There’s been enough talk around town about the Denver Broncos usage of 11 personnel (1RB, 1TE, 3WRs), that it’s even reached the ears of this film-watching hermit. So it was time to investigate, and it turns out there’s been a shift, or rather a gradual transition from less balanced attacks to more three-receiver sets. All coming to an apex in the last three games where that’s been the primary personnel package used in Mike McCoy’s offense.

Now, some of this should be expected, as this is the NFL in 2017, meaning a single back and tight end formation with three wideouts are the go-to for most teams in the league these days. It’s also worth remembering that the Broncos have been trailing in all games for the last month, and thus have been forced to press and pass a lot more then they’d like to.

The two-tight end and max protection jumbo packages we saw featured in the early part of the year have had to be abandoned in large part due to all the injuries the Broncos have suffered at the position. We’ve also seen the role of the fullback decrease significantly as well.

The blowout loss against the New England Patriots last Sunday is a perfect example of this as the Broncos used 11 personnel in 44 snaps, 77-percent of the offensive plays, which seems fairly consistent with what we’ve seen the last two to three games. It’s worth noting that relative to the offensive success the last month,h things worked out fairly well for Denver last Sunday, in these packages.

We charted every play, and of those 44 snaps, the Broncos converted 6-of-7 third downs – including the miraculous 3rd-and-7 completion to Demaryius Thomas off of a tipped ball. They ran it 15 times and passed it 29 and were 14-of-28 on those pass plays (one play was flagged and doesn’t count here). The final tally was one touchdown and one interception.

After breaking all the numbers down, it’s time to get to the film to see what worked and what hasn’t, plus what this all means going forward.

Sanders was back in the slot

If there’s one positive from the 44 plays that the Broncos used on Sunday in 11 personnel, it was Emmanuel Sanders’ play, maybe the only bright spot of the entire game.

Sanders was lined up against cornerback Malcolm Butler and had himself a day, setting the corner up with spectacular fakes and footwork at the top of his stem to create separation. One of the more interesting trends we noticed from No. 10 in 11 personnel was that Sanders returned to be being used in the slot, where he had success. This has been a missing part of the offense that we’ve been wondering about and it was nice to see it return. If nothing else, Sanders in the slot forces defenses to have to switch their corners around and keep safety help on him. With his quickness at the line and crisp route-running ability, he was also lethal in bunch formations to his side. That is, as long as penalties on poorly executed pick plays didn’t occur.

Sanders’ usage and play were by far the most encouraging part of the game and if the Broncos offense is going to crawl their way out of this hole that needs to continue. Thomas also had his moments though he received a heavy amount of attention from the Patriots secondary. He did get his touchdown out of a three-receiver package and had a few other plays put in motion to try on create space for himself.

How’s this impacts the other personnel

Sanders is far from the only offensive player that’s been impacted by more three-wideout formations, and it hasn’t all been good. As two tight end formations have decreased and three wide receiver formations are increasing, the actual players (or personnel) on offense have been impacted all around. Here’s what’s happened.,

The Good

Jeff Heuerman has been featured a lot more, especially in 11 personnel, where he’s often thrown into the slot or isolated outside with trips to the opposite side. He isn’t being targeted much, but he’s certainly upped his playing time and is running a good amount of routes not, just blocking.

He’s appeared in 79 snaps the last three games, a significant increase from earlier in the year where he averaged 17 per game in the first six contests, he’s appeared in 26 plays per game the last three. What’s Heuerman’s appeal you might ask? Partially his size and ability to be a threat in the receiving game and also as a blocker – an area in which we’ve praised him in our grades and film breakdowns earlier in the year, as has PFF where he’s ranked as the 12th best run blocker at the position.

Interestingly enough, even with the increase of three-receiver sets, not all the wideouts on the team have seen their playing time increase. Cody Latimer has, however, as he’s appeared in 134 snaps the last three weeks, seemingly taking over Bennie Fowler’s duties as the primary slot receiver. Actually, Latimer’s also been used a decent amount outside, allowing Sanders to slip inside. In the last two games, he’s had eight targets which is more than the seven he’d seen in all the rest of 2017, and he’s caught five passes for 79-yards.

On this play, the Broncos put Latimer in motion to get an easy completion for Brock Osweiler. This stood out as a creative usage of Latimer while lined up outside. While he’s been a disappointment at this point in his career, Latimer does still have size and straight-line speed, getting the ball in his hands for easy yards after the catch is a great way to get the offense jump-started.

The Bad

As mentioned above, the insistence on using 11 personnel has seen playing time of other offensive playmakers decrease a decent amount, here’s who’s been impacted the most.

Andy Janovich’s snaps have gone from 43 in the first four games to 33 in the last five. The fullback’s impact hasn’t been the same as a blocker, and there have been even fewer designed pass plays for him.

Virgil Green’s snaps have gone down drastically the last several games, as the Broncos aren’t running it with nearly as much success, which has led to Virgil being much more ineffective. Green averaged 42.5 snaps in the first four games, when Denver was one of the best teams at running the rock, with Green proving to bee a huge help due to his blocking ability. Now, in the last five, he’s averaging 29 plays per game. Heuerman’s versatility and size are clearly more appealing in 11 personnel.

The Broncos other tight end, A.J. Derby, keeps being featured more in two tight end sets, where he’ll be used as an H-back or flexed out into the slot. While he’s appeared some as the single tight end in 11 personnel, he’s not nearly the blocker that Green or Heuerman are, meaning he’s a bit of a dead giveaway to the pass.

It feels like ages ago now when Bennie Fowler was scoring touchdowns and making big third-down conversions in 11-personnel sets duing Week 1 against the Los Angeles Chargers. As of late, things have changed drastically, as Fowler’s snaps have decreased significantly the last two games despite both Sanders and Thomas being banged up. Earlier in the year, he was featured in 143 snaps in the first four games before there were any injuries amongst the receiving core’s top two, in the last two games he’s only played in 43 snaps and has been pretty lifeless. That’s a significant decrease for Fowler who’s lost a lot of snaps to Latimer.

What it all means

At the end of the day, it does appear as if the Broncos are becoming too predictable in these formations and that they’re relying on them too much. With Brock Osweiler being thrust in at quarterback after having been out of McCoy’s offense for several years, this makes sense, it’s a way to simplify things, but it’s also not working well enough, and it won’t work nearly as “well” as it did against New England once they face off against better defenses. The Broncos need to get back to more personnel variations and to being more imposing in the ground game. Another idea would be to, maybe, just maybe, adopt some of the formations that have been so successful for other teams in the NFL this year.