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Trevor Siemian has blossomed in front of our eyes in the early part of the 2017 NFL season with two fine performances to start the year. Throughout his time as a starter with the Denver Broncos, we’ve followed Siemian’s progress, his ups, and downs as he figured life out as an NFL signal-caller.
While we’ve never made any judgment calls, the tape showed his potential, but this start has been at another level, raising his game to yet another plateau that many thought was not possible.
With that, we went back to the tape, as we always do, to see what’s changed in Trevor this year. What’s truly different that’s allowed him to perform, while also trying to see where his game can still improve.
Balling out on third down
If there’s one area in which a quarterback is supposed to make a difference, it’s on third down. The Denver Broncos are now leading the NFL in efficiency on the money down, completing 56-percent of their opportunities. While reviewing the tape, it was easy to see why, as Siemian is making quick decisions and has made the majority of his standout throws on third down.
Of course, he’s also benefited from the scheme that’s allowing him to make these quick reads and even half field reads in stacked formations with multiple receivers to one side.
What’s really stood out in his third-down play is Siemian’s confidence and willingness to attack, a massive difference from a season ago. He’s simply looked decisive, finding mismatches and taking advantage of them with no fear. If he sees Demaryius Thomas in one on one, he’ll throw it his way, letting his big guy make a play. If he sees Bennie Fowler on a linebacker in the slot, he’s zinging it to Bennie and trusting his man. These aren’t things we saw a year ago, and they’ve made all the difference in his second season.
Mike McCoy’s scheme has also afforded Trevor more opportunities to operate out of shotgun where he’s been very accurate and is reading the field quite well.
Third down hasn’t been the only area where Siemian’s upgraded his play, as he’s also been fantastic in the red zone where he’s come up clutch several times in the first two games. The Broncos are fourth in the league in red zone scoring efficiency after two games at 77 percent.
His efficiency has really stood out, and the two touchdowns he threw against the Dallas Cowboys are perfect examples. The first one is a beautiful touch pass put exactly in the right place and delivered before any Cowboys defenders can react. Siemian’s second pass is reminiscent of one he threw against the Cincinnati Bengals in 2016, rolling to his right and throwing an accurate strike on the run where only his receiver could make a play.
The offensive design on these red-zone plays has been supreme as well (credit where credit’s due) helping Siemian greatly, but for an offense that he’s only been in for a brief time, he’s executing things to perfection.
This is also where No. 13’s been able to show off his mobility, breaking defenders down on the run to pick up crucial third downs and even big-time scores. While he’s always had this skill, he’s used it more as a weapon this season than in his first year, knowing when to pick his spots, and it’s really paid off.
There’s no other way to put it; when it matters most, Siemian has come up with timely plays to prolong drives or put points on the board. In this, he’s seemed like a different quarterback entirely, and if he can keep it up, the sky’s the limit for his success.
Consistently accurate to all levels
While Siemian has had a reputation as a game manager and a check-down thrower, he had issues last season with accuracy. His ball placement on short to intermediate throws was inconsistent in the past.
That hasn’t been the case in this early part of the season, and that’s maybe where he’s been able to excel the most.
In the entire game Sunday against the Cowboys, he only missed one throw with truly bad accuracy, a third-down toss where he threw behind Bennie Fowler. That aside, he’s rarely missed, and most of the time he’s been on the money. The important thing is, aside from that one throw, no other pass was put in a spot where the defender had a better chance of getting the ball than the Denver receiver. You couldn’t have said that a year ago, where he was more mistake-prone.
Siemian’s been a machine lately, throwing with zip or touch depending on what the situation calls for and all with great accuracy. His touchdown to Sanders against the Cowboys is a super example of that.
Trevor’s accuracy’s really allowed him to make tight window throws he wasn’t making consistently a year ago. This is especially true over the seam to his tight ends where he’s been marvelous. He seems to be throwing his guys open instead of waiting for them to come open this year which is allowing him to be more surgical in small windows.
The receivers and their quarterback have just looked like they’re on the same page—aside from the Cowboys interception where he and Thomas had a misunderstanding—which has taken this offense to a whole new level.
Don’t underrate Siemian’s footwork, which has always been advanced for a young quarterback, allowing him to show great poise in the pocket and good lower-body mechanics to make powerful throws. His footwork navigating the pocket also allows him to buy more time which can be key, and he’s also shown guts and accuracy to make tough throws with pressure in his face.
As mentioned above, he seems to be benefiting from more shotgun looks, but his accuracy’s been great on play action opportunities also, where now Denver’s having significantly more success thanks to a run game that’s been excellent.
Don’t underrate the IQ
While he’s been efficient and accurate when it’s mattered most, what’s really stood out has been Siemian’s IQ as a quarterback.
Obviously, his processing speed plays into this but so does his ability to adjust to a new offense in such a short time, looking like a seasoned vet.
Against the Chargers in Week 1, it looked like the Northwestern product was mostly working off of his first and second reads. But by Week 2 he already seemed to be going through his progressions making whole-field reads and knowing when to pull the trigger quickly or when to take his check down. He just hasn’t seemed rushed in his decision making like he was a year ago.
In just one week, he’s already showing improvement and looks like he’s doing a better job of manipulating defenses with his eyes. Something he did to perfection on this pump-fake to DT.
In general, the number of mistakes has been significantly decreased already and as he becomes sharper in this scheme and cleans up the few mistakes he has made there’s really no limit to what he could do in this offense.
Learning to pick his spots
Siemian’s made a huge jump especially in the types of mistakes he makes. A year ago, he probably could have thrown for more than the 10 interceptions he threw; this year, those mistakes have largely been eliminated.
Trevor does need to learn when to take a sack, when to get rid of the ball, and when to try to make a play. He’s been great scrambling, but he also needs to be aware of not trying to do too much. This comes with experience, and for a third-year player and second-year starter, they’re pretty forgivable mistakes. However, there have been instances in the first two games where he’s seen the pressure but tried to run instead of throwing the ball away thus leading to sacks he couldn’t escape.
Another slight area in which he can do more is on deep passes, where he’s attempting some to keep defenses honest but has missed a few opportunities on close calls. It’s important he sticks with it and keeps on hucking it downfield as the completions will come. In his first season, the games in which he had the most success were the ones in which he did make deep completions, the fact that he’s done so well despite not always finding the big throw is very encouraging and is just another area in which he could improve.
This is only the begging for Siemian in this new McCoy offense, but the initial returns are certainly encouraging. With continued improvement and increased familiarity with the offense, there’s really no telling how far No. 13 can take this.