The Denver Broncos have a true mystery man on their hands. To media and fans alike, few Broncos are as unknown as Trevor Siemian. After having watched film and given you breakdowns of both Paxton Lynch and Mark Sanchez, it’s time to dig deep on Siemian and figure out truly what kind of player he is.

For starters, Siemian was a very surprising selection in the 2015 Draft, even late in the seventh round. This is because, after a promising 2013 season in which he led Northwestern to a top twenty national ranking, but was also part of a quarterback by committee. He had a terrible 2014 season in which he threw for more interceptions (11) than touchdowns (7). To make things worse, Siemian tore his ACL in the second to last game of the season, and all this seemed to suggest the Northwestern QB wouldn’t be drafted or have any sort of NFL future.

When the Broncos decided to draft him, many thought this was a classic hubris pick, the type we see from other NFL GM’s who’ve had successful track records and make picks completely disregarding a consensus draft value (I’m looking at you, Andy Reid and Bill Belichick). Yet after a promising preseason and encouraging 2016 practices, here we are talking about Siemian as a potential starter despite 99-percent of fans and media barely even knowing anything about the guy.

So it is time to dig in. I charted Siemian’s every snap from five collegiate games (three from 2013 and two from the dreadful 2014 season) while also re-watching every snap he took in the three pre-season games he played in the last year.

Scouting Report

Pros

• Siemian showed good accuracy in the Ohio State game. Especially in sneaking in a short pass over the middle through a double team and burning Bradley Roby. He led receivers well and put the ball in spots where only his receiver could make the play. Accuracy was displayed mostly on short throws. He becomes much less accurate on longer passes.
• Led his receivers with accuracy on the majority of his short to intermediate throws.
• Against his best competition faced in college (OSU), Siemian showed lots of promise as a dink and dunk QB and looked comfortable taking what a very talented defense gave him.
• While his arm strength did look a little suspect at times in his Northwestern tape, he’s also shown promising arm talent; zinging passes to the sideline and showing better zip and accuracy on middle to intermediate throws.
• Siemian stood out for his poise in the pocket, and his ability to go through his progressions, he was advanced for a collegiate quarterback in these facets of the game.
• Siemian showed a live arm and quick release when at his best, especially on 2013 tape and seemed to show some of the same form in the preseason.
• While he showed some promise but also major inconsistencies throughout his college tape, there was a game against Syracuse in 2013 in which he simply dominated, putting everything together and demonstrating what he can be at his very best. Here’s a smothering of notes from that game:
  • Accuracy/arm strength to squeeze the ball into tight windows was on display in this contest.
  • Shows off great touch and a nice spiral in throwing ball over the top to Vitale (TE) for a TD.
  • Arm strength is extremely promising, especially on tight window throws. Looked like Jared freaking Goff at times
  • Regularly made tough throws on intermediate to long passes, showing off a great spiral, ability to lead receiver and put the ball in tight windows.
  • Shows off great touch and arm strength. Also, footwork looked very balanced in this game, just carved up the ‘Cuse ‘D’.
• Siemian can throw a pretty deep ball, there are flashes of him being able to throw deep over the top on beautiful spirals with great touch, to zing passes over the deep middle in traffic, as well as the ability to make tight window throws to the sideline and over the middle. There are definite flashes of a strong NFL-caliber arm.
• Impressive with his touch.
• Hangs tough in the pocket and throws a great TD pass in a tight window. Flashes this high-level poise in the pocket and accuracy/ability to lead targets and touch throughout his collegiate tape.
• Great throw with pressure in his face toward the sideline.
• Nice 3rd-and-3 play action fake, goes to TE on the outside for an easy completion. That could be a lot of what Kubiak asks of him.
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• Shows some ability as a scrambler and ability to throw on bootlegs or with some movement. Not a great runner and underwhelming throwing on the run, but can complete designed plays, like bootleg play actions.

Cons

• Siemian’s biggest weakness on his collegiate tape is his inconsistency. Game-to-game and throw-to-throw his mechanics and accuracy will vary.
• He is not a great athlete for NFL standards. Of the Broncos QB’s, he’s by far the least equipped to make throws on the run or improvised plays do to some of his athletic limitations.
• Siemian misses some throws that he’s made in other instances. He missed a wide open receiver for what could have been a big gain (vs. Wisconsin), and he’s also sailed some throws high (mostly over the middle in traffic), while also under throwing sideline throws. He also underthrew a ball over the top of the DB and got intercepted against Northern Illinois. Inconsistencies are very much there.
• He was used almost exclusively out of the shotgun in college. While he did play in an offense with far more pro concepts than say Paxton Lynch at Memphis, he’s still going to have to adjust to playing from under center. He’ll have to improve his footwork on drops. His best throws in the preseason came out of shotgun formations as well.
• Siemian’s completion percentages throughout his collegiate career and NFL preseason have always been fairly low. While he flashes good/great accuracy and ball placement, his inconsistencies are preventing him from being a high completion percentage QB. If he’s going to be a game-manager for the Broncos, he’ll need to show significant improvement.
• His footwork is good, not great.  Not very quick-footed, needs to have his feet set to excel and transfer his weight from his back foot to his front side. Had some issues trying to make back footed throws and got into trouble, natural arm strength is lacking compared to bigger NFL QBs in these situations.
• He oddly shared snaps and played in a QB by committee role throughout the 2013 season.
• Siemian’s arm strength was a little suspect, lower body weight was a bit backloaded leading him to leave passes short. Did the same in other games, the sideline throw is where his arm looked weakest.
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• Siemian was not particularly effective or consistent on third downs. He completed only 46-percent of 3rd down conversions in 2013, was better in 2014 at 56-percent conversion rate where he excelled on short 1-3 yard conversions and 7-9 yards, completing over 70-percent. Wildly inconsistent on “money” downs, generally speaking.

Summary

When looking at Trevor Siemian’s statistical output as a whole, you notice two very surprising things. First is that his completion percentages are on the low side throughout his career, having always been under 60-percent completion levels in college and completing 23 of 40 passes in the 2015 preseason (57-percent). While he flashes an accurate arm, the ability to lead receivers, as well as the precision and strength to put balls into tight windows, Siemian is inconsistent.

He will underthrow passes or sail them, and has also had his fair share of stinkers like a 4 of 13 for 36 yards and 1 INT performance against Nebraska in 2013 or a 8 of 18 for 68-yard performance against Iowa in 2014. He has those flashes of brilliance, like the 2013 game against Syracuse or the preseason games in the first two weeks but also has just inconsistent throws and lower body mechanics.

Siemian has raised his game against tough opponents, managing the game against Ohio State in 2013 (ranked fourth in the nation at the time) and almost pulling off the upset or beating 13th-ranked Wisconsin in 2014 for a big upset. He also played impressively in the preseason after having had knee surgery nine months prior.

Siemian has an intriguing skill set for the Broncos. While I feel confident saying he has the lowest ceiling of any Broncos QB he does have some potential as a game manager, who can take what the defense gives him and move the chains while also showing some talent to make tougher NFL throws.

That might not scream quarterback of the future, but it could be just the skill set the Broncos are searching for in their signal caller, who merely needs to avoid mistakes and make plays that are there and not put the offense on his shoulders. Add the fact that Siemian is getting healthier and improving/growing and he might make more special throws than he did at Northwestern. While his profile isn’t exactly sexy, he does have the skills to compete for snaps at the NFL level.