Broncos Pick 'Em: What has been the biggest surprise through five weeks?

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — The Broncos’ perfect 3-0 start is quickly fading in the distance after dropping their previous two games.

But they can instantly shift the momentum in their favor this weekend by beating the Las Vegas Raiders at home. The 3-2 Raiders are in the exact same situation as the Broncos as their 3-0 start quickly vanished over the past two weeks.

Will Denver be able to get the much-needed win and keep their season on track? How will the historic rivalry game play out?

The DNVR Crew breaks it down in the sixth installment of Broncos Pick ‘Em.

All odds below are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

What has been the biggest surprise through five weeks?

Zac: Denver’s disappointing pass defense — Statistically, the Broncos’ defense is great against the pass. Through five weeks, they’re giving up the sixth-fewest passing yards per game (207), opposing quarterbacks have the third-worst passer rating (75.8) and they lead the league in opposing quarterback’s completion percentage (55.1).

However, remove the two games in which the Broncos played, and dominated, rookie quarterbacks, and the story is significantly different.

Against Daniel Jones, Lamar Jackson and Ben Roethlisberger, Denver’s pass defense has been significantly underwhelming. The Broncos are giving up an average of 279 passing yards per game and allowing those three QBs to complete 59.6 percent of their passes. Additionally, they have allowed four passing touchdowns and haven’t had a single interception. While the completion percentage is still in the top 10, their yards allowed per game is in the bottom 10.

Unfortunately for the Broncos, they won’t face another rookie quarterback this year. If this trend continues, the season-long stats won’t be nearly as favorable at the end of the year.

This, of course, is a massive disappointment since the Broncos have the highest-paid secondary in the NFL along with Von Miller, Bradley Chubb, Dre’Mont Jones and Shelby Harris rushing the passer.

Denver has been hurt with injuries to Chubb and Ronald Darby, however, the pass rush has been inconsistent and the secondary has been beat numerous times, specifically the last two weeks.

The Broncos’ biggest strength is supposed to be their dominant pass defense. So far, it hasn’t lived up to the high expectations.

Mase: The rush-and-cover combination has lost its punch at times — The Broncos invested a lot of money to make sure they had the kind of symbiosis between the pass rush and their secondary that would make the team difficult on which to pass. They got the results they wanted in the first three games. Against better opposition, that changed in the last two.

Among many points of frustration in last week’s 27-19 loss at Pittsburgh, one that is of particular consternation is the fact that Denver hit Ben Roethlisberger just twice, sacking him once on Malik Reed’s first-quarter strip-sack fumble. He’d been hit 6.5 times per game prior to last week. With Roethlisberger losing the last of his mobility and the Steelers’ offensive line struggling, that seemed like a chance for the pass rush to find its form, but it faltered.

Last year, the Broncos averaged just over one sack per game from their defensive linemen — 16.5 sacks in 16 games. This year, their defensive line has just 1.5 sacks, putting it on a collective 5-sack pace. This must improve.

That being said, the Broncos’ season-long sack rate of one every 14.9 pass plays and their hurry rate of one every 7.5 pass plays are in the same range as their rates last year: one sack every 14.5 pass plays and one hurry every 8.3 pass plays.

On the back end, Kyle Fuller has allowed opposing quarterbacks to post a 119.7 passer rating when targeting him, according to data from Sports Info Solutions, and has allowed 10.2 yards every time he’s been targeted. While Pat Surtain II is off to a promising start as a rookie and Bryce Callahan has been exemplary, opponents learned they could pick on Fuller. The expected return of Ronald Darby should help.

RK: Denver’s lack of a dominant defense in general — There really aren’t any excuses as to why this Broncos defense isn’t better. Supposed “defensive guru” Vic Fangio has just about all you could ask for as a defensive mind and yet has simply not put together a defense that puts fear into its opponents.

Denver’s zone coverage has allowed both Lamar Jackson and Ben Roethlisberger to pick them apart, leaving us to wonder why the Broncos made such a serious investment in their secondary.

As for the pass rush, all but Von Miller have disappointed thus far.

It’s time for Fangio to pull this unit together, or unfortunately it’s going to be his job.

Picks Picks Picks

Teddy Bridgwater passing + rushing yards over/under 257.5

Zac: Under.

Mase: Under.

RK: Over. Let Teddy cook.

Derek Carr passing yards over/under 264.5

Zac: Under.

Mase: Over.

RK: Over.

Will Teddy Bridgewater or Derek Carr have more interceptions? (Tie is a push)

Zac: Mr. Carr.

Mase: Push.

RK: Carr.

Melvin Gordon rushing yards over/under 46.5

Zac: Over.

Mase: Over.

RK: Under.

Josh Jacobs rushing yards over/under 52.5

Zac: Over.

Mase: Under.

RK: Under.

Will Melvin Gordon or Javonte Williams have more receiving + rushing yards?

Zac: Melvin Gordon.

Mase: Gordon.

RK: Williams.

Courtland Sutton receiving yards over/under 62.5

Zac: Under.

Mase: Over.

RK: Over.

Tim Patrick receiving yards over/under 50.5

Zac: Over.

Mase: Over.

RK: Over.

Darren Waller receiving yards over/under 58.5

Zac: Over.

Mase: Over.

RK: Way the hell over.

Henry Ruggs III receiving yards over/under 45.5

Zac: Over.

Mase: Over.

RK: Under.

Noah Fant receptions over/under 4.5

Zac: Over.

Mase: Over.

RK: Under.

Justin Simmons total tackles (single + assisted) over/under 5.5

Zac: Over.

Mase: Over.

RK: Over.

Raiders first-half point total over/under 9.5

Zac: Over.

Mase: Over.

RK: Under.

Broncos total points over/under 23.5

Zac: Over.

Mase: Over.

RK: Under.

Broncos-Raiders over/under 44

Zac: Over. Big time.

Mase: Under.

RK: Under.

Raiders @ Broncos (-3.5)

Zac: ? Broncos ?.

Mase: Broncos.

RK: Broncos.

Chiefs (-6.5) @ Washington Football Team

Zac: Chiefs.

Mase: Chiefs.

RK: Chiefs.

Chargers @ Ravens (-2.5)

Zac: Chargers ⚡️.

Mase: Ravens

RK: Ravens.

Leaderboard

Last week

RK: 6-8

Mase: 5-9

Zac: 4-10

Overall

Zac: 27-34

Mase: 25-36

RK: 24-37