With the Denver Broncos bye week upon us, it was time to look back and analyze Trevor Siemian’s first nine starts in the NFL. Siemian, like his offense, has been a mixed bag this season and statistically he certainly hasn’t impressed.

His 225 yards per game are 27th in the NFL and his 60-percent completion percentage is also 27th in the league, defying his perception as a dink-and-dunk precise passer. Siemian’s 12-to-7 touchdown to interception ratio doesn’t exactly inspire confidence either.

But this is all relative really, and we should all be reminded that Brock Osweiler sits behind the Broncos’ starter in every single category we just mentioned. The supporting cast in Denver around the QB has been underwhelming as well, as the running game and pass protection has been a letdown.

Had you told most fans that the o-line and ground attack wouldn’t have improved from 2015 to 2016, most people would have assumed that spelled doom for the defending Super Bowl champs. But with Siemian and an assist from Paxton Lynch—it should be remembered that the Broncos are 6-and-2 when Siemian has played from start to finish—the Broncos are 7-and-3 and fully in play to achieve all their goals.

Listening to all the noise about Siemian and the offense around town, it was time to dig in and assess his season so far as we look forward to the rest of the season.

Accuracy

Siemian’s accuracy has often flashed as a high-level trait in his game and combined with his decision making was probably the skill that most contributed to him winning the starting job.

Siemian’s precision has, at times, showed nicely, particularly in the short-to-intermediate game where he’s made some exceptional throws. In the red zone and on third downs, proverbial “clutch” situations, the Broncos quarterback has made some big time throws in tight windows. Something that he’s able to do with good timing thanks to a superbly quick release.

But this area of his game has been far from perfect. There are times when Trevor’s ball placement isn’t on point, and his accuracy is—simply put—inconsistent.

The first five drives in Oakland are a perfect example of this inconsistency. Certainly, a lacking run game, poor pass protection, and bone-headed penalties affected things, but even in the short-to-intermediate game, Siemian didn’t show enough accuracy to squeeze tight window throws and move the chains.

Another accuracy issue is that the Broncos signal-caller has been prone to throwing behind his targets. Something we saw as recently as this past week against the New Orleans Saints. Far too often Siemian was bailed out by incredible catches, especially by Demaryius Thomas stretching back and making an outstanding one-handed grab on one such throw. If the plan is to slowly carve up defenses with the short passing game, on point ball placement leading receivers is paramount. Consistency is key, and Siemian has had issues with consistency stemming all the way back his time at Northwestern.

Throwing deep

There has been a lot of talk about Siemian’s deep ball… or lack thereof. The last BFR we ran on Siemian was following the win against the Cincinnati Bengals. In that contest, Siemian connected with both Demaryius Thomas deep as well as Emanuel Sanders, showing great footwork and a fairly accurate deep ball in the process.

In a win Week 8 against the San Diego Chargers he again connected with two deep passes to DT and Sanders. Though, again, these throws weren’t the most accurate with both receivers having to make tough catches. But the point here is if you lay the ball out for those types of wideouts, they’ll often come out on top and make the play for you.

While he’s had his moments, No. 13 has struggled with these throws. Down the sideline, he’s too often overthrowing his targets, and due to a lack of weapons over the seam, he hasn’t had many opportunities to throw the ball deep if not to the outside.

Play action has helped some in getting the vertical passing game going but, again, it feels like the offense and its quarterback are leaving a few too many plays on the field.

There’s also a bit of a chicken and egg debate here as Trevor hasn’t thrown deep all that often but that’s in large part because he hasn’t had the best pass protection to let long deep routes unfold. As defenses keep inching closer and closer to the box, the ability to stretch the field could prove crucial for Denver. Heck, even the simple threat or illusion of stretching the field would be monumental in opening up opportunities for the rest of the offense.

As of now, Siemian isn’t getting great protection on deep routes, but when he created time with Sanders and Thomas deep in single coverage he has to make it count. That’s the plain and simple truth of the matter. The Broncos quarterback is averaging 6.97 yards per pass on average, good for 22nd in the league; that’s not awful, but if that were closer to the 7.4-7.5 this passing attack could be quite different.

Below the waist

Footwork is a huge key to quarterback play, at least in the NFL where playing from under center and making plays within the pocket is crucial. This was a huge advantage Siemian had when competing against fellow youngster Paxton Lynch in camp. Coming from a pro-style offense and having a year to learn, Trevor’s feet have always been a plus for him.

