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After facing the NFL’s best team in September, it’s time for the Denver Broncos to go head-to-head with the kings of October, the Philadelphia Eagles, the league’s hottest team right now. The 7-and-1 Eagles are powered by a high-octane offense that’s led by Carson Wentz who’s having a breakout year and could be the MVP.
With the Broncos trying to get out of a three-game slump and switching quarterbacks it won’t be an easy test, but there’s a path to victory here. It all comes down to the two quarterbacks Wentz versus Brock Osweiler. It’s a matchup that, on paper, is easily won by Philadelphia. However, with the Broncos superb defense, things can be evened out to make this a game, here are the keys to making that happen.
It all starts with stopping Wentz
Wentz’s natural talents have been on full display this year, showing himself to be a true freak for what he’s able to do at his size. The second-year quarterback has the athleticism to run and make plays with his legs, while also being a fine passer on the move. He also has shown the arm and deep ball accuracy to stretch teams vertically. All of that is tough to defend no matter how good you are.
First things first, the defense will have to pick their poison, and job number one should be taking away the deep ball. Wentz has had a pass over 35 yards in seven of the eight games Philly’s played this year and a pass 50 yards in five games. A better course of action is forcing Wentz into quick decisions in tight windows. Forcing his accuracy and decision making to be on point from start to finish, that’ll be a big test for him and one that many other veteran quarterbacks have failed in the past.
If there’s one slight weakness in Wentz’s game, it’s that he’ll hold onto the ball a beat too long, at times, and has been bailed out by his ability to slip out of tackles. The Broncos need to make taking Wentz down and closing on plays in the backfield an emphasis in this game. They also need to take advantage of this slight flaw. That means disguising coverages pre-snap and getting after the young quarterback in the pass rushing department. That’ll be easier now that Philly is without their starting left tackle Jason Peters, one of the league’s premier pass protectors.
In the Eagles one loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, Wentz was taken down six times, and the San Francisco 49ers were able to apply pressure fairly consistently a week ago in the Birds’ first game without Peters. The Chiefs mixed things up, throwing all sorts of looks at the young QB, getting him for sacks both on three-man rushes with everyone else dropping in coverage and exotic five-man blitzes with six defenders stacked up on the line.
That’s easier said than done as the Eagles line has been performing at an extremely high level with all starters, grading out as top 15 players at their respective positions per PFF, that is until Peters was knocked out. Attacking that left side with a variety of rushers including moving Von Miller over from time to time will be key, as will the occasional overload blitz to that side.
Part of what has made the Eagles so dangerous is that their receivers are playing extremely well, especially out of the slot. The danger of covering the slot lies in all the various personnel that the Eagles can put there, from the speedier Nelson Agholor to the massive high-point specialist Alshon Jeffrey, to tight end Zach Ertz who’s one of the leagues best at his position. They’ve all been used out of the slot a decent amount this year, and they’ve all produced. All three present different issues, but Ertz is the toughest matchup for Denver, as the ‘D’ has had trouble stopping TEs. Just manning up against all three would be the more logical solution to try and avoid clear mismatches, the danger in that is turning your back on Wentz who’s a real threat to run it or make plays with his arm.
The Eagles have been spectacular on 3rd-and-long this season and are the NFL’s second-best offense in third-down efficiency. The rubber will have to meet the road as the Broncos are the league’s best third-down defense.
Beyond anything else, the Broncos have to eliminate all mistakes, both in scheme and execution. Last week, the Eagles struggled some offensively and didn’t create any big plays aside from a late 53-yard TD by Alshon Jeffrey, who won a contested catch and bullied his way to the end zone. The Eagles survived that game because they managed to string together drives thanks to short passes that were in open pockets, and picking up extra yardage on easy gainers to open receivers on comeback routes. Philly loves to use pick plays, especially in the red zone, and the Broncos will have to fight through and be ready for that. Denver can’t make anything easy; there can’t be any more miscommunications or exploitable matchups that are gifted to the opposing attacks.
It’s all on Brock offensively
The Eagles run defense has been the league’s best, which means there will be even more pressure on the passing game than usual to get things rolling offensively.
Priority one for Osweiler will be staying turnover-free, which he seems to be clear on. That’s certainly easier said than done, as Brock’s last stint as the starter in Orange & Blue ended in large part because of turnovers, the same reason he was eventually benched as the Houston Texans starter.
Keeping the game close is key for the Broncos against the Eagles offense, and staying error free will make that much easier. The dangers of playing from behind are several, but the biggest for Denver offensively is not being able to stay balanced in their play calling. This is also crucial for Philly who have been able to run almost as many times as they’ve dropped back to pass in 2017. If Brock and the offense or even special teams could put up an early score, that would go a long way in getting Denver to commit to the run and get the Eagles away from the ground game. That’s where you want to be.
Like with Peters for the Eagles offense, there are two injuries on the other side of the ball that’ll impact the ability of the Broncos to pass the rock; receiver Emmanuel Sanders and cornerback Ronald Darby, both listed as questionable to play Sunday.
Sanders is a favorite target of Osweiler’s, and if Darby is out, the Eagles are that much easier to exploit in the secondary where their corners are their weakest spot. That’ll mean the former second-round selection will have to pick his spots to test the corners and take advantage of Demaryius Thomas and Sanders’ skills.
The scary part about Philly is their defensive front, which has been beyond dominant and not just against the run, but also in creating pressure. That’ll put the onus on Brock to stand tough in the pocket and deliver timely throws. That he can do, he’s shown it in the past, but it’s not an easy task, especially if it has to be repeated over the course of a game. With the Broncos offensive line struggles, Osweiler’s ability to withstand pressure and make sharp decisions will be crucial. Helping Brock is also important, and a big part of that lies in having lots of crossing routes over the middle and a heavy dose of shotgun-spread looks on offense, where he’s most comfortable.
The Eagles defense has played splendidly this year, but they’re also not perfect. Per football outsiders defensive DVOA, they’re “only” the 15th best unit in the NFL and their passing defense is allowing the 27th most yards of any defense. The front is dominant, but the back seven isn’t perfect if you can block the big uglies up front.
It’s also worth remembering that Brock doesn’t have to be a hero. He’s not expected to play like Wentz; escaping pressure and making big plays with his feet and arm. He simply needs to play within himself, that means not doing too much and knowing when to spare your body of unnecessary hits.
It’ll certainly be a baptism by fire for No. 17 in his return to starting for the Broncos, especially on the road in Philadelphia. The key will be for the Broncos defense to bring Wentz down a few notches and for Brock and the offense to make a couple plays. Do that, and there’s a chance.