Broncos Film Room: What the tape says about Drew Lock’s hot start to his NFL career

In what felt like a lost season, the emergence of Drew Lock has been the unanimous focus of all who watch the Denver Broncos for the remainder of 2019.

Despite all those eyes on Lock and a  productive 2-0 start to his career, there are still skeptics out there. Meaning there was no better time to go back and see if the eye test can bring a bit more clarity to how Denver’s star-rookie QB is striving and how replicable his early success is going forward. 

But before getting into all that, first, we’re going to take a look at the one trait that has defined Lock. A trait that has been both a blessing and a curse throughout his football journey.

Awkward platforms

It goes all the way back to his college days, what defines Drew Lock is his ability to throw off of non-repeatable awkward footing, and through eight quarters of NFL football, the rookie QB has been otherworldly on such passes.

From throwing on the move or with pressure in his face, Lock’s mostly shown pinpoint accuracy to all areas of the field. What’s most impressive, though, is how he’s consistently been able to push the ball vertically despite not having time or room to step into throws. 

Not to mention, he’s also shown incredible toughness, waiting until the very last minute to release the ball, and awareness, reading on-coming pressure while staying supremely cool and keeping his eyes downfield. 

This pass below is the best example of all, as Lock barely plants his back foot and has a millisecond to transfer his weight forward and let fly. Despite not having his weight under him and getting hit right as he releases the ball, No. 3 was able to drop the ball in the bucket for 37-yards in double coverage, on 3rd-and-9 none the less.

Throws like these are the NFL equivalent of pulling a rabbit out of a hat. It’s a cheat code, a trump card, call it what you will. Throws like these show how strong and accurate Lock’s arm can be without engaging his lower half. The kind of plays that only a rare few in the league can make with any regularity. 

That raw talent has always been there for Lock, a big reason why the scouting world has been watching him since his 44-touchdown junior campaign.

At the same time, these types of throws are why the Broncos second-round pick dropped in the draft and was seen as a boom-or-bust prospect.

His interception against the Texans is a perfect example of why his ability to make incredible throws off his back foot can also be a curse. 

Here you can see what Lock’s looking at. It’s the same single-high safety coverage he had on the Sutton touchdown against the Chargers or his dime deep to Patrick in Houston.

It’s an aggressive decision but not a terrible one; the real problem is that the Missouri man stared down his target and allowed the safety to read his eyes and immediately close on the ball.

This angle is even more telling, as you can see Lock’s footwork. Just like on the spectacular throws above, his weight is backloaded, he’s holding tough until the very last moment when he knows he’s going to get hit before he releases the ball.

This is a perfect example of why, while it’s a great indicator of his arm talent, no quarterback can solely rely on these types of deep shots without accuracy and ball placement suffering.

Here’s Lock on the move fading back against the Chargers and missing his target by a mile.

While it might seem crazy to say a quarterback who’s completing 72 percent of his passes can be more accurate, with refined footwork, Lock could be surgical with his natural-arm talent.

Having the ability to pull special plays out his back pocket is a great weapon to have in case of emergency but, as he progresses, Lock will have to be more selective, knowing when to trust his arm and when to simply live to see another day.

More encouraging signs

Statistically, Lock’s performance against the Texans was spectacular, one of the best games an NFL quarterback has played all year by most metrics. Nothing was more impressive than how the rookie handled himself on third down, especially 3rd-and-long and 3rd-and-medium—key downs for a QB, as everyone in the stadium knows they’re about to pass the ball.

In just two weeks, Lock has completed 15-of-18 third-down attempts, throwing four touchdowns and posting a quarterback rating of 148.4. More impressive, he’s converted 11-of-18, a 61-percent clip which would lead the NFL by a wide margin—the only QB in the league converting above 50 percent is Jimmy Garoppolo at 52 percent. The Broncos other two quarterbacks, Joe Flacco and Brandon Allen, were converting 31-percent this season. Those numbers are no fluke.

Lock has done his best work on key downs, and it’s in large part due to his ability to pull off accurate throws while under duress.

Speaking of which, his ability to scramble, make throws with pressure in his face and even take off and run when the pocket breaks down, have made a huge difference for the Broncos offense.

Lock’s ability to avoid sacks has been incredible in an offense with a line that’s struggled to pass protect all season. His growth in this area has been noticeable as this was one of the biggest knocks on him coming into the league.

His pocket presence and ability to navigate the pocket have stood out.

Being able to make plays with his feet and take off to run has made everything easier too — a stark difference from the less athletic Flacco and Allen.

While it’s been a mixed bag at times, Lock’s done a nice job of throwing on the run and improvising plays, subtly buying time and getting the ball out from awkward arm angles. 

When he’s accurate on the move—and he has been more so on designed play-action bootlegs—No. 3 is tough to stop.

Not only has Lock’s lower half—ability to throw off awkward platforms, on the run, and scramble—defined him, his arm talent has been obvious too, with the zip to squeeze balls into the tightest of NFL windows.

The ability to get the ball out with power and a quick release is just another factor that’s made Lock’s debut so successful.

Throws like this confirm all the upside that scouts saw in the SEC’s second all-time passing leader while at the same time demonstrating how much his pocket presence and ball placement have improved in a short span.

It’s still early, but the eye test would suggest that Lock’s early success is no fluke, the tools are special, and he’s found success rapidly in his pro career, a key in a league that’s not known for its patience.

Work in process

Now, the fun part is that despite his early success, it’s still clear that Lock has so much he can still work on, maybe the most exciting prospect of all when you consider how high his ceiling could be.

Beyond polishing his footwork, the rook needs to keep working on looking off safeties, and getting the ball out quicker.

There have been times the last two weeks where he’s holding onto the ball longer than he needs to, an understandable part of adapting to his receivers after spending time on the IR and not being able to practice.

As defenses will begin to mix up coverages, the youngster will have to avoid staring down his targets and forcing throws in tight windows. His one pick against the Chargers was a great example of how much confidence Lock has, trying to fit a pass into a crowd and not seeing the underneath defender.

It all comes down to decision making, knowing when to trust his arm and when to take what the defense gives him.

If there’s been a knock on his game from his time in college that’s carried over, it’s been that Lock, at times, throw with too much power and zip when a little more touch could do the trick. As he shores up his lower-body mechanics and throws with more touch, his accuracy will progress by leaps and bounds.

It’s worth noting how Rich Scangarello and the offensive staff have adapted to Lock, featuring more RPOs, and spread looks out of pistol and shotgun. Continuing to progress under center and in more pro-style schemes will unlock another level to his development.

What it all means

With refined, more consistent footwork, the sky is the limit for Lock.

He’s already done enough to make opposing defensive coordinators think twice when employing a single-high safety. That, in turn, makes the decision of putting a safety in the box much harder than it has been in recent years against the Broncos. Once that happens, as we saw in Houston, room opens up underneath, and moving the sticks becomes much easier.

As defenses start to mix and disguise coverages, Lock will have to adapt quickly, staying cool under pressure and methodical in picking his spots to attack downfield.

Few things in sports are harder than playing quarterback in the NFL, and Lock has aced the QB 101 phase of his pro-development, dominating almost solely on arm talent and a veteran’s cool under duress.  

More telling is how he’s made his teammates better and already forced opponents to adjust.

Having played this well early in his career isn’t necessarily an indicator of future success, but it’s definitely an encouraging start. He’s passed the eye-test with flying colors.

If Lock has already passed his QB 101 class, how he does in upper-level courses will tell us if it’s truly time to anoint him the long-term savior.

It might still be too early, but Sunday in Kansas City is the first of those upper-level classes, you best believe the hometown kid is ready to take it on.