’Marr Chase (+115), Melvin Gordon (+150), Javonte Williams (+165), Tee Higgins (+165), Tyler Boyd (+230), Jerry Jeudy (+250),  Courtland Sutton (+275), Tim Patrick (+290), Kendall Hinton (+1100)

Zac: Melvin Gordon.

Mase: Gordon.

RK: Javonte.

Teddy Bridgewater passing yards over/under 233.5

Zac: Under.

Mase: Under.

RK: Over.

Joe Burrow passing yards over/under 259.5

Zac: Under.

Mase: Under.

RK: Under.

Joe Mixon rushing yards over/under 68.5

Zac: Over. Unfortunately, easily.

Mase: Over.

RK: Under.

Jerry Jeudy receiving yards over/under 53.5

Zac: Under.

Mase: Over.

RK: Over.

Courtland Sutton receiving yards over/under 30.5

Zac: Under. I won’t get fooled again.

Mase: Over.

RK: Over.

Noah Fant receiving yards over/under 34.5

Zac: Over.

Mase: Over.

RK: Over.

Tim Patrick receiving yards over/under 38.5

Zac: Under.

Mase: Over.

RK: Under.

Ja’Marr Chase receiving yards over/under 63.5

Zac: Under.

Mase: Under.

RK: Over.

C.J. Uzomah receiving yards over/under 28.5

Zac: Over.

Mase: Over.

RK: Over.

Melvin Gordon + Joe Mixon combined touchdowns over/under 1.5

Zac: Over. Easiest bet on here.

Mase: Over.

RK: Over.

Broncos total points over/under 23.5

Zac: Over.

Mase: Under.

RK: Under.

Bengals total points over/under 20.5

Zac: Under. Barely.

Mase: Under.

RK: Under.

Broncos-Bengals over/under 44.5

Zac: Under. Slightly.

Mase: Under.

RK: Under.

Bengals @ Broncos (-3)

Zac: Broncos.

Mase: Broncos.

RK: Broncos.

Leaderboard

Last week

Mase: 10-8

RK: 9-9

Zac: 6-12

Overall

RK: 98-112

Zac: 96-114

Mase: 94-116