Broncos’ Draft Positioning: Denver’s path to securing a top-10 pick

The Denver Broncos are officially eliminated from the playoffs, making Saturday’s game against the Kansas City Chiefs meaningless in their search for the postseason.

But Saturday means a whole lot in terms of where they’ll be picking in the draft.

And a top-10 pick is within their grasp.

Here’s where Denver’s currently slated to pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, how far they can jump up, how low they can fall in draft order and who to cheer for in Week 18.

Current 2022 NFL Draft Order

1. 2-14 Jacksonville Jaguars
2. 2-13-1 Detroit Lions
3. 4-12 Houston Texans
4. 4-12 New York Jets
5. 4-12 New York Giants
6. 5-11 Carolina Panthers
7. New York Jets via 6-10 Seattle Seahawks
8. New York Giants via 6-10 Chicago Bears
9. 6-10 Washington Football Team
10. 7-9 Atlanta Falcons
11. 7-9 Denver Broncos
12. 7-9 Minnesota Vikings
13. 7-9 Cleveland Browns
14. Philadelphia Eagles via 8-8 Miami Dolphins
15. 8-8 New Orleans Saints
16. 8-8 Baltimore Ravens
17. 8-7-1 Pittsburgh Steelers
18. 9-7 Las Vegas Raiders

The Potential Rise

Although Denver didn’t move a single spot in the draft last week, they still have a mighty fine chance of entering the top 10 this week. A win from either Seattle, Chicago, the Washington Football Team or Atlanta, along with Denver losing, will secure the Broncos a pick in the top 10.

The highest Denver camp jump is to pick seven.

What Denver Needs to Jump to No. 7

In order for the Broncos to end the season with the 7th-overall pick, they will need the following:

• 6-10 Seahawks to beat the 11-5 Cardinals
• 6-10 Bears to beat the 7-9 Vikings
• 6-10 Football Team to beat the 4-12 Giants
• 7-9 Falcons to beat the 8-8 Saints
• 7-9 Broncos to lose to the 11-5 Chiefs

As long as Denver loses to Kansas City on Sunday—which the double-digit point spread indicates will happen—the Broncos will gain one draft spot for every above team that wins.

The Potential Fall

On the other hand, the Broncos could fall nearly to the middle of the first round if things don’t go their way this weekend. The furthest they could slide is to pick No. 14.

How Denver Falls to No. 14

For the Broncos to plummet to the 14th-overall pick, the following would have to happen:

• 7-9 Vikings to lose to the 6-10 Bears
• 7-9 Browns to lose to the 10-6 Bengals
• 8-8 Dolphins to lose to the 10-6 Patriots
• 7-9 Broncos to beat the 11-5 Chiefs

There are currently two other 8-8 teams in the NFL, along with the Dolphins, but thanks to the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker, even if the Broncos finish with the same record as the Saints and Ravens, Denver will finish with a better draft pick.

However, the same cannot be said if they have the same record as the Dolphins. The Eagles—via the Dolphins—will jump Denver in the draft if Miami and Denver both finish 8-9. That’s why the Broncos, if they somehow beat the Chiefs, would need Miami to beat New England.

If the Broncos beat the Chiefs, Denver will slide one pick in the draft for every team above that loses.

Who to Cheer for This Weekend

With playoffs officially out of sight, the best thing for the Broncos the final week of the season is to improve their draft position. Here’s who Denver should be rooting for this week in order for them to move up in the draft.

• 11-5 Chiefs @ 7-9 Broncos — Saturday, 2:30 PM
  • If Denver beats Kansas City, the best pick they’ll have is No. 11. If they lose, they have a chance at moving on up.
• 6-10 Bears @ 7-9 Vikings — Sunday, 11:00 AM
  • If the Broncos pull off the massive upset and beat the Chiefs, Denver will want Minnesota to win to prevent them from dropping in the draft. However, if Kansas City takes care of business, Denver will want the Bears to win so the Broncos can jump them in the draft. Since the Chiefs will likely beat the Broncos, Go Bears
• 6-10 Football Team @ 4-12 Giants — Sunday, 11:00 AM
  • Denver can’t catch the Giants in the draft, so it’s best if the Football Team wins. Go WFT
• 8-8 Saints @ 7-9 Falcons — Sunday, 11:00 AM
  • An Atlanta win, coupled with a Denver loss, will catapult the Broncos ahead of the Falcons in the draft. Go Falcons
• 6-10 Seahawks @ 11-5 Cardinals — Sunday, 2:25 PM
  • This one is easy. Go Hawks