Watch his feet and you’ll see that’s a big reason, with his fast and repeatable release, that his accuracy has flashed. Another important trait when it comes to footwork—and executing Gary Kubiak’s offense—is the ability to get out on the edge and make throws on bootleg play action plays. Trevor’s execution on these, at least below the waist, has been mostly positive. Outside factors like a lacking ground game affect the success of these plays as defenses are ready for them, but the execution from Denver’s quarterback is exactly what you need in this offense.

Siemian is a decent athlete; he’s shown some escapability in the pocket and ability to extend plays. This past week he had an outstanding scramble and waited until the last second so that he could throw to the sideline. This play didn’t get Denver the third down conversion, but it did gain an extra seven yards and got the team in better field goal position.

This leads us to Siemian’s poise in the pocket, where he’s a smooth operator for the most part, even with endless pressure in his face. He’s also tough as nails waiting till the last second to take big hits.

Above the shoulders

A quarterbacks mental game is undoubtedly his most important feature. We see this in draft evaluations every single year; we can do all the necessary due diligence in the world, but a players “IQ” or his ability to process and make high-level decisions is very hard to quantify. Particularly at the highest levels of the sport. So before diving in, it must be acknowledged that Siemian isn’t in this spot if not for a high football intelligence, an ability to process a large amount of the game plan.

That has shown this season as Siemian has been a fine decision maker. His seven interceptions are, in large part, affected by poor accuracy and ball placement leading to tipped balls that get intercepted. But he’s also had a few boneheaded reads, such as the interception at the end of the half to Sterling Moore in New Orleans. The QB sees Moore defending the slot and presumes he’ll cut inside following Jordan Norwood. Instead, Moore sits on the route and is in perfect position to jump the pass to Sanders towards the outside.

Siemian has also been a bit prone to bad decisions while under pressure. Not necessarily throwing picks but he has sometimes stalled drives with bad decision making under duress.

An example of this that stands out is a 1st-and-10 against the Oakland Raiders on their 24-yard line at the end of the third quarter. Siemian avoided pressure but then stepped up and threw the ball to the corner in the end zone where there were no receivers. He was subsequently flagged for intentional grounding leading to 2nd-and-20. This completely stalled the drive and any chances of the Broncos scoring a touchdown.

Just as much as making the proper read, getting out the pocket and knowing when to avoid a bad penalty is crucial for this team.

Closing thoughts 

With all that said, everyone can agree that Trevor Siemian has been far from a perfect. Particularly, his consistency on his short-to-intermediate throws needs to get better. His decision making has room for growth, and he could certainly give his receivers more opportunities vertically. Then again, he’s been infinitely more competent than you’d expect out of a seventh-round pick and has handled the burden of carrying the majority of the offensive load admirably. Siemian hasn’t looked inept or out of sorts, and that’s a big win considering how the running game and offensive line play hasn’t made significant strides.

Frankly, had you told us the offensive line and running game were going to be at 2015 levels, you would have been hard-pressed to predict a 7-3 record and Siemian doing even this well. So while it’s important to hold the Broncos young QB to a certain standard of excellence, when you put things into context, his season has been a success.

Beyond all that, we can’t ignore the conversation that’s stirring around town: whether Siemian is a better option at quarterback than first-round rookie Paxton Lynch.

We’ve followed Lynch every step of the way as a pro, scouting his every game in college, throughout the preseason, and his NFL debut.

People are quick to forget that Lynch’s one start this year was not a great performance in a loss to the Atlanta Falcons. Lynch obviously has the higher ceiling, and that’s true even now; he’s more likely to make big plays with his arm deep or by improvising and scrambling. As we’ve seen, though, that’s not going to be the standard.

Paxton will flash those brilliant abilities and might make a few big plays, but on a drive-to-drive basis when trying to execute the full array of the Kubiak playbook, he’s not nearly as competent. His decision making and propensity for turnovers are also going to be a liability. Also, don’t forget the damages that throwing a rookie with Lynch’s pedigree and expectations into the fire could have on his confidence, especially if he’s running for his life.

Like it or not, Siemian is the best man for the job right now, with all the good and bad tied into that. If the Northwestern product can improve on some key deficiencies and become more surgical with his accuracy, the Denver offense should be able to play at a level that’ll sufficiently compliment the defense. Only time will tell now.