Broncos Pick ‘Em: How have expectations changed for the Broncos this season after their Week 1 loss?

The 2023 Broncos season started the exact same way the 2022 season started.

Both Week 1 games ended with a 17-16 loss for Denver.

Under Sean Payton, instead of Nathaniel Hackett, will the team turn things around? Or do season expectations change after losing at home to the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1?

The DNVR Broncos Crew breaks it down.

All odds below are courtesy of bet365.

How have expectations changed for the Broncos after the Week 1 loss?

Zac: Slightly — Losing to the Raiders is always rough. Losing at home to the Raiders is a tough pill to swallow. Losing the most winnable division game of the season in Week 1 is easy to get carried away with and think the team stinks.

But taking a step back, there was significant progress from the Broncos’ offense, and most importantly Russell Wilson, in Week 1. While the 16 points don’t show it, the offense looked better in all phases except explosive plays. Wilson looked as comfortable as a quarterback as he has looked in years. Those are reasons to be encouraged by the team.

However, it’s clear that Sean Payton needs time to make the Broncos winners again. The million dollar question is how much time?

Unfortunately for Denver, the beginning of the season was, on paper, one of the easiest parts of their schedule. If they drop multiple games early on that they should have won, that will really hurt their chances at making the playoffs or competing for a winning record.

If Denver can beat the Commanders, Dolphins and Bears, or at minimum win two of those games, they will significantly reduce the impact of Week 1’s loss. However, if they can’t, then this season will be a bigger rebuild than Payton was expecting.

Even if the Broncos don’t make the playoffs this year, or fall short of a winning record, I can still see them winning a few games they shouldn’t—potentially beating the Chiefs or Bills—since I truly do think they are improving from last year. At the same time, they’ll still likely lose another game or two they should win.

The entire book on the 2023 Broncos is far from written. But the first chapter was disappointing, to say the least.

RK: Slightly — It’s hard to not overreact to a Week 1 loss, especially when you only score the dreaded 16 points, but I’m trying my best.

Here’s what I’m holding onto: Russell Wilson looked exponentially more comfortable in Sean Payton’s offense than he did in Nathaniel Hackett’s. Despite the grotesque final output, Denver actually tallied 2.7 points per possession in the contest, which is an elite clip. The flow of the game only allowed them six possessions, though, hence the final score.

All of that being said, we had Week 1 at home pinned as a win, so we do have to adjust a bit.

Hank: A significant change — With Sean Payton leading the charge, the Broncos were expected to look different, especially on offense. In Week 1, they looked very similar to the 2022 Broncos.

Denver lost a 17-16 game, just like they did in Week 1 of last season. They matched fell slightly short of their average points per game from a year ago. They threw for less than 200 yards. They felt like the same team.

A couple of numbers point toward a more efficient offense, despite the same result. The Broncos ranked third in the league in yards per drive in Week 1 and fifth in points per drive. But it’s worth remembering that the Raiders helped the Broncos out; Las Vegas committed five penalties on third and fourth downs that gave the Broncos a first down.

The sky isn’t falling for the Broncos. They’ve only played one of they 17 games. But I expected the Broncos to grind their way into the final Wild Card spot in the AFC, but now they’re facing an uphill battle. After Week 1, I think winning seven or eight games is much more likely than earning a playoff spot.

Who knows, maybe they’ll drop 30 points on the Commanders on Sunday and look like the playoff team I expected.

Picks Picks Picks

Russell Wilson passing yards over/under 225.5

Zac: Over.

RK: Under.

Hank: Under.

Russell Wilson passing touchdowns over/under 1.5

Zac: Over.

RK: Over.

Hank: Over.

Sam Howell passing yards over/under 199.5

Zac: Over.

RK: Under.

Hank: Under.

Courtland Sutton receiving yards over/under 52.5

Zac: Over.

RK: Under.

Hank: Over.

Terry McLaurin receiving yards over/under 47.5

Zac: Over.

RK: Over.

Hank: Under.

Javonte Williams rushing yards over/under 45.5

Zac: Under.

RK: Over.

Hank: Over.

Brian Robinson Jr. rushing yards over/under 45.5

Zac: Over.

RK: Under.

Hank: Under.

Russell Wilson rushing yards over/under 12.5

Zac: Over.

RK: Over.

Hank: Under.

Wil Lutz total points over/under 6.5

Zac: Over.

RK: Over.

Hank: Under.

Broncos-Commanders total points over/under 39

Zac: Under.

RK: Under.

Hank: Under.

Commanders @ Broncos (-3.5)

Zac: Broncos.

RK: Commanders cover, Broncos win.

Hank: Commanders

Chargers (-3) @ Titans

Zac: Chargers.

RK: Titans.

Hank: Titans.

Chiefs (-3) @ Jaguars

Zac: Chiefs.

RK: Jags.

Hank: Jaguars.

Raiders @ Bills (-8.5)

Zac: Bills.

RK: Raiders.

Hank: Raiders.

Leaderboard

Last week

RK: 8-2

Hank: 5-5

Zac: 1-9

Overall

RK: 8-2

Hank: 5-5

Zac: 1-9