Broncos Film Room: What’s changed in Case Keenum the last three weeks

In the aftermath of the toughest loss of 2018, little was made of Case Keenum finally playing a turnover-free game while leading his team on a potential game-winning drive against the Houston Texans in Week 9.

Fast-forward two games later, and the Denver Broncos quarterback has prolonged that trend, which has played a big part in the team’s two consecutive wins.

Not only has Keenum avoided turnovers in November, but he’s also eliminated errant throws that could’ve been intercepted, something he did plenty of in his first eight appearances as a Bronco.

Not too long ago we were wondering what had happened to the version of Keenum we saw in 2017 with the Minnesota Vikings, asking where his red zone efficiency and third-down prowess had gone.

In this three-game stretch of turnover-free ball, Keenum hasn’t necessarily been his Minnesota self, but he’s navigated a tougher situation and put up similar numbers—230 yards per game and an average QBR of 89.5 in the three-game stretch compared to 236 yards and 98.3 back in 2017.

It hasn’t always looked pretty for all four quarters and he isn’t getting much credit for his uptick in play, but Keenum’s improved play has made a huge difference for the Broncos to climb their way back into the AFC playoff hunt.

Which is why we went back to the tape to see what’s changed under-center recently and how it’s directly correlated to the Broncos success. 

Accuracy on the run

Whether by design, with more bootlegs, or Keenum’s own doing by alluding pressure, No. 4’s strength throwing on the run has started to show in the last three games, and it’s allowed him to elevate his play significantly.

His accuracy on the run and poise under duress were big selling points for the Texas native when he was signed in the offseason, and while it’s taken a while to showcase his skills, Keenum seems to finally be getting comfortable in uncomfortable situations.

This 4th-and-1 against Houston is a perfect example; rolling to his left—an especially hard thing to do for a righty—and delivering a timely ball with nice placement. 

This throw also highlights No. 4’s skill in throwing from different arm angles, flipping his hips and zipping the ball out quickly to buy himself, and his receiver, just enough time to convert a crucial down. Keenum has started to complete more throws without his feet set from awkward platforms, all small but important areas of improvement that have made him harder to defend, and more dangerous on the run.

Keenum hasn’t just been more accurate on throws on the move, he’s been much better in keeping his wits about him with oncoming pressure bearing down. This is a big reason why he’s been sacked at a much lower rate in the last three games compared to the first eight—2.75 times per game to only 1.3.

That’s led to him not just evading sacks but also completing more passes when escaping pressure, throwing darts on the move and stepping into throws. There’s also been an increased chemistry with his receivers, which has allowed the QB to start finding his wideouts consistently on scramble drills. 

As evidenced by the two dimes above, the veteran QB had his best game throwing on the run this past week against the Pittsburgh Steelers, showing the best ball placement towards the sideline that we’ve seen all year, and some impressive velocity on his throws, too.

This has been a huge part of his success, as he’s elevated the play of his offensive line and allowed his receivers, who are struggling to create separation off the line, to get open as the play is extended.

Keenum’s always been at his best on the move, and lately, he’s started to really show it in Orange & Blue.

Discipline in the red zone

Keenum’s taken fewer risks and been more patient picking his spots, knowing when to pounce. That’s been especially true in the red zone where the undrafted QB has gone from completing 37 percent of his throws to 70.

Beyond being accurate within 20-yards, Keenum’s flipped his 3-to-3 touchdown to interception ratio, throwing three TDs to zero picks in the red zone in his last three outings.

Early on in 2018, interceptions were dooming No. 4 in the red area, as he was forcing throws into double coverage. He’s settled in now, seeing the field better, picking his matchups, and zipping passes into the teeth of the defense.

His ball placement in more condensed areas of the field has undoubtedly been better too, which has been especially true on his two touchdowns to tight ends in this stretch.

Previously in 2018, Keenum was rushing throws into double coverage and his accuracy suffered, now he’s placing the ball where only his guys can haul it in, and it’s made a huge difference. 

His aforementioned ability to pass it on the run has also come in handy. As exemplified by this beautiful touchdown throw to Emmanuel Sanders against the Steelers, where he quickly flipped his hips, threw across his body, and zipped it into No. 10’s chest.

Decisive downfield

One area in which Denver’s QB has been better than he was in 2017, has been on deep throws, especially completions of 20 and 40 yards or more.

As of this writing, Keenum is fourth in the NFL in completions of 40 yards or more (10) and seventh in throws of 20 yards or more (41). By comparison, in 2017 he was 12th in throws of 20-plus yards and 14th over 40.

In this most recent three-game stretch, Keenum’s been astute in taking what the defense has given him, which has led his yard per attempt average to drop—from 7.3 in the first eight games to 6.7.

However, when Case has been forced to push the ball downfield, he’s been more decisive, he’s seeing the field better and stepping into the pocket with confidence, delivering accurate throws with on-point ball placement.

There’s no such thing as being perfect in low-percentage shots downfield, but Keenum’s been solid in this area all year and better in the intermediate game as well.

His velocity over the middle of the field and to the sideline, while still not elite, has been much better too. 

This has allowed Keenum to outperform his third-and-long production from 2017, where he’s converting 30.8 percent of his throws—10th best in the NFL—compared to 20 percent a year ago.

That, as much as anything we’ve talked about, has made Keenum more dangerous in winning situations, especially of late where he’s converted 38 percent of his third-and-long attempts for first downs in November.

At his best with the game on the line

Coming from a spread high-tempo attack in Houston, edging his name all over the NCAA passing records, Keenum’s right at home in two-minute drills, where he’s played really well in spread formations out of the gun.

This is the one area where Keenum’s let it rip, still playing it safe, but showing a fearlessness with the game on the line. Much like on this ridiculous 4th-and-8 play against the Texans. 

Keenum’s played with determination, staring down pressure and proving he has the arm talent to zip passes into tight windows when needed. It’s no coincidence that he led the offense on consecutive drives to set Denver up for winning field goals against the Texans and Chargers.

Keenum’s converted 6-of-9 fourth-down attempts on the year too, proving that when he’s been asked to shoulder the load, with the game in the balance, he can deliver.

In conclusion

Keenum doesn’t have the duo of receivers he had in Minnesota, nor the receiving ability at tight end that he had with Kyle Rudolph—some could even argue he’s missing a creative play caller like Pat Shurmur—all things he had in 2017.

It hasn’t looked as spectacular but Keenum’s found ways to win with clutch throws on the run and downfield, efficient play in the red zone, and just enough skill on third down and in two-minute drills to put the Broncos in positions to win.

He hasn’t been exactly who he was in his break out year with the Vikings, though, in many ways, he’s been even better while given a heavier load to carry.

Keenum is still far from elite and won’t make many plays above the X’s and O’s, but he’s become a reliable thrower behind center and one of the more stable performers on offense. 

As much as anyone, this final stretch of the regular season is big for Keenum in proving last year wasn’t a fluke. If he can stay the course in these final five games, the narrative on his signing might be looked at in a much more positive light than it was just a few weeks ago.