Broncos’ Draft Positioning: How Denver can easily land a top-10 pick in the 2022 NFL Draft

At 7-8 with two games left, the Denver Broncos’ playoff odds are a fraction of one percent. Literally. Their hopes for making the postseason are all but over.

But don’t say these final two games are meaningless. When it comes to draft positioning, these final two games will make a world of difference where George Paton and the Broncos are selecting in the first round.

Here’s where Denver currently is slated to pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, how high they can jump up, how far they can fall in draft order and who to cheer for to better the Broncos’ draft position.

Current 2022 NFL Draft Order

1. 2-13 Jacksonville Jaguars
2. 2-12-1 Detroit Lions
3. 4-11 Houston Texans
4. 4-11 New York Jets
5. 4-11 New York Giants
6. New York Jets via 5-10 Seattle Seahawks
7. 5-10 Carolina Panthers
8. New York Giants via 5-10 Chicago Bears
9. 6-9 Washington Football Team
10. 7-8 Atlanta Falcons
11. 7-8 Denver Broncos
12. 7-8 Minnesota Vikings
13. 7-8 New Orleans Saints
14. 7-8 Cleveland Browns
15. 7-7-1 Pittsburgh Steelers
16. 8-7 Los Angeles Chargers
17. 8-7 Las Vegas Raiders
18. 8-7 Baltimore Ravens

The Potential Rise

Crazy enough, the Broncos went from the thick of the playoff mix to currently sitting just outside of the top 10 in draft order.

But cracking the top 10 isn’t the limit of how far Denver can catapult in the draft. In fact, the Broncos still have a chance to make it as high as the sixth-overall pick.

Denver can thank their last-place schedule for more than just facing easy opponents in 2021. They can greatly benefit in their 2022 draft positioning from it too.

Unlike tiebreakers for the playoffs, NFL tiebreakers for draft order are based purely on strength of schedule. If two teams are tied with identical records, the team with the easier strength of schedule will get the better pick.

Entering Week 17, the Broncos .482 strength of schedule is currently the second easiest among the 18 teams not slated to make the playoffs. That means if all 18 teams had the same record, the Broncos would have the second-overall pick.

Only the 7-8 Falcons (.462) have an easier strength of schedule among teams not currently in the playoffs.

What Denver Needs to Jump to No. 6

In order for the Broncos to end the season with the sixth-overall pick, they will need the following:

• The 5-10 Panthers, 5-10 Seahawks and 5-10 Bears to win out:
  • Panthers
    • Week 17 @ Saints
    • Week 18 vs Buccaneers
  • Seahawks
    • Week 17 vs Lions
    • Week 18 @ Cardinals
  • Bears
    • Week 17 vs Giants
    • Week 18 @ Vikings
• At least one win from the 6-9 Football Team and the 7-8 Falcons:
  • Washington Football Team
    • Week 17 vs Eagles
    • Week 18 @ Giants
  • Falcons
    • Week 17 @ Bills
    • Week 18 vs Saints
• The 7-8 Broncos to lose out:
  • Week 17 @ Chargers
  • Week 18 vs Chiefs

If all of that happens, the 7-10 Broncos will have the sixth pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. Of course, if just some of this happens, Denver won’t be able to jump all the way to six, but they can easily crack the top 10.

The Potential Fall

On the flip side, the Broncos can drastically worsen their draft positioning over the next two weeks. In fact, they can fall all the way to pick 18—the final slot for non-playoff teams—if they win out. There is, of course, the incredibly slim chance—less than 0.1 percent—they make the playoffs. If that miraculously happens, then they can fall even further.

But for all practical purposes, the 18th pick is the furthest they will slide, and even then a lot would have to happen.

How Denver Falls to No. 18

For the Broncos to plummet to the 18-overall pick, the following would have to happen:

• The 8-7 Chargers and 8-7 Raiders to lose their Week 17 game and tie each other in Week 18:
  • Chargers
    • Week 17 vs Broncos
    • Week 18 @ Raiders
  • Raiders
    • Week 17 @ Colts
    • Week 18 vs Chargers
• At least one loss from the 7-8 Vikings and 7-8 Saints
  • Vikings
    • Week 17 @ Packers
    • Week 18 vs Bears
  • Saints
    • Week 17 vs Panthers
    • Week 18 @ Falcons
• And the following to happen:
  • The 8-7 Ravens to lose out
    • Week 17 vs Rams
    • Week 18 vs Steelers
  • The 7-7-1 Steelers to lose to the 7-8 Browns in Week 17 and beat the 8-7 Ravens in Week 18
  • The Browns to beat the Steelers in Week 17 and lose to the Bengals in Week 18
• The Broncos win out:
  • Week 17 @ Chargers
  • Week 18 vs Chiefs

Fortunately, it’s unlikely Denver falls all the way to the 18th-overall pick.

Who to Cheer for This Weekend

With playoffs out of sight, the best thing for the Broncos the final two weeks is to improve their draft position. Here’s who Denver should be rooting for this week in order for them to move up in the draft.

• 8-7 Eagles @ 6-9 Washington Football Team — Sunday, 11:00 AM
  • The Broncos benefit from teams with worse records than them winning. Go Football Team
• 11-4 Rams @ 8-7 Ravens — Sunday, 11:00 AM
  • The Ravens currently have the 18th pick, but with their 8-7 record, Denver could easily slip into their draft range after a win and a Baltimore loss. Go Ravens
• 8-7 Dolphins @ 10-5 Titans — Sunday, 11:00 AM
  • Go ‘Fins
• 8-7 Raiders @ 9-6 Colts — Sunday, 11:00 AM
  • Despite beating Denver last week, Las Vegas is still too close for comfort with the Broncos. Go Raiders
• 4-11 Giants @ 5-10 Bears — Sunday, 11:00 AM
  • The Broncos can’t catch the Giants in the draft order, so New York losing doesn’t benefit Denver. However, Chicago losing could really help the Broncos. Go Bears
• 7-8 Falcons @ 9-6 Bills — Sunday, 11:00 AM
  • Atlanta is the only non-playoff team with an easier strength of schedule, that’s why despite having the same record as Denver, they are one spot ahead of the Broncos. Denver needs them to win a game or two down the stretch. Go Falcons
• 4-11 Texans @ 8-7 49ers — Sunday, 2:05 PM
  • Much like the Giants, the Texans are too far out of reach for the Broncos to jump in the draft. Because of that, it’s best for the 49ers to separate themselves from Denver and win. Go 49ers
• 7-8 Broncos @ 8-7 Chargers — Sunday, 2:05 PM
  • This one is in the name of draft positioning. Go Chargers
• 5-10 Panthers @ 7-8 Saints — Sunday, 2:25 PM
  • Denver needs Carolina to win both of their games in order for the Broncos to jump them in the draft. Go Panthers
• 2-12-1 Lions @ 5-10 Seahawks — Sunday, 2:25 PM
  • Denver can’t catch the Lions. Go Seahawks
• 7-8 Vikings @ 12-3 Packers — Sunday, 6:20 PM
  • George Paton’s current team is tied with George Paton’s former team. For George Paton to have a better draft pick than his former team, he would benefit from Minnesota winning a game or two. Go Vikings