Welcome to our second installment of Paxton Lynch film breakdown.

After having analyzed Paxton’s growth from 2014 to 2015, leading him to be one of the top quarterbacking prospects in all of America, now it’s time to talk about the last four games of his career, the games that took him from the potential No. 1 overall pick to a place where the Super Bowl Champion Denver Broncos could go and get him.

Lynch and Memphis faced their toughest defensive opponents in the last four weeks (with the exception of a record 7 TD’s in the first-half against SMU, that we won’t be analyzing). Memphis was coming off of their first loss (against Navy) and now playing for an AAC title on the line.

The opponents Lynch and the Tigers faced were Houston, Temple, and Auburn in their bowl game. Temple and Houston were both ranked with talented defenses (between the two D’s there were five 2016 draft picks, including first-rounder William Jackson III), Auburn was finishing a tough year but had made strides on defense thanks to coordinator Will Muschamp.These were not easy matchups for a Memphis team that didn’t have the talent or depth to really match up on all levels.

One thing that needs to be understood with the spread offense is that everything is predicated on lateral movement, the o-line moves laterally, there’s always tons of motion spreading a defense laterally and so on. When a defense can match up athletically and cover that lateral field, a spread offense struggles mightily. An athletic defense takes away just about everything you have misdirection-wise which, in turn, allows for all the north-south plays once the defense is spread out. This was a major issue in these three games.

It’s important to put these things in context for Lynch when looking at his performance in these last three big games of the season. It isn’t uncommon to see spread offenses even of greater talent than Memphis’ struggle when matching up with similar speed, think Mariota and Oregon against Ohio State, or Derek Carr in Fresno’s bowl loss to USC. These things happen and it’s important not to overreact but rather understand the circumstances and go from there.

Since part two is most interested in finding out what happened in those games to drop Paxton’s stock, this time, we’ll start with the cons. Some are a smattering of my notes while others are the usual summarized findings.

Scouting Report

Cons

• Against Houston, Lynch tried to zing in a short yardage pass. He doesn’t read the underneath interior linebacker (Patriots pick Elandon Roberts), who makes a great play and intercepts. Seemed to rush the pass, seemed too eager to make up for teammates fumble on the previous drive. 
• Against Auburn Paxton threw behind his receiver, who was very well covered, the pass got deflected by the DB and tipped in the air leading to INT in the end zone.
• As the Auburn game wore on, Lynch’s accuracy really started to suffer. He didn’t always look like he was on the same page with his wideouts (or vice-versa) and struggled to make some of the passes he’s made in other big games. Frustration seemed to affect him, never quite seemed to get in a rhythm (a problem in the Temple game as well). Inaccuracy issues don’t seem mechanical as he’s made tons of throws off of sketchy footing throughout 2015, just seemed rattled and frustrated, leading to rushed throws.
• Pressures and blitzes from the Temple defense took a toll on Lynch and the offense. Tried his best to make plays but simply couldn’t do anything on some occasions and held onto the ball too long at times.
• One throw, in particular, was emblematic of an almost unexplainable inconsistency in accuracy. On a 3rd-and-8, Lynch navigates pocket well gets to the perimeter, has an open man on the sideline for a short and easy completion and skips the pass on the ground. Very odd throw, like a pitcher throwing it in the dirt.
• While Lynch’s footwork looks more balanced his decision making looks a bit sped up in all three games. The speed of defenses did give him trouble, more so than other athletic defenses like Mississippi or Cincinnati did earlier in the season.
• Paxton got a bit caught up in trying to make a play when it wasn’t there. Protection would break down, he avoided some sacks, but a bit hesitant to throw.
• On 2nd-and-8 Houston brings six men with pressure, Lynch doesn’t read or have much urgency and gets sacked for holding onto the ball too long. Just one example, but he does need to get better in reading defenses pre-snap to be more equipped against blitzes.
• With the game on the line against Houston, Lynch overthrows his WR with single coverage to the outside on 3rd-and-5 with four minutes remaining and a seven-point lead. Seemed to be pressing a bit as the game got close and to the end.

Pros:

• Lynch showed maturity and poise in taking what the Temple defense gave him. While it didn’t always look pretty, he completed 73 percent of his passes against a very complex defense that allowed very few deep passes.
• Lynch continued to show a good feel for the pocket. Working through a moving pocket and side stepping pressure.
• Shows really promising footwork on this particular throw. Throws a very accurate deep ball down the sideline (one of the few deep balls Temple allowed) but the ball is dropped. 
• Lynch showed some real improvements with footwork, being able to operate with success from within the pocket against Temple and their complex scheme. Showed real potential.
• Rifled a great pass in between linebacker underneath and DB over the top, showed great touch and made throw outside the pocket on the run. 
• Lynch throws an accurate pass on 3rd-and-2, under-center and on play action. Dump off is covered so he has to make a tough throw on the run in a moving window, makes a very accurate pass for a positive gain.
• In two minute drive throws a couple dimes from within the pocket to keep the game alive and get his team in field goal range. 
• Lynch was under pressure all day in these three games. He showed great ability to shake defenders to buy extra time and avoid negative plays. Also was impressive in bouncing off of first contact in the pocket. Has some Big Ben to his game in that sense.
• On the run, Paxton made some really great plays with his feet despite the added speed of the defenses faced.

Summary

The biggest concern—when it comes down to it—is that Lynch’s accuracy was inconsistent with some odd and errant throws. With more consistent and tighter lower body mechanics that should be easily fixed. It also is a perfect example of how the spread can help a quarterback’s stats but can also limit an offense’s ability to do certain things.

Ultimately, after a cinderella type run in the first nine weeks of 2015, Memphis lost all three big games. Houston was the most heartbreaking, as Memphis blew the lead on two -consecutive turnovers, a fumble from the running back and the Lynch-to-Roberts INT. Lynch got his guys in field goal range but Memphis lost anyways.

Against Temple, Paxton played well from within the pocket, showing some good footwork and poise. Temple was one of the best defenses in the country and really stifled a much more talented Notre Dame offense as well. Memphis could have been much closer had it not been for some key drops from the receiving corps.

The Auburn game was a complete disaster. The speed of Auburn’s front seven eliminated the majority of Memphis’s bread-and-butter plays. The o-line did not handle the pressure well and the Tigers didn’t have a large part of their coaching staff, including their head coach. Not to mention there was awful weather and wind during the game. Need I say more? Sometimes you have bad days, and I think Paxton’s game against Auburn can be ultimately explained that way.

While the inconsistencies worry, there was also some improvements shown from Lynch in those last three big games. How he learns from those tough losses will in large part determine his future success.